Monday July 11, 2005 - 11:03:58 GMT
Share This Story
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/
Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition Key Points
• EUR-USD moves into corrective mode – could advance further ahead of Wednesday’s US trade data.
• CAD remains in the ascendancy ahead of this week’s key Canadian events.
• UK core PPI y/y rate eases back.
continues to rebound after failing to make new inroads on the downside following Friday’s US employment report and there is room for further stabilisation ahead of Wednesday’s US trade deficit number. Thursday morning’s spike high around 1.2038 is the initial barrier ahead of 1.2120. Cable will also have some scope to bounce back up to 1.7500- 40. However, all of the above would be purely corrective and further USD gains are favoured in the short-term, as long as this week’s US data doesn’t reveal any nasty surprises. The big winner last week was the CAD and this has continued this morning. It had been threatening for some time to break into a new trading range against the USD and Friday saw USDCAD
trading at its lowest level since early April. There is scope to 1.2000-50 in the short-term, although the tone of this week’s BoC comments (they meet tomorrow and release their latest Policy Report Update on Thursday) as well as Wednesday’s exports data will be critical in determining rate expectations and the CAD.
this morning was not that helpful for GBP. Trade data showed the overall trade deficit coming in above expectations and there was an upward revision to the previous month’s deficit. The government’s own measure of house prices, which is an amalgam of prior releases, showed a further trend weakening, while most significant of all perhaps in terms of MPC policy expectations, was the fall in the core PPI output y/y rate to +2.3%, the lowest number since last September. As an indication of core pipeline inflation pressure, this will be an important part of the MPC’s policy thinking. Furthermore, with input prices strong today the report also suggests more negative pressure on the profit margins of the manufacturing sector.
Data/event EDT Consensus*
CA Housing starts (Jun) 08.15 222.5k
JP Domestic CGPI (Jun) y/y 19.50 +1.6%
Latest data Actual Consensus*
AU Housing finance (May) m/m -0.4% +0.5%
DE WPI (Jun) y/y +2.2% +2.5%
FR Ind prod (May) m/m +0.3% +0.4%
FR Manu output (May) m/m +0.5% +0.3%
NO CPI (Jun) y/y +1.7% +1.8%
NO CPIX (Jun) y/y +1.1% +1.2%
GB PPI input (Jun) m/m +2.1% +1.7%
GB PPI output (Jun) m/m -0.2% +0.2%
GB PPI output core (Jun) y/y +2.3% +2.6%
GB Global trade balance (May) -£4.96bn -£4.8bn
GB Non-EU trade balance (May) -£2.43bn -£2.6bn
GB ODPM house prices (May) y/y +6.0% +5.7%
* Consensus unless stated
2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."