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Monday January 7, 2013 - 11:14:12 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: banking shares rise after sector wins more flexible Basel rules with full enforcement moved back to 2019 from 2015 EU Market Update: banking shares rise after sector wins more flexible Basel rules with full enforcement moved back to 2019 from 2015
Mon, 07 Jan 2013 5:51 AM EST

- International banking sector wins more flexible Basel rules with full enforcement moved back to 2019 from 2015
- Silvio Berlusconi reaches Italian election deal with Northern League; throws next month's general election wide open
- Italy PM Monti will seek to be PM in next Govt, unlikely to accept a Fin Min position
- IMF will not make any major revisions to next IMF world economic outlook in January
- Syria President Assad: Govt still has not found a partner for talks in finding solution to the standoff
- Fed members comments post FOMC minutes
- Fed's Plosser: Unclear what the Fed will do when inflation reaches 2.5% and unemployment at 6.5%; there is a fear people may become too focused on the thresholds
- Fed's Bullard: warns of the creeping politicization of central bank monetary policy

***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Nov Preliminary Trade Balance: +210M v -238M prior
- (TW) Taiwan Dec Total Trade Balance: $4.1B v $2.9Be; Total Exports Y/Y: 9.0% v 4.5%e; Total Imports Y/Y: 1.6% v 3.0%e
- (UK) Dec Halifax House Prices M/M: 1.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.6%e

- (HU) Hungary Nov Producer Prices M/M: -0.7% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -2.9%e v +0.2% prior
- (CZ) Czech Nov Industrial Output Y/Y: -3.9% v -1.3%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -2.7% v -4.3% prior
- (CZ) Czech Nov Trade Balance (CZK): 35.5B v 24.0Be
- (CH) Swiss Dec Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 427.2B v 423.0Be
- (EU) ECB: 127M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 130M prior; 252.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 250.5B prior
- (SE) Sweden Nov Service Production M/M: 1.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: +0.5% v -1.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Foreign Currency Reserves: $317.3B v $305.2B prior
- (AT) Austria Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.7 v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.7 v 2.8% prior
- (UK) Dec New Car Registrations Y/Y: 5.3% v 11.3% prior
- (NO) Norway Oct AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.2% v 3.0%e
- (SG) Singapore Dec Foreign Reserves: $259.3B v $255.8B prior
- (CZ) Czech Dec International Reserves: $44.8B v $44.2B prior
- (IC) Iceland Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: 5.0B v 10.7B prior
- (IS) Israel Dec Foreign Currency Balance: $75.9B v $75.7B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Sentix Investor Confidence: -7.0 v -14.2e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.4%e

- (BR) Brazil Dec FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 0.7% v 0.7%e

Fixed Income:
- (NO) Norway sold NOK4.0B vs. NOK4.0B indicated in 12-month Bills; Yield 1.64%
- (PL) Poland sold PLN3B vs. PLN2.0-3.0B indicated range in 4-month Bills; Yield 3.56%
- (DE) Germany sold 3.515B in 6-month BuBills; Avg Yield -0.0091% v -0.0168% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.11x v 2.5x prior
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 3.9B vs. 3.0-5.0B indicated range in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold 2.83B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.014% v -0.041% prior
- Sold 1.07B vs. 1.0-2.0B indicated in 12-month Bills; Yield +0.003% v 0.050% prior


-Indices: FTSE 100 -0.30% at 6,072, DAX -0.50% at 7,740, CAC-40 -0.60% at 3,707, IBEX-35 +0.20% at 8,448, FTSE MIB flat at 16,962, SMI flat at 7,059, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,456
- European equity markets are currently mixed ahead of events this week which include Fed commentary, US earnings, peripheral government bond issuance, Chinese data and rate decisions out of the ECB and BoE. European banks are mostly higher as officials agreed to ease the Base III global liquidity rules. However, Spanish banks have lagged led by Bankia (-11%). Resources related firms are mostly lower, tracking the declines in copper and oil prices.
- European banks broadly higher as Basel regulators ease rules related to liquidity ratios. Outperformers include Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, Intesa and Unicredit.

- Germany movers [Infineon -3% (broker downgrade), RWE -1.5% (broker downgrade), Merck KgaA -1.2% (broker downgrade), Volkswagen -1% (preferred shares downgrade), E.ON -1% (broker downgrade), Air Berlin -0.50% (new CEO); German solar and windpower firms rise amid speculation related to the government's clean energy proposals, Epigenomics +6% (completed regulatory submissions related to proColontest)Daimler +1% (speculation Chinese investors could be interested in stake)]
- UK movers [Rolls Royce -1.8% (concerns related to bribery probe in China), Shell and BP lower by ~1% (lower oil prices); Vernalis +4% (milestone payment), EasyJet +1.5% (Dec traffic, lower oil prices),Bumi Plc +2% (trading update),Barclays +3% (easing of Base III liquidity guidelines)]
- France movers [Banks broadly higher on eased Basel III liquidity rules, Peugeot +6%, Faurecia +7% (speculation that Peugeot may lower stake)]
- Italy movers [Banca Monte Paschi +10% (CEO comments, possible short covering)]
- Switzerland movers [Addex +6% (data presentation), Roche +0.50% (no longer seeking to bid for Illumina)]
- Dutch movers [Wereldhave +3% (sold US property assets), Imtech +1.5 % (confirmed 2012 forecast)]

- Italy's Berlusconi said to have reached new alliance with Northern League

- SNB's Zubruegg expressed concern about the Swiss housing market and noted that raising interest rates was unthinkable. He noted that it was a very special situation with 0% interest rates. Constantly reviewing mortgage market, concerned about property market.
- ECB's Nowotny likely to be re-appointed as Austria Central bank chief, but may not serve a full term
- Israel Central Bank Minutes showed that the Dec vote was 5 to 1 to cut Base Rate by 25bps to 1.75%
- Japan Business Lobby chief Yonekura: Current level of 88 in pair is acceptable
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Recent moves in stock and Fx markets are very welcome
- Japan Vice Finance Min Obuchi confirmed that the MoF was mulling renewing inflation-linked bond sales but added the timing was uncertain. Govt needed to sell deficit-financing bonds to pay for extra budget
- Japan to sell more than 5.0T in new bonds to fund economic stimulus which would bring the total bond issuance in FY12/13 to over 50T, +10% y/y
- India said to have imposed 20% import tax on some Chinese hotrolled flat steel

- FX price action during the European morning was lackluster. The focus to look ahead to the ECB and BOE rate decisions on Thursday as well as peripheral bond auctions as they begin their 2013 funding programs.
- Euro was a touch weaker in the session but still above the 3-week lows registered on Friday. Dealers noted that the accord former Italy PM Berlusconi reached with the Northern League could throw next month's general election wide open as move that may seriously undermine his centre-left rivals. Peripheral yields edged up slightly with Italy and Spain 10-year yields higher by 3bps to 4.28% and 5.50% respectively
- Japan policy makers reiterated the push towards more aggressive policy stimulus, but this looks as if it was fully priced in now, with Japan's Nikkei dropping and JPY backing up from recent losses. The USD/JPY was back towards Friday lows. The pair was around 87.80 ahead of the NY morning.

Political/ In the Papers:
- Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have eased first global liquidity rules, widening definition of the easy-to-sell assets that banks will have to hold to survive a 30-day liquidity crisis
- (EU) ECB continues to have issues with collateral management - German press; The Bank of France has allowed too much credit compared with collateral to six banks due to inadequate haircuts on the collateral; the Bank provided credit in exchange for Short-Term European Paper (STEP) which it accepted as collateral from the banks; According to an ECB spokesperson said there was no impact on the monetary policy operations and added no further comments.
- (FR) France govt does not plan to raise taxes for next few years - French press
- (FR) France Budget Minister Cahuzac: To reallocate 2B from its 2013 budget to state-aided job creation to help reduce unemployment
- Daimler [DAI.DE]: China Sovereign Wealth Fund (CIC) may take a stake of 4-10% in Daimler
- (IT) PIMCO Gross: Continue to buy European debt, Italy bonds look good at 3.5%
- (ES) Spain banks to have one year to comply with rule requiring each bank to a single partner for the sale of insurance- Cinco Dias
- (UK) Bond markets may have already priced in a UK sovereign downgrade - US financial press
- (UK) PM Cameron: Wants to continue serving as PM until at least 2020 to help oversee UK's renegotiated relationship with Europe - financial press
- (US) Goldman Chief economist Hatzius: Employment report was a little weaker than we thought but nothing disturbing - CNBC interview
- (US) Senate Minority Leader McConnell (R-KY): Republicans are "done raising taxes"
- (US) Pres Obama: Republicans playing a "dangerous game" on the debt ceiling
- (US) Former deficit commission Co-Chair Bowles: Using the debt ceiling is the wrong place to draw a line in the sand on deficits - CNBC
- (US) The US dollar may become a less attractive funding currency - FT
-(CN) (CN) China may set 2013 GDP target at 8% vs 7.5% for 2012 - Chinese press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RO) Romania Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 5.25%
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v 1.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -1.9% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -3.9% prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2017 and 2022 bonds
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell T-Bills
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov Economic Activity Index M/M: +0.4%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 5.2%e v 6.7% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Dec Trade Balance: $200.0Me v $562.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $6.7B prior; Total Imports: No est v $6.1B prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Dec Copper Exports: No est v $3.9B prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell between 6.0-7.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior Govt Bond Purchases
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Dec Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (Seasonally Adj: No est v 47.5 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 46.2 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $60B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 13:30 (EU) ECB chief Draghi speaks in Berlin, Germany
- 18:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel meets with Greece PM Samaras in Berlin, Germany


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