Friday June 11, 2004 - 13:56:50 GMT
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Daily Forex Commentary by Global Forex Trading - June 11, 2004 8:00 GMT
Daily Commentary By Cornelius Luca, GFT Forex Analyst
The dollar fell sharply across the board on Thursday on profit taking ahead of the Federal holiday on Friday in memory of President Reagan. The pound was slow to join the party, but managed to rally eventually. Trading should be thin and quiet.
The euro/dollar recovered some of its Wednesday’s losses but more is needed to confirm a recovery.
Initial resistance is at 1.2124 from its 20-day moving average. A break above a Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2148 would signal the end of the downmove and send the euro/dollar back up to 1.2226. The pair still has pivotal resistance at 1.2387.
Below 1.2020, there still is support at 1.1910. A break lower would signal a decline to the nearby support at 1.1893. Distant pivotal support remains at 1.1771.
Oscillators are edging lower.
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
Dollar/yen reversed all of its Wednesday’s gains on Thursday and remains under selling pressure. Expect further choppy trading today.
Key support remains at 109.15 from the 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65, and at 109.05 from the May 31 low. A break lower would signal a test at 108.64 and at 108.29, but this should not happen on Friday.
Initial resistance emerges at 110.08 and a break higher would target 110.91 Distant resistance remains at 111.60 from the 50-point pivot that targets 112.10 and 111.10.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
Sterling/dollar first collapsed on profit taking to 1.8186 after the BoE hiked rates once again by 25 basis points. The pair then mounted a sharp reversal on Thursday to reach 1.8444. The pair should now consolidate for the day.
Above 1.8444, the pair has resistance at 1.8484. There is further distant resistance at 1.8603, but this level should not be seen.
Sterling/dollar has initial support at 1.8312. A break would target 1.8229. A retest of Thursday’s low of 1.8186 is unlikely for Friday.
Oscillators are edging lower.
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly higher
LONG-TERM: Slightly higher
On Thursday, dollar/Swiss franc trimmed most of its gains made in the previous day.
If the pair continues its decline, expect a test of the support at 1.2430. If this level breaks, then expect a test of the support level at 1.2320.
Dollar/Swiss franc has resistance at 1.2575 and a break higher would target the 1.2600 area. An unexpected break above 1.2787 would signal a rally to 1.2805.
Oscillators are rising.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
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