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Wednesday January 2, 2013 - 16:31:20 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Cliff Rally US Market Update: Cliff Rally
Wed, 02 Jan 2013 11:15 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Bavaria M/M: +0.9 v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1% prior
- (PT) Portugal Nov Industrial Production M/M: -3.3% v 5.5% prior; Y/Y: -4.3% v -3.6% prior
- (PT) Portugal Nov Retail Sales M/M: -1.3% v -4.0% prior; Y/Y: -5.3% v -6.5% prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec Manufacturing PMI: 51.1 v 52.2 prior
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Dec 30th w/w: +0.6%; y/y: +2.7%
- (PL) Poland Q3 Current Account: -3.4B v -2.5Be
- (DE) Germany Dec Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.9% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9%e
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.0% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Dec 30th: +2.9% y/y prior; Dec MTD: 0.1% m/m prior; Dec MTD: 2.5% y/y
- (US) Dec Markit PMI Manufacturing: 54.0 v 53.6e
- (EU) ECB weekly Forex Reserves w/e Dec 30th 226.4B v 226.1B prior
- (US) Nov Construction Spending M/M: -0.3% v +0.6%e
- (US) Dec ISM Manufacturing: 50.4e; Prices Paid: 50.7 v 50.8e

- Global equity markets are surging in the first session of 2013 thanks to (or despite) Congress's passage of a deeply flawed solution to the fiscal cliff. The DJIA and S&P500 are both up 2% and the Nasdaq is up 2.5%. The Russell 2000 pushed out to new all-time highs above 870 before declining a bit. The Dow Jones transports broke above 2012 highs to levels not seen since 2011. The leading European indices are only a bit below their session highs.

- While the tax component of the fiscal cliff has been resolved, the spending component still requires work. The compromise bill delayed the so-called "sequester" for two months while Congress works on a plan replace them. This means that Congress will be reckoning with the debt ceiling at the same time it decides on new spending cuts. President Obama has said Congress must raise the debt ceiling without concessions or debate, while the GOP have repeatedly threatened to extract more cuts in any debt ceiling vote.

- There has been plenty of chatter this morning that either Fitch or Moody's will cut the US sovereign rating imminently. Note that all three agencies currently have the US sovereign outlook at negative; both Fitch and Moody's has the US rating at AAA; S&P has the US rating at AA+ (after cutting it from AAA back in Aug 2011). In late December, Fitch warned that if negotiations on the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling extended too far into 2013, the US sovereign rating could be subject to review. Moody's warned that the US needs to maintain a downward trend in the debt/GDP ratio, and if negotiations failed to produce a plan sustaining this trend there could be a ratings downgrade.

- In the Asia session, EUR/USD nearly topped the 1.33 level last seen in April of 2012. The pair has gapped lower through the US open, to drop to 1.3226 as of writing. With risk on, there has been a big rotation out of safe havens, which is seen in lower peripheral yields and slightly higher bund yields.

- The most impactful equity story of the morning has been Avis's deal to acquire car sharing firm Zipcar, for $12.25 per share (a 49% premium the prior close). Note that Avis has been relegated to number three position after Hertz beat Avis and finally bagged Dollar Thrifty in August. Zipcar, founded more than 10 years ago, pioneered car-sharing services in the United States. Shares of CAR are up more than 5%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Dec New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -20.1% prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Dec Budget Balance: No est v -4.3B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -62.9B prior
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Trade Balance: $1.6Be v -$186M prior; Exports: $20.0Be v $20.5B prior; Imports: $18.8Be v $20.7B prior
- 13:00 (MX) Mexico Dec IMEF Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.8 prior; Non-Manufacturing PMI: No est v 53.8 prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 20:00 (CH) China Dec Final Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 55.6 prelim




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