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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Investors show concern that US bond purchase program might come earlier than expected with 2013 possibly being the 'year of the unravel'; USD firmer with commodities

Friday, January 04, 2013 5:41:02 AM

 TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Investors show concern that US bond purchase program might come earlier than expected with 2013 possibly being the 'year of the unravel'; USD firmer with commodities broadly lower

***Notes/Observations*** </
>- FOMC: Officials increasingly worried about risks of asset purchases on financial markets as additional purchases complicated any exit plans
- WSJ Hilsenrath: Minutes show several members want to end QE by the end of the year; a new fault-line has opened up at the Fed
- Dealers noting that 2013 could be the year of the unravel. Long term interest rates being the key. Session saw continued strength in USD and weakness in commodities (gold, silver, crude)
- US Tsy Sec Geithner departure indicated for around Jan 21st; budget negotiations seen in a difficult spot. Jack Lew expected to be named as replacement
- Spain tapping social security funds to buy govt bonds with 90% said to be invest now in Govt bonds; Bailout coming
- Central Spain govt sees risk of 7 autonomous regions missing deficit targets
- Germany said to be planning extra 5B-6B spending cuts to meet budget targets in 2014
- The yen is on track to record eight consecutive weeks of losses against the US dollar, which is something it has not achieved since 1989

***Economic Data*** </
>- (DE) Germany Nov Retail Sales M/M: 1.2% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.6%e
- (IE) Ireland Dec NCB Services PMI: 55.8 v 56.1 prior (5th straight month of expansion)
- (BR) Brazil Dec FIPE CPI Monthly: 0.8% v 0.7%e
- (SE) Sweden Dec PMI Services: 49.1 v 47.2e
- (HU) Hungary Nov Unemployment Rate: 10.6% v 10.6%e
- (DK) Denmark Nov Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.9%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.3% v 6.4%e prior
- (EU) ECB: 130M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 120M prior; 250.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 275.9B prior
- (ES) Spain Dec Services PMI: 44.3 v 42.6e (18th straight month of contraction)
- (TW) Taiwan Dec Foreign Exchange Reserves: $403.2B v $401.0B prior
- (IT) Italy Dec PMI Services: 45.6 v 45.0e (19th straight month of contraction); New Business Index: 40.6 v 42.8 prior (lowest since July 2012 </
>- (FR) France Dec Final PMI Services: 45.2 v 46.0e (5th straight month of contraction)
- (DE) Germany Dec Final PMI Services: 52.0 v 52.1e (first growth since April 2012)
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Final PMI Services: 47.8 v 47.8e; PMI Composite: 47.2 v 47.3e
- (IC) Iceland Nov Final Trade Balance (ISK): 10.7B v 12.3B prelim
- (UK) Dec PMI Services: 48.9 v 50.2e (lowest since April 2009)
- (UK) Nov Net Consumer Credit: 0.1B v 0.0Be; Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings: -0.2B v +0.5Be </
>- (UK) Nov Mortgage Approvals: 54.0K v 54.0Ke (highest level since Jan 2012)
- (UK) Nov M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.2% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: -2.8% v -3.2% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 4.3% v 5.4% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec CPI Estimate Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.4%e

Fixed Income:
- None schedule

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities*** </
>-Indices: FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,041, DAX -0.30% at 7,736, CAC-40 -0.60% at 3,700, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 8,410, FTSE MIB -0.60% at 16,805, SMI -0.10% at 7,014, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,454

- Following Thursday's mixed trading session, European equity markets are mostly lower amid concerns that the US Fed could tighten policy sooner than some expect. Traders are also eyeing the 8-month highs seen for 10-year Treasury and Gilt yields. European banks are mixed, while resources related shares are lower (tracking decline in commodity prices). The focus of today's session is expected to be the release of the US monthly payrolls report, as investors seek more clarity on the Fed's policy outlook. Also, various Fed speakers are due to comment later today, following Thursday's release of the FOMC's most recent minutes. In terms of the euro zone PMI services figures, most of the data showed improvements on a m/m basis, with the exception of the French data. Italian services PMI exceeded market estimates and this followed the release of better than expected manufacturing PMI. Also, German services PMI hit the highest level since April. In the UK, services PMI data disappointed and added to concerns that the UK economy could contract in Q4. The services sector makes up about 75% of the UK's economic output.

- Germany movers [Merck KgaA -1.4% (broker commentary), German automakers are mostly lower following the release of US monthly auto sales; Solarworld +9% (speculation that the EU will impose duties on Chinese solar panels), Sky Deutschland +1.5% (entertainment partnership with Deutsche Telekom)]
- UK movers [Fresnillo -5.5% (decline in Silver prices)]
- Switzerland movers [Transocean +2.5% (agreed to settlement with US DoJ), Sonova +2% (broker commentary), Straumann +1.5% (new CEO)]
- Italy movers [Banca Monte Paschi +6.5% (outperforms Italian banking sector),Fiat +1.4% (requested to raise stake in Chrysler); Finmeccanica -1% (unit sale may be delayed)]
- Belgium movers [Thrombogenics +5% (confirmed launch date for JETREA)]

Speakers: </
>- Egan Jones founder Sean Egan: Does not believe the US should encounter another sovereign downgrade at this time (**Note: Egan Jones has cut the US rating several times already)
- Chancellor Merkel's CDU party: SPD inheritance and wealth tax plans are a threat to business- draft statement
- Czech Central Bank Vice Gov Tomsik noted that forex intervention was the best way to ease policy further. He added that suggestions that central banks should adopt higher inflation targets or switch to targeting nominal gross domestic product could prove too costly. Exchange rate pressures would not threaten financial stability as domestic banks and households are financial locally </
>- German CDU Deputy Chief Meister: If Germany wants to reach a balance budget it must cut an additional 5.0-6.0B in spending in 2014
- Greece Senior Finance Official: 2012 primary budget deficit could equal 1.3% of GDP v target of 1.5%
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga commented that recent moves in stock and Fx markets were very welcomed. He added that it was important to have BOJ gov who understood PM Abe's goals to end deflation and reverse the Yen strength
- Brazil Govt makes one-off cash transfer of BRL16B from Caixa, BNDES Development Bank and sovereign wealth fund to meet fiscal targets

Currencies:
- The USD maintained strength heading into today's non-farm payroll release with the greenback at 3-week highs against the EUR, CHF and GBP pairs. The release of the FOMC minutes on Thursday appeared to be more hawkish sounding than the market had expected and prompted concerns from investors that the bond purchase program might come earlier than expected. US Treasury yields along with yields in other G7 countries moved higher. The 10-year Gilt yield rose to an 8-month high above 2.10% was above briefly above the Oat counterpart for the first time since April 2011. The German Bund 10-year yield was back above the 1.50% level. Gilts did find some relief following a weak reading from the UK Services PMI.
- The EUR/USD made several attempts to break below the 1.3000 handle but the level proved hard to breach for the time being. Euro sell stops said to be building below 1.2970 area.
- The JPY currency continued to weaken. The yen was on track to record eight consecutive weeks of losses against the USD, which is something it has not achieved since 1989
- The stronger USD was weighing upon various commodities with oil and precious metals broadly lower. Spot Gold at 18-week low of $1,635/oz. Both WTI and Brent crude were lower by 1% in trade ahead of the NY morning.

Political/ In the Papers:
- (EU) According to IMF data, emerging countries lowered exposure to EMU bonds; central banks raise exposure to sterling in Q3 - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
- (EU) IMF's Chief Economist Blanchard: Cuts in budgets in the EMU have had a larger than expected negative impact on GDP
- (FR) France Fin Min Moscovici: There will be a fresh source of financing behind President Hollande's pledge to craft new investment strategy to support France's economy - French press
- France will benefit from 7.0B in financing from the European Investment Bank over three years (double the previous amount).
- (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble: Confident details on Basel III can be completed in course of 2013 in Europe
- (CY) Cyprus Petrol stations to strike nationwide today to protest lack of regulation in the market- Cyprus Mail
- (ES) Central Spain govt sees risk of 7 autonomous regions missing deficit targets- Spanish press; Hacienda Andalucia, Murcia, Valencia, Extremadura, the Balearic Islands and Castilla-La Mancha seen as the regions
-(UK) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard suggests that the UK and Switzerland are engaging in a currency war

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Dec 31st (RUB): No est v 7.53T prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.9%e v +0.9% prior; Y/Y: -0.8%e v +2.3% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -1.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 14.6% prior; Live Register Level: no est v 432.3 prior
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Dec PMI Services: No est v 52.5 prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +150Ke v +146K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +153Ke v 147K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +4.0Ke v -7K prior </
>- 08:30 (US) Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.7%e v 7.7% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 14.4% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v -122K prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.7% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.4e v 34.4 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.2%e v -0.1% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -1.0%e v 0.0% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Net Change in Employment: 0.0Ke v +59.3K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.3%e v 7.2% prior; Full Time Employment Change: no est v +5.2K prior; Part-Time Employment Change: No est v +4.1K prior; Participation rate: 66.8%e v 66.8% prior
- 09:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel New Year's reception of CDU
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Cumming (non-voter)
- 10:00 (US) Nov Factory Orders : 0.4%e v 0.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Durable Goods Revisions
- 10:00 (US) Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing: 54.0e v 54.7 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:00 (DE) German SPD member Steinbrueck hosts State election rally
- 13:15 (US) Feds Plosser on real business cycle in San Diego
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Lacker (voter)
- 15:30 (US) Fed's Yellen on systemic risk in San Diego
- 17: 30 (US) Fed's Bullard in San Diego


- Source TradeTheNews.com

 

 

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