Sunday January 6, 2013 - 22:18:50 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Morning Report
Morning Report Monday 7 January 2013
US employment data helped markets end the week on a risk-seeking footing. Including revisions, non-farm payrolls grew by more than expected, pushing the S&P500 up 0.5% to a three-month high. Hawkish Fedspeak from Lacker and Bullard late in the NY session had little effect. Commodities were less enthused, appearing to suffer from the previous day’s Fed warning that asset purchases could be halted as early as this year. The CRB index closed down 0.5%, Brent oil -0.7%, copper -0.6%, and gold -0.5%. US 10yr treasury yields initially rose to a nine-month high of 1.97% but then slumped to close at 1.90%. Peripheral Eurozone bond yields eked narrow ranges around nine-month lows.
The US dollar index (DXY) fell following the US employment data but managed to close slightly up on the day. EUR rose from 1.2998 (a six-week low) to 1.3090. Safe-haven yen underperformed, USD/JPY making a 16-month high of 88.41. AUD initially probed lower to 1.0395 but rose to 1.0488 in the US payrolls aftermath. NZD outperformed, bouncing from 0.8214 to 0.8324. AUD/NZD fell from 1.2680 to 1.2590.
US non-farm payrolls rose 155k in Dec, with back revisions adding 14k earlier in Q4. The mid year jobs slowdown that characterised 2010, 2011 and 2012 has once again been followed by a late year surge in hiring, even if Q4 momentum has eased a bit relative to Q3. Dec saw decent hours worked growth of 0.4% which combined with hourly earnings growth of 0.3% should be supportive of incomes growth in late 2012. Factory and building jobs posted solid 30k and 25k gains in Dec but retail jobs fell 11k after rising 162k in the previous four months; we see further downside risk from this sector in coming months. IT and temp jobs also recorded Dec declines, and government shed 13k jobs to be down 89k in Q4. The separate household survey found just 28k jobs after falling 51k in Nov but these outcomes followed a 1164k increase in Sep-Oct. Even so, the jobless rate rose by almost 0.1 ppt from 7.753% to 7.849% but after rounding was steady at 7.8%.
US ISM non-manufacturing index rose from 54.7 to 56.1 in Dec, its highest since Feb and above the highest market forecast. The component detail showed business activity still strong at 60.3 (from 61.2), orders up 1.2 pts 59.3 and jobs surging 6 pts to 56.3, their highest since March. As with payrolls, the tendency to accelerate around the turn of the year has been apparent in this survey in each of 2010, 2011 and now 2012.
US factory goods orders flat in Nov, as the 0.7% rise in durables (revised from 0.8%) was offset by a 0.6% fall in non-durables. Factory stocks were flat for the second month running in Nov.
Euroland PMI composite was revised slightly lower in Dec from 47.3 to 47.2, mainly due to a lower reading for the French services sector. On a quarterly basis the composite has averaged around 46.3 in Q2, Q3 and Q4, consistent with ongoing mild recession, though Q4’s decline may be steeper than Q3. Separately the Euroland CPI flash estimate came in at 2.2% yr in Dec, unchanged from Nov, and the equal lowest since 2010, and German retail sales volumes rose 1.2% in Nov after falling 1.3% in Oct. Heavy revisions saw the annual pace of decline of German retail resume at –0.9% yr after a temporary growth blip in Oct.
UK services PMI dipped from 50.2 to 48.9 in Dec, its lowest since the closing quarters of the 2009 recession. The factory PMI earlier this weak rose from 49.2 to 51.4 but services make up a much larger share of the economy, so this suggests economic slowdown at the end of the year (consistent with the mild contraction in Q4 GDP growth we expect to be reported later this month).
NZD and AUD outlook: The local calendars are empty today, Eurozone PPI tonight featuring on the global calendar.
NZD/USD 1 day: A brief correction to 0.8270 today.
NZD/USD 1 month: The positive trend has resumed, targeting 0.8470 and beyond.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening today 2bp higher at 2.80%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 month: Breaking above 2.80% towards 3.00%, supported by improving NZ data.
AUD/USD 1 day: A brief correction to 1.0450 today.
AUD/USD 1 month: Remains inside a 17-month triangle, above 1.0600 confirming an upward breakout.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 7 January 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts
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