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Wednesday January 2, 2013 - 11:02:37 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: European PMI Manufacturing data comes in mixed; UK factory activity moves back into growth territory; Rating agencies have yet to comment on their take of the fiscal EU Market Update: European PMI Manufacturing data comes in mixed; UK factory activity moves back into growth territory; Rating agencies have yet to comment on their take of the fiscal cliff compromise
Wed, 02 Jan 2013 5:49 AM EST

Fiscal Cliff highlights:
-US Congress Senate and House pass compromise bill to temporarily avoid fiscal cliff; Senate vote 89-8; House vote 257-167
-Compromise bill allows some tax rates to rise with threshold at $400K for individuals ($450K for couples); delays spending cuts for 2 months
- President Obama: Agreement is just one step; more work to be done to reduce deficits; open to compromise on budget; will not have another debate on debt ceiling
-House Speaker Boehner: Focus must return to spending control
-(US) On Dec 31st, the US Treasury confirmed that the debt ceiling was technically hit and reiterated that extraordinary measures would be taken to give the US more room to borrow
-US Congressional Budget Office (CBO): Compromise bill would add nearly $4T to deficit over 10 years
- No comments yet from any of the major rating agencies on the fiscal cliff compromise

Other notables:

- Rotation from safe haven seen in sentiment. Spanish 10-year gov't yield move below 5.17% for lowest level since March 2012
- China official manufacturing PMI 50.6 3rd consecutive month of expansion; matches seven month high in Nov); South Korea PMI above 50 for 1st time in 7 months.
- Singapore Q4 GDP came in on the firmer side at +1.8%
- Major Continental European Manufacturing PMI data comes in mixed but remain in contraction territory
- UK PMI Manufacturing: 51.4 v 49.1e; highest level since Sept 2011 and first growth in 9 months
- FTSE 100 Index moves above the 6,000 level, for first time since July 2011
- German 2-year Schatz auction yield is positive yield since October 2012

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Dec NCB Manufacturing PMI: 52.1 v 52.4 prior
- (TR) Turkey Dec Consumer Confidence: 97.3 v 89.2 prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Swedbank PMI Survey: 44.6 v 44.2e
- (FR) France Dec New Car Registrations -14.6%
- (PL) Poland Dec Manufacturing PMI: 48.5 v 48.0e
- (TR) Turkey Dec Manufacturing PMI: 53.1 v 51.6 (14 month high)
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Saxony M/M: +1.0% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.0% prior
- (ES) Spain Dec Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9%e; CPI EU harmonized Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec PMI: 48.9 v 52.1 prior
- (EU) ECB: 0.6B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 3.4B prior; 280.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 261.7B prior
- (ES) Spain Dec Manufacturing PMI: 44.6 45.0e (20th straight month of contraction)
- (CZ) Czech Republic Dec Manufacturing PMI: 46.0 v 48.0e
- (IT) Italy Dec PMI Manufacturing: 46.7 v 45.3e; (highest since March 2012 but 17th straight month of contraction)
- (FR) France Dec Final PMI Manufacturing: 44.6 v 44.6e; 3-month high but 10th straight month of contraction
- (DE) Germany Dec Final PMI Manufacturing:46.0 v 46.3e; 10th straight month of contraction
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Final PMI Manufacturing: 46.1 v 46.3e; 17th straight month of contraction

- (GR) Greece Dec Manufacturing PMI: 41.4 v 41.8 prior; 40th straight month of contraction
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Brandenburg M/M: +1.0% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.5% prior
- (UK) Dec PMI Manufacturing: 51.4 v 49.1e; highest level since Sept 2011 and first growth in 9 months
- (DK) Denmark Dec PMI Survey: 57.0 v 56.6 prior
- (NO) Norway Dec Housing Prices Y/Y: +8.8% v +7.5% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: +0.9% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: +1.0% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.5% prior
- (ES) Spain Dec New Car Registrations Y/Y: -23.0% v -20.3% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $980M in 7-Day USD Tender at 0.66% vs. $3.3B prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $863.2M in 3-Month USD Tender at 0.65% vs. $3.0B prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK10B in 3-month Bills; Yield: 0.9822% v 0.9446% prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 5.49% v 5.47% prior
- (DE) Germany sold 4.15B in 0.0% Dec 2014 Schatz; Avg Yield +0.01% (First positive yield since October 2012) v -0.01% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.5x v 1.9x prior


- Indices: FTSE 100 +1.7% at 6,001, DAX +1.9% at 7,760, CAC-40 +1.8% at 3,708, IBEX-35 +2.3% at 8,354, FTSE MIB +3% at 16,764, SMI closed, S&P 500 Futures (resume trade at 6:00 a.m. EST)

- European equity indices are broadly higher, as US government officials passed a temporary fix to the fiscal cliff issue. Today's gains have been led by the Italian FTSE MIB, while the German DAX index is trading at fresh multi-year highs. In London, the FTSE 100 has moved above 6,000 for the first time since mid 2011. European banks are broadly higher led by Barclays, Commezbank, Intesa, SocGen and UniCredit. Resource related firms have been supported by the rise in commodity prices. In European macro news, most of the euro zone PMI manufacturing figures were weaker than expected, with the exception of Italy. In terms of the sub-indices for the euro zone PMI data, Germany's new orders index hit a 4-month low, while Spain's new orders index had the slowest decline since mid-2011. Overall, the euro zone data showed that the manufacturing sector continues to contract. UK PMI manufacturing data was better than market expectations, as the data showed expansion for the first time in 9 months.

- UK movers [Lamprell +15% (debt waiver agreement)
- Germany movers [Thyssenkrupp (sector M&A activity), Daimler +2.2% (CEO comments related to dividend)]
- Spain movers [Bankia -9% (lags European banks)]
- Dutch movers [ArcelorMittal +3.3% (sold stake in Canadian mining unit for $1.1B)]
- Denmark movers [Vestas Wind +9% (extension of US tax credit)]

- Italy PM Monti
commented that any new coalition needed to complete reforms. He added that he was not seeking the Italian presidency. He reiterated that his policies along with ECB action helped reduce bond spreads
- Greece Finance Ministry: End-Nov State arrears at 9.4B, unchanged from Oct levels
- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco noted that the US agreement on fiscal cliff might spawn risk appetite in the short run as it removed one unknown in global outlook which could result in fund flows into emerging markets and higher volatility in financial markets. Philippines would remain vigilant and act quickly to avert destabilizing sharp movements in market. He added that markets would eventually look for more lasting solution to the US debt problem
- Bank of Korea (BOK) Minutes noted that the vote was unanimous to keep rate steady at 2.75% in Dec. One Board member believed consumer inflation might start to accelerate in Q2; overall inflation pressures remain contain. Another Board member note that KRW currency (won) might further appreciate driven by extended current account surplus and foreign investor demand for local assets
- India Central Bank (RBI) said to likely appoint Urjit Patel as Dep Gov

- Risk appetite found additional traction after US politicians reached a compromise deal to avoid going over the fiscal cliff and this provided a backdrop for further weakness in both USD and JPY currencies against the European and commodity-related pairs. Although the US debt ceiling issue needed to be resolved in the coming months the current sentiment was one of cautious optimism that the worst of the crisis was behind. Price action saw a rotation out of safe havens and the European bond spreads reflected this. Yields were higher for core and semi-core countries and lower in the periphery. Spanish 10-year gov't yield moved below 5.17% for lowest level since March 2012
-The session saw a plethora of manufacturing PMI releases which were mixed in their readings but remaining in contraction territory with the exception of the UK data.
- Just ahead of the NY morning there had been no comments yet from any of the major rating agencies on the fiscal cliff compromise. All three rating agencies currently have the US sovereign outlook at negative. Both Fitch and Moody's have the US at AAA; S&P has the US rating at AA+ (was cut back in Aug 2011). The direction of US bond ratings most likely to be determined by the outcome of budget negotiations
- The EUR/USD was higher by over 50 pips from its Far East opening level while USD/JPY continued its ascent and was over the 87 handle throughout the session.

Political/ In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras New Year's address: Govt needs to maintain social cohesion in 2013 in order to grow; 2013 will be another tough year for Greeks but that the signs of recovery would become visible.
- (ES) Spain Fin Min de Guindos: 2013 likely to be better than 2012; Expects to see positive employment growth by Q4 of 2013 - financial press
- (ES) Spain minimum wage to increase to 645.30/month in 2013, +0.6% y/y - financial press
- (UK) Most UK economists polled by the Telegraph expect GDP growth in 2013 to miss the official 1.2% target - London Telegraph

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CZ) Czech Dec Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -77.9B prior
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Dec CPI Bavaria M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Industrial Production M/M: No est v 4.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.3% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Retail Sales M/M: No est v -4.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -6.9% prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Q3 Current Account: -2.5Be v -2.2B prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Dec Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7%e v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.9% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 08:58 (US) Dec Markit PMI Manufacturing: 53.6e v 52.8 prior
- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell between 5.8-7.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 6-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 10:00 (US) Nov Construction Spending M/M: 0.6%e v 1.4% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec ISM Manufacturing: 50.4e v 49.5 prior; Prices Paid: 50.8e v 52.5 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Dec New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -20.1% prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Dec Budget Balance: No est v -4.3B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -62.9B prior
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Trade Balance: $1.6Be v -$186M prior; Exports: $20.0Be v $20.5B prior; Imports: $18.8Be v $20.7B prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Dec IMEF Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.8 prior; Non-Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.8 prior
- 14:00 (US) Minutes of FOMC Meeting
- 14:00 (US) Fed Releases Minutes from Dec. 11 FOMC Meeting
- 20:00 (CH) China Dec Final Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.6 prelim


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