Sunday July 10, 2005 - 21:13:26 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning ReportNew Zealand Dollar: NZD looks to recover after softer US data
NZD/USD looked to rally on Friday as the downward trend ran out of steam and US non-farm payrolls came out lower than expected. The NZD has been firmly entrenched in a downtrend for the past 10 days and has struggled to find demand. US payrolls data, a widely watched labour market indicator, came out softer than anticipated which provided brief respite for the NZD. However the details behind the data indicated slight upward revisions and were slightly more upbeat than the headline number. The NZD drifted lower from the early morning high at 0.6742 down to 0.6688 on the London open. Demand seemed to emerge in the London market and, following the US data, the NZD managed to take back its intraday losses and rally back to 0.6748. It opens today at 0.6735.
Australian Dollar: AUD regains some lost ground
The AUD managed to reverse its early morning losses and stage a late rally on Friday. AUD/USD has been suffering the same fate as its trans-Tasman neighbour in that it has been trending downwards in a market that has little appetite to hold it. The AUD was given a reprieve by the weaker US data and reversed the sell-off that materialised early local time. AUD/USD opened around 0.7400 and weakened to 0.7372 in fairly lacklustre trading. A base was found around 0.7370 and demand took the currency back to 0.7444 following the US data and closed at 0.7430
Major Currencies: USD pares gains after payroll report
The USD traded in familiar ranges during the domestic session on Friday. Having recovered after the initial sell off immediately following the news of the terrorist attacks on London's Tube, the greenback traded between 1.1925-48 against the euro
and 112.00-39 against the yen
. In the offshore session, all attention was focused on the release of June's non-farm payroll numbers. While the headline figure of 146k was below market expectations of 190k, both the April and May numbers were revised higher. In addition, the unemployment rate dipped from 5.1% to 5.0%. The USD initially spiked higher following the employment report, with the yen and Sterling trading 14 and 19 month lows of 112.61 and 1.7310 respectively. However these USD gains proved short lived as the disappointing headline number led the US currency to pare recent gains. The USD open this morning at 1.1975 and 112.10 against the euro and yen, and 1.7385 against the Pound.
Japanese machinery orders fell 6.7% in May. .
This is weaker than expected, an essentially ensures a quarterly contraction. Manufacturing orders fell sharply, more than reversing their April rise. Non-manufacturing orders ground slightly higher. Orders from domestic sources were slightly stronger than the aggregate.
US non-farm payrolls up 146k in June. .
With revisions, employment was up 190k in June, and by 542k in the second quarter, much the same as Q1's 546k. Even so, the monthly jobs profile does suggest a slight slowing in growth later in the second quarter, that doesn't quite gel with the up-beat vibe of most other indicators, including the clear upswing in consumer and business confidence (except in Philadelphia!) in June. This may still reflect "give back" from April's 292k surge. Construction and retail jobs in particular did not perform as well as we expected in June, given improved weather and sales indicators.
Canadian jobs up 14k in June. .
Although jobs growth slowed to within a whisker of Westpac's 15k forecast, the detail was encouraging, with full-time jobs up 52k, and private sector jobs up 19k both following solid gains in the previous month. We no longer expect the Bank of Canada to tighten rates on July 12, nevertheless data like this is consistent with a rate rise later this year.
German industrial production down 0.2% in May.
The decline in production was not as steep as we expected, continuing the recent run of not quite so bad data out of Germany/Europe, that will reinforce the conviction of the ECB that rate cuts are not appropriate.
Country Release Last Forecast
11 Jul Aust May housing finance (no.) 0.6% flat
Can Jun housing starts 219k 228k
12 Jul NZ Q2 NZIER Business Confid -28.2%
Aust Jun NAB business survey 13 n/f
Jpn Jun corporate goods prices %yr 1.8% 1.6%
Jun consumer confidence 48.2 48.4
Bank of Japan meeting
Latest Research papers/Publication
NZ Q2 Employment Confidence Index (6 July)
NZ Economic Overview July 2005 (4 July)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (4 July)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (4 July)
A capital idea (1 July)
NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (28 June)
NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (27 June)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Banks website (www.wib.westpac.co.nz)
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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