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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Trades Ignore Tepid Jobs Report, Embrace Strong ISM Services Data
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Trades Ignore Tepid Jobs Report, Embrace Strong ISM Services Data
Fri, 04 Jan 2013 11:00 AM EST
***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -0.8%e v +2.3% prior
- (IE) Ireland Dec Live Register Monthly Change: -1.4K v -1.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: 14.6% v 14.6% prior; Live Register Level: 430.9 v 432.3 prior
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Dec 28th: $296.6B v $296.5B prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec PMI Services: 53.5 v 52.5 prior
- (US) Dec Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +155K v +152Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +168K v +155Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +25K v +4Ke
- (US) Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 7.7%e; Underemployment Rate: 14.4% v 14.4% prior; Change in Household Employment:+28 K v -51K prior
- (US) Dec Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.7%e; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.5 v 34.4e
- (CA) Canada Nov Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -1.9% v -1.0%e
- (CA) Canada Dec Net Change in Employment: +39.8K v 5.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.3%e; Full Time Employment Change: +41.2K v +5.2K prior; Part-Time Employment Change: -1.4K v +4.1K prior; Participation rate: 66.8% v 66.8%e
- (US) Nov Factory Orders : 0.0% v 0.4%e
- (US) Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing: 56.1 v 54.0e
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -135 bcf v -130 to -135 bcf expected range
- The focus is squarely on US economic data this morning, although the investors have more or less ignored the rather flat December jobs report and taken heart from the very good ISM services numbers. As of writing, the S&P500 is up 0.12%, the DJIA is flat and the Nasdaq is down 0.18%. Notably the VIX continues to fall, with the measure down 38% after spiking at the end of last week, marking the biggest decline over four sessions in its 20-year history. The VIX is hovering just above 14 - note that it has finished below this level just four times the past five years. The greenback moved off three-week highs against the major European pairs to session lows around 1.3043 by mid- morning.
- Non-farm payrolls grew by 155K in December, right in line with expectations and slightly below the 161K pace seen in November. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.8%. These gains are not even close to level that might push US employment toward the QE exit thresholds outlined by the Fed. Note that commentators have pointed out that better jobs data may drive risk-off trades as investors bet that an improving labor market draws the Fed policy exit closer.
- The real catalyst for the mid morning gains has been the excellent December ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, which expanded further from the good growth seen in November and also topped expectations. The index is now at its highest level since last February. The new orders and employment subcomponents were very good, and ISM officials said they were seeing positive sentiment from respondents about business conditions.
- Yesterday's FOMC minutes has reverberated throughout asset classes as analysts rush to deconstruct the Fed's seeming embrace of easing skepticism just weeks after the launch of QE3. Spot gold tumbled from yesterday morning through 06:30ET this morning, with strong downside seen after the release of the minutes yesterday afternoon. The contract bounced off its lows around $1,626 ahead of the jobs report and traded as high as $1,651 this morning. The benchmark 10-year yield closed pit trading around 1.90%, at its highest level since early May. The US curve has seen some substantial steepening with the 2-year/10-year spread widening out from 1.64% to 1.68% just this morning.
***Looking Ahead***
- 12:00 (DE) German SPD member Steinbrueck hosts State election rally
- 12:00 (IT) Italy PM Monti press conference
- 13:15 (US) Feds Plosser on real business cycle in San Diego
- 13:30 (US) Fed's Lacker (voter)
- 15:30 (US) Fed's Yellen on systemic risk in San Diego
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Producer Price Index M/M: No est v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.1% prior
- 17: 30 (US) Fed's Bullard in San Diego
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