Friday December 28, 2012 - 03:55:29 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 28-Dec-2012 -0352 GMT
Dow Jones (13096.31, -0.14%) recovered from the day’s low, as President Obama and the law makers will be continuing the talks on the “Cliff” today evening. While Dow stays below 13200 a dip to 12900-850 can still be seen. New home sales were slightly disappointing at 377K against expected of 382K.
All of A-Pac are in the green with Australia (4692, +0.65%), Hang Seng (22660.63, +0.18%) and Taiwan (7689, +0.52%). Asia does not seem to be much worried about the Cliff though the impact would be negative if no deal is reached.
Shanghai (2207.94, +0.09%) is in a positive mode/mood but has good resistance ahead at 2260 and also seems overbought on the daily charts. A corrective fall to 2150-30 is possible on a strong break below 2200.
Nikkei (10403, +0.77%) closed just below its 10350 resistance yesterday but has bounced back above this Resistance again today. Today’s closing will be very important as a weekly close above this resistance will confirm that the upside is still open for further rise.
Nifty (5870.10, -0.60%) had a volatile expiry as it corrected inside its 5950-850 range. The outlook remains positive for a rise of 6000+ in the coming weeks.
Oil continues its rise as it continues to look good, Gold has bounced but we need to wait for a conformation, Silver has not avoided a fall to 29 yet and Copper can see a rise to 3.70
Nymex Crude (91.29, +0.46%) has risen further as expected and is targeting 94-95 in the near/medium term and can go further up as well. It has some resistance near 92-93 levels but is likely to be broken.
Brent (110.97, +0.15%) is close to its 111-12 resistance on the break of which a further rise towards 122 can be seen.
Gold (1664.30, +0.04%) has bounced from 1650 support on the weekly charts we need to wait for a conformation of this rise. The down trend might get over here if a strong rise is seen from current levels.
Silver (30.30, +0.20%) is moving sideways from the past few days but looks likely to dip to 29.00. The bigger 35.50-26 range continues to hold.
Copper (3.62, +0.53%) has bounced from its support on the 3-day and the weekly charts and can continue this rally to 3.
Yen remains weak on stimulus speculation while the other currencies looks to broadly ranged but with a sligth bearish bias against the Dollar in the near term as the market is bit cautious on the US fiscal cliff. The Dollar-Index (79.68) remains flat with chances of seeing 80.00-20 on the upside in the near term.
The Euro (1.3241) is continuing to get Resistance near 1.3300 and could be ranged between 1.3150 and 1.3300. Dollar-Yen (86.38) has met our first target of 86.50 and remains strong to test our second target of 87.20 as well. The Euro-Yen Cross (114.39) remains strong and is heading towards our upside target of 115.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9130) is continuing to get Support from 0.9100-9085 Support region and cna remain ranged between 0.9085 and 0.9180. The Pound (1.6109) failed to rise past 1.6200 yesterday and looks weak for a test of 1.6000 on the downside. Aussie (1.0372) is absolutely flat in between 1.0345 and 1.0390 now and the immediate outlook is not clear.
In, Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2230) remains above 1.2200 and can rise to 1.2300 while above 1.2200. Dollar-Rupee (54.93/94) has bounced back yesterday and could be ranged between 54.50 and 55.25 in the near term.
The Spanish 10Yr yield has moved up slightly by 2bps to 5.28% while the German 10yr yield has come down 6bps to 1.32%. This has pushed up Spain-German yiled spread by 8bps to 3.96%. The spread has immediate Resistance at 4% which needs to be watched. A rise above 4% can take it up towards 4.25% which is a strong Resistance on the upside. A further rise above 4.25% is not looking likely. In the bigger picture we expect the spread to fall to 3.50% and may be even lower.
The US 10Yr yield has come down by 3bps to quote at 1.74%. As we have been mentioning for some time, the 10yr yield could remain ranged between 1.60% and 1.90% in the coming days and it looks like the yield is now turning down towards the lower end of this range.
23:15 GMT or 5:45 IST PMI JP
23:30 GMT or 6:00 IST JP Unemp
US Cons Conf
...Actual 65.1 ...Previous 71.5
Nov US New Home Sales
...Actual 377K ...Previous 361K
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