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Friday December 28, 2012 - 11:04:46 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Potential US sovereign downgrade concerns provide a headwind for risk appetite in session; USD and JPY reverse earlier weakness

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Potential US sovereign downgrade concerns provide a headwind for risk appetite in session; USD and JPY reverse earlier weakness
Fri, 28 Dec 2012 5:40 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Nikkei225 Index ends 2012 +23% at 10,395 with its best annual performance since 2005
- Last-Ditch Fiscal Cliff Talks Planned; House Returning Sunday as Cliff Deadline Looms
- Concerns that the US sovereign rating would be downgraded with the fiscal cliff impasse and hampering risk appetite
- France Q3 Final GDP revised lower
- Bank of Spain (BOS) Monthly Economic Bulletin Q4 economic activity contracted
- Japan Fin Min: not seeking a drastic decline in the JPY currency
- Italy sells upper end of range in 5-year and 10-year bond sale; borrowing costs rise slightly from two-year lows

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Dec 24th (RUB): No est v 7.37T prior
- (FI) Finland Nov Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: +1.7% v -0.1% prior
- (HU) Hungary Q3 Current Account: 780M v 628Me
- (TH) Thailand Nov Current Account: $392M v $240Me; Total Trade Account Balance: +$630M v -$146M prior; Overall Trade Balance: $1.2B v -$1.3B prior
- (TH) Thailand Nov Business Sentiment Index: 52.0 v 52.1 prior
- (FR) France Q3 Final Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1%e
- (FR) France Nov Consumer Spending M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.6%e
- (ES) Spain Nov Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.8% v -10.3%e; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.8% v -8.4% prior
- (TR) Turkey Nov Trade Balance: -$7.2B v -$6.0Be
- (EU) ECB: 16.0B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 16.3B prior; 252.0B parked in deposit facility vs. 221.6B prior
- (AT) Austria Nov Producer Price Index M/M: -0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.7% prior
- (CH) SNB releases Nov balance sheet data: Foreign Currency Investments: CHF428.3B v CHF426.8B m/m
- (SE) Sweden Nov Trade Balance (SEK): 3.6B v 4.0Be
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Producer Confidence: -5.7 v -6.5e
- (SE) Sweden Oct Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7% prior
- (SE) Sweden Nov Retail Sales M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.0%e
- (IT) Italy Nov PPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1%e
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Hesse M/M: +0.9% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 1.8% prior
- (ES) Spain Oct Current Account: +0.9B v -0.4B prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 2020, 2025 and 2042 bonds
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.88B vs. 6.0B indicated in 2017 and 2022 BTP bonds
- Sold 2.87B vs. 3.0B indicated in 3.5% Nov 2017 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 3.26% v 3.23% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.29x v 1.24x prior
- Sold 3.0B vs. 3.0B indicated in 5.5% Nov 2022 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 4.48% v 4.45% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.47x v 1.18x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 89.7B vs. 73Be in 6-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75%

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.05% at 5,952, DAX -0.30% at 7,631, CAC-40 -0.80% at 3,646, IBEX-35 -1.4% at 8,163, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 16,340, SMI -0.10% at 6,858, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,409

- Following the mixed open, European equity markets are mostly lower, led by weakness in the Spanish IBEX-35 index. Markets continue to focus on the developments related to the US budget talks. Later today, US President Obama is expected to meet with various Congressional leaders at around 3:00 p.m. EST. Also, US House Republicans are due to resume their legislative session on Sunday, Dec 30th. In terms of specific sectors, banks are mostly lower, led by BBVA, BNP, Commerzbank and Santander. Resources related firms have largely tracked the gains in copper and oil prices.

-Germany movers [Porsche +6% (favorable court ruling; Prosieben -1% (fined by Germany's cartel office)]
- UK movers [Lonmin -1% (CEO to resign)]
- Italy movers [Enel -0.90% (concerns regarding 2013 dividend)]
- Spain movers [Bankia -24% (to be removed from the IBEX-35 index)]

Speakers:
- German Bundestag (lower house) President Lammert (CDU) stated that Greece aid was within Parliament's framework and the approval of 49.1B aid tranche was correct
- Bank of Spain monthly bulletin reiterated its view that Q4 economic activity contracted
- Japan Fin Min Aso stated that he sought an agreement with BoJ on inflation target before next meeting in Jan. He also noted that the US should seek a strong dollar but that Japan was not seeking a drastic decline in the JPY currency. Only Japan had abided by G20 accord regarding competitive currency devaluation. Other country's had no right to lecture Japan on currency policy
- Japan Econ Min Amari stated that it was in the nation's paramount interest in choosing next BOJ governor. It was important for govt and Central bank to share strong will to reach 2% inflation target and for market to understand that. Japan economy must be on upswing to consider sales tax implementation
- Japan Vice Fin Min Yamaguchi stated that Fin Min Aso would not likely attend BOJ policy meetings
- China Central Bank (PBoC) Q4 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting reiterated its prudent monetary policy outlook and would use various policy tools to guide steady growth in credit and social financing/ It did see more positive factors in economy in Q4 and the current price situation was basically stable. The global economy remained weak and filled with uncertainty. It would also push ahead with exchange rate reform while holding Yuan rate basically steady
- Philippines Central Bank noted that challenges in global economy remained and domestic economy must address the fallout. Needed to tackle increased market volatility arising from US fiscal cliff negotiations and Euro Zone debt crisis
- Thailand Central Bank stated that its 2013 GDP was seen above 4.6% prior forecast due to lower external uncertainties. The euro-zone debt crisis would not worsen but the US fiscal cliff remained an area of concern. It would closely monitor movement of capital flows as Japan might undertake further monetary policy easing
- Japan Trade Min Motegi noted that it needed to rethink nuclear reactor lifetime limit and might let reactors operate for more than 40 years. There would be no restarts of nuclear power plants until after new safety standards for nuclear plants were established this summer. Economy would never be affected by possible energy supply constraints

Currencies:
- The market initially tried to remain optimistic on the US. fiscal cliff front amid reports that Obama would host a meeting with Reid, McConnell, Boehner and Pelosi in a bid to reach a compromise before the debt ceiling deadline. However, some concerns that the US sovereign rating would be downgraded provided a headwind and helped the USD and JPY reverse initial weakness. Dealers also noted that general book squaring in thin end of year liquidity played a role in the price action.
- The JPY currency reversed its earlier losses against the major pairs during the session. During Asia a plethora of Japanese data offered justification for more policy easing after industrial production and manufacturing weakness, while deflationary headwinds also remained. Comments from Fin Min Aso that Japan was not seeking a drastic decline in the JPY currency was one factor in aiding its reversal.
- The EUR/USD was off by over 60 pips ahead of the NY morning and trading around the 1.3175 area.

Political/ In the Papers:
- (DE) Germany's 2014 budget would be balanced if new borrowings are below 7B vs currently planned 13B - German Press; Suggests the government could propose savings measures equal to a single-digit billion euro amount for 2014. (Note: On yesterday's session, Germany's Fin Min Schaeuble said that there was no post election austerity planned)
- (GR) Greece Central Bank: 50B in aid was enough to recapitalize the banking sector in Greece; four largest banks required 27.5B in capital
- (ES) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says Spain's property market remains a downside risk for the country's economy; Questions the Spanish government's belief that the housing market has already hit a bottom.
- (US) House of Reps to resume legislative session at 18:30ET on Sunday, Dec 30 - GOP sources citing ongoing caucus conf call
- House Republicans informed that they may need to remain in session through to Thursday, January 3, the final day of the 112th Congress.
- House Speak Boehner also said to have indicated that the Feb/March timeframe, when the debt ceiling expires, is the true deadline for a fiscal deal.
- (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): It is looking like the US will go over the fiscal cliff and tax rates will go up starting Jan 1 unless Congress acts immediately
- (US) Congressional leaders to meet with Obama at White House on Friday

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Property Prices M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -8.1% prior
- 06:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Central Govt Budget (BRL): 2.1Be v 9.9B prior
- 06:30 (IN) Weekly India Forex Reserves
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor fixing
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Nov Unemployment Rate: 6.6%e v 6.6% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Nov Total Copper Production: No est v 476.2K prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.2%e v 6.6% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Nov Manufacturing Index: 2.7%e v 9.1% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Trade Balance (ZAR): -17.6Be v -21.2B prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Nov Primary Budget Balance (BRL): 5.5Be v 12.4B prior; Nominal Budget Balance: -6.0Be v -4.6B prior; Net Debt % GDP: 35.0%e v 35.2% prior
- 09:45 (US) Dec Chicago Purchasing Manager: 51.0e v 50.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Pending Home Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 5.2% prior; Y/Y: 12.2%e v 18.0% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.0%e v 10.2% prior; National Unemployment Rate: No est v 8.9% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $4.25-5.25B in Notes
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Oct Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 0.1% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Nov Construction Activity M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.9% prior
- 15:00 (US) Congressional leaders to meet with President Obama at White House
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Nov YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v -163.8B prior

 

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