Sunday July 10, 2005 - 22:32:05 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 11th July 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.1986 ... 1.2011 ... 1.2040 ... 1.2076
Support....: 1.1946 ... 1.1917 ... 1.1898 ... 1.1864
We feel there is a risk of seeing further range trading
No break of 1.1864 and although the wave structure is a little unclear we tend to favor range trading again today. We feel support will come in around 1.1900 abut we should get no higher than 1.2011. Thus only above 1.2011 would trigger additional strength back to 1.2040 and possibly 1.2076.
Failure to move below 1.1864 tends to suggest we shall probably have to wait just another day - maybe two - before the downtrend resumes. Support is at 1.1898 and breach here would revert to a bearish stance with a move below 1.1864 signaling losses down to 1.1794 at least and probably 1.1750-60 which should hold on the day.
Elliott Wave Comments:
8th July 2005
The sharp reversal back to 1.2040 which came in a Double Zig Zag from 1.1864 suggests this was more likely to be Wave -b- of Wave [v]. Thus it would imply that we are either in a more complex sideways move (unlikely because of the structure of Wave -b-) or that Wave -c- has begun. If this is right, then we'd expect a direct move down to 1.1758-80 where Wave -c- would equal Wave -a- and where there is a major weekly corrective low.
11th July 2005
While the rally from 1.1864 to 1.2040 would not appear to support the possibility of a complex correction the depth of the recovery from 1.1871 on Friday does raise the chance of a sideways consolidation - but this should turn into weakness once the consolidation is complete. Thus we tentatively label the 1.2040 peak as Wave a and we think it likely that 1.1871 was wave b. However, always keep in mind the downside risk with loss of 1.1864 suggesting direct resumption and a move to 1.1750-60 being a 138.2% projection of the intial wave down from 1.2040 - 1.1871.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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