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Monday July 11, 2005 - 13:41:18 GMT
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Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (11 July 2005)

The euro appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2030 level and remained supported around the $1.1955 level. Options traders cite barriers around the $1.1850 level and this may support the common currency to the downside. The pair derived some support from news that Luxembourg voters approved the embattled European Union constitution yesterday, a vote that had been deemed close and could have easily spelled the end of Prime Minister Juncker’s political career. France’s and Holland’s recent decisions to not ratify the constitution make it highly unlikely it will be approved EU-wide in its current format. Data released in the eurozone today saw the June German wholesale price index climb +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y, up from May’s +1.7% y/y pace. Also, French May manufacturing output printed at +0.5% m/m and was off 0.1% y/y. Germany’s DIW Institute is reporting Q2 GDP will likely expand 0.2% q/q following its 1.0% q/q climb in Q1, primarily on account of weak final private demand. Germany will release its 2006 spending program on Wednesday and government spending is expected to increase 0.9% to €256.5 billion. EMU-12 finance ministers are meeting today and tomorrow to discuss the impact of oil on the eurozone economy. It is estimated that oil prices around US$ 60 will trim some 0.2% to 0.3% from the eurozone’s economy. The European Commission is said to be waiting until October or November to change its growth forecasts. In U.S. news, May international trade data will be released on Wednesday and CPI data will be released on Thursday followed by industrial production, producer prices, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. Euro offers are cited around the $1.2040/ 50 level ahead of more selling pressure around the $1.2100 figure.


The yen gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥112.25 level and remained supported around the ¥111.75 level. Technically, today’s low is right around the 76.4% retracement level of the move from ¥114.90 to ¥101.65. Finance minister Tanigaki spoke and said “quick and decisive” action is needed by China to revalue the yuan. Bank of Japan Policy Board will convene this week and its interest rate decision is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Most traders believe the central bank will not begin to unwind it’s long-standing quantitative easing policy until there is stable, positive inflation growth in Japan’s economy. The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 0.94% to close at ¥11,674.79. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥110.90 level. The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¥134.60 level and remained supported around the ¥134.05 level. Euro bids are cited around the ¥133.85 level. In Chinese news, it was reported that H1 exports climbed 32.7% and China’s trade position was a surplus of US$ 39.65 billion compared with a deficit of US$ 6.82 billion one year ago. It was also reported that H1 tax revenue growth slowed to 21.7% y/y and H1 crude oil imports climbed 3.9% to 63.42 million tons. Annual bilateral trade talks between the U.S. and China have opened amidst increasingly contentious relations between the two countries. People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou was quoted as saying “certain unnecessary foreign exchange controls should be actively abandoned to create conditions to promote full convertibility of (the yuan).” He added “The yuan should gradually become fully convertible to support a 'go out' policy for Chinese firms.”

The British pound reclaimed some recent lost ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.7460 level and remained supported around the $1.7360 level. Sterling fell more than 200 pips last week and traders want to see if it can make some sustainable gains now that the shock of last week’s terrorist attacks has settled. Data released in the U.K. today saw the May global goods trade deficit narrow to ₤4.962 billion from ₤5.132 billion, consistent with expectations. Other data released today saw June producer output prices print at -0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y while core producer prices were unchanged m/m and +2.2% y/y. Also, June producer input prices were up 2.1% m/m and 12.1% y/y, the largest rise since May 1985, as oil price pressures continued to seep into the U.K. economy. Additionally, the ODPM reported U.K. house prices were up 6.0% y/y in May, down from April’s 6.9% y/y pace. Cable offers are cited around the $1.7465/ $1.7500 levels. The euro was flat vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.6900 figure and remained supported around the ₤0.6875 level.


The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2935 level and was capped around the CHF 1.3005 level. Stops were reached below the CHF 1.2955 level during the move lower. Swiss producer and import prices will be released on Thursday followed by retail sales on Friday. Dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.2905/ 1.2855 levels. The euro was flat vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency was capped around the CHF 1.5570 level and supported around the 1.5545 level.


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