Tuesday January 1, 2013 - 04:00:03 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 01-Jan-2013 -0356 GMT
WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR.
Dow Jones (13104.14, +1.28%) has risen on expectations that the deal would be reached on the Cliff. A deal to delay the Fiscal cliff by two months was reached after the markets had closed. The bigger picture looks bullish for a further rise to 13400-500.
Most of the markets remain closed today on account of New Year.
Shanghai (2269.13, +1.61%) rose strongly yesterday and has closed just above its 2260 resistance. It needs to be seen whether it can sustain above this Resistance when the market re-opens tomorrow after the New Year holiday today. A profit taking pull back to 2050-1950 cannot be ruled out.
Nikkei (10395, +0.70%) remains closed till Thursday on account of “New Year”.
Nifty (5905.10, -0.06%) had a flat sessions yesterday as it continues to trade in the 5950-850 range within its overall uptrend. With the Cliff being delayed by two months we can see some positive moves in our markets
Commodities are strong on the back of positive Cliff news. Oil can rise further, Gold looks positive, Silver is a bit mixed and Copper has risen strongly and can rise further to 3.70-80.
Nymex Crude (91.82, +1.12%) has risen as expected, breaking above its channel resistance on the daily charts. Is looking good for a further rise towards 94.00 and may be even higher.
Brent (111.27, UNCH) needs to break its111-12 resistance to rise further towards 122.00. Support is seen near 107-06 levels.
Gold (1675.80, 1.20%) has risen and can rise further towards 1710 in the coming days. Next leg of upmove seems to hev started in Gold. Longer term looking good.
Silver (30.34) remains flat and mixed above 30. It has to see a strong rise/close above 31 to bring in bullishness and rise further. Else the downside will remain open for a test of 29-28.
Copper(3.65) has risen well and looks strong for a rise to 3.70 and even 3.80.
US has reached a temporary deal for the fiscal cliff by delaying the spending cuts by two months. Almost all the markets are closed today and the actual market reaction for this temporary deal would kick in by tomorrow only. We will have to wait and see as how the market begins this new year.
As of now the overall view in the market remains the same. Dollar can strengthen in the near term, but the bigger picture remains in favour of the risky assets. The Dollar-Index (79.76) can rise to 80.20-30 after which a pull back is possible.
The Euro (1.3173) is retaining its 1.3150-3300 sideways range and our bias is bearish within this range to see a fall to 1.3100-3000 before a fresh rise to 1.3500-3600 happens. Dollar-Yen (86.72) and the Euro-Yen Cross (114.36) has important Resistance near current levels at 87.20 and 115 respectively and they can see a corrective fall to 84.50-84.00 and 111-110 respectively.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9144) remains ranged betwee 0.9080 and 0.9180 with a bullish bias for a rise to 0.9250-300. The Pound (1.6227) is bullish and is not breaking below 1.6100 strongly. It has risen back above 1.6200 and keeps the upside open for a test of 1.6500-6600. Aussie (1.0393) remains mixed/unclear and ranged between 1.0340 and 1.0400
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2204) remains mixed above 1.2200 and can rise to 1.2300 before a fresh fall to 1.2100-2000 is seen. Dollar-Rupee (55.00) has risen well yesterday and can extend its rise to 55.25 and even 55.50 in the coming days following the bad deficit figures released yesterday.
The US Treasury yield moved up yesterday on expectation that the US would reach a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. The US 10Yr yield has risen 6bps to 1.76%. As we have been mentioning for some time, we can expect the yield to be ranged between 1.60% and 1.90% for some time.
The Spanish 10Yr yield and the Spain-German yield spread remained flat at 5.27% and 3.95% respectively.
4:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN Trade bal
...Previous $ -19.29 Bln
4:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN PMI
...Actual $-48.3 Bln...Previous $ -42.5 Bln
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