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Friday July 8, 2005 - 10:42:34 GMT
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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• Unless there are repeat attacks in the short-term, the impact of yesterday’s events on markets and the UK economy should be muted.

• A rebuilding of the long USD positions automatically cut back yesterday leaves additional downside bias to EUR-USD, but much will depend upon employment report.

• Japanese machinery orders disappoint.

• Canadian employment report also features today

Market Outlook

The terrorist events seen in London yesterday can never be fully discounted, but there has been a sense of inevitability in financial markets and broader society about the likelihood of such an action and this has clearly helped to absorb the shock. As a result, the impact on markets and the workings of the UK macro-economy may turn out to be quite muted, unless there are repeat events in the short-term. Indeed, the ability to overcome the impact of the attacks seems to be generating some kind of perverse euphoria in the UK equity market this morning, with most of the key indices above the levels seen just before the explosions began yesterday.

GBP is not faring as well as the threat of rate cuts remains in place, although it should stabilise a little further against the EUR after the losses seen yesterday. The big problem is on cable, where technically there is still downside risk (to 1.7080) as long as it remains below the 1.7460-80 area. 0.6900 should cap EUR-GBP in the short-term. Clearly, the broader USD trend and the tone of the US employment report will ultimately be of significance for cable.

The prospect of a UK rate cut may have increased as a result of yesterday’s events, but only marginally so. The way the data has been stacking up (especially the much weaker past GDP profile we talked about yesterday) the MPC was probably already well on the route to a cut at the time of the August Inflation Report. They have to be careful though. The last thing they would want to do is to reignite a housing market they were desperate to cool just a year ago.

On EUR-USD, the strength seen yesterday was clearly a case of higher uncertainty and risk aversion prompting a cutback in existing long USD positioning. However, this may actually work in the USD’s favour in the short-term. The decks may have been partially cleared and the possible rebuilding of these positions could see more EUR-USD weakness. This is the bias in the short-term, but a decent employment report will be required today to generate such a move.

Japanese machinery orders showed a disappointing 6.7% m/m fall in May and this came after a 1.0% decline in April. However, while this is clearly disappointing, the data is volatile and the 3-m average for the series it still showing a general uptrend (see chart). Still, it will not aid the JPY in the short-term given the backdrop of high oil prices and USD strength and this will leave USD-JPY even more vulnerable to further upside if EUR-USD does weaken further short-term. 112.50 is the first barrier on USD-JPY.

Day Ahead
Canada – labour market data is due and in recent months employment has been advancing well. Another solid report today will continue to support growing rate hike expectations, especially ahead of Tuesday’s BoC meeting, although key will be next Wednesday’s trade and exports data. The latest Monetary Policy Report Update is due on Thursday. USD-CAD downside is favoured in the short-term, although decent data is required for this to happen.

US – last month’s employment report was disappointing and another such outcome today would leave the market a little flat. However, there is sufficient evidence of output growth and housing market strength for Fed rate hike expectations to remain protected in the short-term. It will take a fairly bad number today (below 100k) to generate a major impact.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

CA Employment (Jun) 07.00 +20k
CA Unemployment rate (Jun) 07.00 6.8%
SE Ind prod (May) m/m 07.00 +0.5%
SE Ind orders (May) m/m 07.00 +1.2%
US Non-farm payrolls (Jun) 08.30 +200k
US Unemployment rate (Jun) 08.30 5.1%
US Average workweek (Jun) 08.30 33.8
US Hourly earnings (Jun) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Fed’s Hoenig speaks 13.30
US Consumer credit (May) m/m 15.00 $4.0bn

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP M2 plus CDs (Jun) y/y +1.7% +1.6%
JP Household spending (May) y/y -2.0% -2.2%
JP Machinery orders (May) m/m -6.7% -1.9%
DE Current account (May) €5.2bn €7.0bn
DE Trade balance (May) €12.0bn €13.4bn
DE Ind prod (May) m/m -0.2% -0.4%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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