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Monday December 31, 2012 - 11:22:39 GMT
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Monday, December 31, 2012 5:32:22 AM EU Market Update: Cliffhanger

***Notes/Observations*** </
>- Fiscal cliff talks hits another snag on final trading day of 2012; Senate to reconvene at 11:00 ET
- Dairycliff averted
- China Dec Manufacturing PMI at fastest pace in 19 months
- Gold poised for a 12th annual gain despite biggest quarterly drop since 2004
- French top court overturns 75% upper tax rate

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Nov Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 9.6% v 8.4%e; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.3% v 5.1%e
- (FI) Finland Oct Final Trade Balance: -238M v -225M prelim
- (EU) ECB: 3.4B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 16.0B prior; 261.7B parked in deposit facility vs. 252.0B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Nov Govt Monthly Budget Balance (HKD): 24.8B v 21.5B prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Nov M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 10.9 v 10.0% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 11.0% v 10.0% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 15.3% v 13.1% prior
- (CZ) Czech Nov Money Supply Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.8% prior
- (UK) BoE Q3 Housing Equity Withdrawal Q/Q: -8.04B v -9.44B prior
- (GR) Greece Oct Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -18.2% v -11.8% prior; Retail Salea Value Y/Y: -17.1% v -10.4% prior

Fixed Income:
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF1.04B in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield -0.210% v -0.217% prior


***Equities*** </
>-Indices: FTSE 100 -0.40% at 5,900, DAX closed, CAC-40 +0.30% at 3,631, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 8,091, FTSE MIB closed, SMI closed, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,388

- European equity indices are mixed on today's shortened trading session, as markets in France, Spain and the UK are only open for half day sessions. Markets in
Germany, Switzerland and Italy are closed in observance of the New Year's holiday. Most banks are lower led by BBVA, Lloyds. Resource related firms are also declining, despite improving manufacturing data out of China. Overall, markets are expected to take their direction from the US budget talks, which are due to resume later today, after an agreement was not reached over the week.

- Currently S&P 500 Futures are higher by over 0.40%. In terms of the 2012 performance of European equity markets, the DAX ended the year up by approx. 29%, FTSE MIB +7.8% and the SMI rose by just under 15%. The FTSE 100 is on track to have a more than 5% gain for the year. The CAC-40 is on track to have an annual gain of over 14%, while the IBEX-35 has lost over 5%.

Speakers: </
>- ECB's Costa (Portugal) noted that the future of Europe to involve deepening of financial, budget, economic and political integration
- ECB's Asmussen (Germany) reiterated that the central bank should not exceed price stability mandate; Germany should not get used to lower interest rates
- Czech Central Bank Meeting Minutes noted that a majority of members agreed that the latest data implied no major deviation from forecasted CPI pressures. Overall risks to CPI forecasts were only slightly on the downside. Further policy easing as assumed by the forecast for 2013 could be achieved by influencing the exchange rate
- Poland Central Bank Chojna-Duch (dovish) reiterated that a deep rate cut would be justified and she might consider supporting 50bps rate cut in Jan. She saw only small chance of recession in 2013, as growth seen rebounding at end of 2013. Government's 2013 GDP growth forecast of 2.2% was seen as optimistic with growth for 2013 more near 1.5% (1-2% range)
- Poland Central Banker Winiecki commented that he saw little room for Polish rate cuts
And saw the PLN currency (Zloty) maintaining its strength in 2013
- Poland might request larger and more flexible credit line from the IMF between $4-6B. IMF's Lipton noted that renewing the two-year, $30B credit line that expires in Jan could play a critical role in preserving investor confidence, supporting macroeconomic policies and
providing a significant insurance against adverse external risks
- Poland PM Tusk saw its debate on Euro adoption in spring 2013
- Singapore PM Lee reiterated govt expected 2013 GDP between 1.0-3.0% range vs. 1.2% seen in 2012
- China might begin a third round of strategic oil stockpiling in 2013 - Oil & Gas Producers
- China Finance Ministry: Has been an increase of unauthorized funds by local governments; Reiterated existing restrictions on the use of leasing, trust, and build-and-transfer arrangements to pay for public works
- China President Hu: See stable economic development; China seeks to see long term prosperity in Hong Kong

- Trading was quite subdued ahead of the New Year holiday despite the lack of progress on US fiscal cliff negotiations but anxiety kept the USD and JPY on a steady footing. Majority of European centers were closed today. The EUR/USD stayed below the 1.32 handle while the USD/JPY pair hovered above the 86 level.
- China CNY currency (yuan) appreciated by 1.2% in 2012 vs. 4.7% rise in 2011

Political/ In the Papers: </
>Fiscal Cliff
- Democrats have balked at a last minute Republican demand to include the 'chained CPI' entitlement reform in any 'mini deal'
- Democrats view the current talks as focused pretty much exclusively on tax matters and wont consider spending issues (esp. anything related to entitlements) unless Republicans raise the debt ceiling
- Odds of a fiscal cliff deal does not look great but violating the Dec 31st date need nott be a disaster so long as some progress is apparent by Jan 7th
- Allowing the process to spill over into Jan helps remove a couple important obstacles
- 1) Republicans would no longer be accused of 'raising taxes'
- 2) House speaker Boehner would be re-elected as Speaker on Jan 3rd and thus in theory could be more comfortable agreeing to a deal that alienates blocks of his Republican caucus
- Boehner said to consider Feb and Mar period as the 'true deadline' as that is when the Treasury will start bumping up into the debt ceiling.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IS) Israel Q3 Preliminary
GDP Annualized: No est v 2.9% prior
- (IS) Israel Nov Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.0% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Industrial Production M/M: No est v 4.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.3% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Retail Sales M/M: No est v -4.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -6.9% prior
- 06:30 (IN) India Q3 Current Account Balance: -23.5Be v -$16.4B prior
- 06:30 (US) Libor Fixings
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Dec Inflation Expectations: 3.3%e v 3.6% prior
- 09:00 (US) Dec NAPM-Milwaukee: No est v 45.5 prior
- 09:00 (US) House Republican caucus meeting
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.223T prior
- 10:30 (US) Dec Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: No est v -2.8 prior
- 11:00 (US) Senate resumes talks on fiscal cliff
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month Bills
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 6-Month Bills
- 13:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel gives New Year's speech
- 19:01 (KR) South Korea Dec External Trade Balance: $3.3Be v $4.4B prior; Exports Y/Y: +0.8%e v 3.9% prior; Imports Y/Y: -2.2%e v +0.7% prior
- 20:00 (CN) China Dec Manufacturing PMI: 51.0e v 50.6 prior



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