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Tuesday January 8, 2013 - 11:49:31 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Unemployment continue to climb in Europe; Greece begins 2013 funding on solid footing EU Market Update: Unemployment continue to climb in Europe; Greece begins 2013 funding on solid footing
Tue, 08 Jan 2013 5:50 AM EST

- Aus trade Nov Trade Balance registers its biggest deficit in 5 years
- Japan economic stimulus draft: To closely monitor fx moves, take appropriate actions when required
- Japan Fin Min Aso: Japan will buy ESM bonds; such purchases will help stabilize the JPY
- Fitch: India sovereign rating might be cut within the next 12-24 months; **Reminder: India may be first of BRIC nations to lose investment-grade rating.
- Swiss Unemployment hits 2-year high; Italy matches its 9-year high; Euro Zone at fresh EMU record level
- German Nov exports recorded their sharpest monthly drop in over a year
- Greece starts 2013 funding on solid footing
- Belgium Bill auction saw steep decline in bid-to-cover ratios (Risk on sentiment???)
- Alcoa [AA] kicks off US Corp earnings after the market close today

***Economic Data***
- (AU) Australia Dec Foreign Reserves: A$47.3B v A$46.2B prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Gross Reserves: $50.7B v $51.0Be; Net Reserves: $48.0B v $48.4B prior
- (CH) Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate: 3.3% v 3.3%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj): 3.0% v 3.0%e
- (DE) Germany Nov Current Account: 15.3B v 16.0Be; Trade Balance: 17.0B v 15.8Be; Imports M/M: -3.7% v 0.5%e; Exports M/M: -3.4% v -0.5%e
- (FR) France Nov Trade Balance: -4.3B v -4.8Be

- (HU) Hungary Nov Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v -3.8% prior; Y/Y: -6.9% v -3.5%e
- (TR) Turkey Nov Industrial Production WDA M/M: +1.5% v -2.4% prior; Y/Y: +3.1% v -0.8% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: +11.3 v -5.7% prior
- (EU) ECB: 105M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 127M prior; 244.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 252.6B prior
- (NO) Norway Nov Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 7.1% v 6.9%e
- (NO) Norway Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.7% prior
- (NO) Norway Nov Industrial Production M/M: -3.6% v 4.8% prior; Y/Y: -3.5% v 2.5% prior
- (IT) Italy Nov Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 11.1% v 11.2%e; matches high since Jan 2004
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Retail Sales M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -2.6% v -2.1%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Unemployment Rate: 11.8% v 11.8%e (fresh EMU record level)
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Business Climate Indicator: -1.12 v -1.09e; Final Consumer Confidence: -26.5 v -26.6e; Economic Confidence: 87.0 v 86.3e; Industrial Confidence: -14.4 v -14.5e; Services Confidence: -9.8 v -11.5e

- (PT) Portugal Dec Consumer Confidence: -59.8 v -59.0 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -4.4 v -4.3 prior
- (IT) Bank of Italy Dec Balance-Sheet Aggregates: ECB funding to banks in Italy: 271.8B vs. 273.3B prior (5th straight monthly decline)
- (BE) Belgium Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.5% prior

Fixed Income:
- Ireland opened books for syndicated re-opening of 5.5% coupon 2017 bond; Guidance seen at 260bps over mid-swaps (implied yield about 3.3%)
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency: To sell new 10-year DSL bond in near future
- (PL) Poland to sell 1.0B in new 2019 benchmark bond
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 3.2B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 0% 2016 DSL Bond; Avg Yield 0.318% v 0.129% prior
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK3.72B in 2016 and 2023 Bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B vs. ZAR2.1B indicated in 2031 and 2048 bonds
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF1.188B in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield -0.150%
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total 1.1B vs. 1.1B in 2022 and 2062 RAGB bonds
- Sold 550M in 3.40% Nov 2022 RAGB; Avg Yield 1.838% v 1.706% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.47x v 2.61x prior
- Sold 500M in 3.8% Jan 2062 RAGB; Avg Yield 2.82% v 3.021% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.02x v 2.08x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 77.7B vs. 80Be in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold total 2.6B vs.2.0B indicated in 4-week and 26-week Bills
- Sold 975M vs. 750M indicated in 4-week Bills; Avg Yield 3.95% v 3.99% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.31x v 1.30x prior
- Sold 1.63B vs. 1.25B indicated in 26-week Bills; Avg Yield 4.30% v 4.38% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.62x v 1.54x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. target in 3-Months Treasury Bills; Avg Yield 5.45% v 5.49% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.92x
- (UK) DMO sold 1.5B in 4.75% Dec 2030 Gilts; Avg Yield 2.786% v 2.586% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1,83x v 2.06x prior; Tail 0.2bps vs. 0.2bps prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 3.05B vs. 3.3B indicated in 3-month and 6-month bills
- Sold 1.507B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield -0.006% v -0.032% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.65x v 8.77x prior
- Sold 1.540B in 6-month Bills; Avg yield +0.011% v -0.010% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.23x v 5.46x prior


Indices: FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,069,
DAX -0.10% at 7,725, CAC-40 +0.30% at 3,717, IBEX-35 +0.20% at 8,432, FTSE MIB +0.40% at 16,966, SMI +0.30% at 7,070, S&P 500 Futures -0.20%at 1,454

- European equity indices are mostly higher. Italy's FTSE MIB has outperformed, while the German DAX has lagged. European banks are broadly higher following the sharp gains seen on Monday's session. Outperformers include French banks, while Spanish banks have lagged. Resource related shares are mostly lower, tracking the weakness in copper prices. In terms of peripheral issuance, companies which have come to the market to sell bonds include Portuguese bank BES, Banco Popular and Telefonica.

- UK movers [Vodafone +2% (speculation related to jv with Vodafone), Balfour Beatty flat (reaffirmed outlook, CEO change); African Barrick Gold -20% (stake sale talks broke down), Robert Walters -4.5% (Q4 results), Debenhams -4% (trading update, lowered margin guidance), Topps Tiles -3.7% (Q1 sales), McBride -2.5% (H1 results), Segro -2% (trading update), Domino's Pizza -2% (sales update), Tullow Oil -1.5% (broker downgrade), Persimmon -1% (trading update), HSBC -0.50% (concerns related to Ping An stake sale)]
- Germany movers [Solarworld +6% (Germany wants talks related to renewable costs to be accelerated),Beiersdorf +2% (broker commentary), Praktiker +2% (Q4 sales); HannoverRe -1.5% (broker downgrade), MunichRe -1.4% (broker downgrade)]
- France movers [Pages Jaunes +3.5% (acquisition); Air France -0.50%(monthly traffic, oil prices)]
Italy movers [Generali +1% (insurance-related acquisition); Beni Stabili -1.5% (convertible bond offering), Banca Monte Paschi -1% (profit-taking)]
- Austria movers [Telecom Austria -2% (financial guidance)]
- Dutch movers [TNT Express -2 (Fedex said to be not interested in the firm's assets)]

- ECB's Weidmann
(Germany) again warned that ECB anti-crisis measures are getting out of hand; they should not cause more damage than they prevent
- ECB's Honohan (Ireland): OMT bond buying will not restore pre-crisis spreads, Ireland's credit risk premium a poor reward when considering size of fiscal adjustment
- German Chancellor Merkel commented ahead of meeting Greek PM Samaras that she was always interested to hear how Greece's reform process is going
- France Fin Min Moscovici stated that 2013 will be difficult for the global economy. He noted that he had heard concerns from China about the situation in Europe and he also appreciated China support of EMU. He added that European prospects had improved over the last few months
- Greece PM Samaras: Sees the glass as half full as outlook is improving; Greece is delivering on its commitments and Europe is helping us. Greece was making big efforts but suffering heavily from high unemployment
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Monetary Policy Minutes noted that the economy was slowing down more sharply than expected. It did discussed high level of household debt at meeting. Two members sought a lower rate path. Minority member Svensson saw major problems with monetary policy as it had little to do with household debt situation. Minority member Ekholm considered cutting rates in Oct given downside risks. Rate Path should be cut to 0.75% this year. Gov Ingves noted that its stance was based upon assumption that US fiscal cliff would be avoided; risks of high level of household debt remained. Member AC Jochnick saws Europe economic upturn by end of 2013; economy and demand are more important than debt level. - Member Wickman-Parak noted that the central bank discussed two options of 25bps and 50bps rate cut. Believed that a 50bps cut to 0.75% would have had a surprise effect
- Spain Treasury announced its 2013 funding plan with net Issuance seen at 71.0B
and Gross Issuance (ex regions) seen at 121.1B. Gross issuance including regions at 215-230B. Spain was planning on one syndicate issue in 2013. It would issue new 9-month bills and cease to issue the 18-month Bill from February. It did expect lower funding costs in 2013
- Poland Central Bank Dep Gov Kozinski: Might react if PLN currency (zloty) rise is too rapid
- Reports suggested that a chance of a Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut by China's PBoC during January was increasing as reverse repurchases of CNY400B would mature in Jan. An analyst stated that such a move would not a signal of looser monetary policy
- China PBoB adviser Chen stated that China 2013 GDP was seen exceeding 8.0% y/y and that inflation would not be a problem in 2013. New Yuan Loan can easily top the CNY9.0T level and that monetary policy might be more cautious in H2
- Deutsche Bank cuts gold and silver outlook for 2013, 2014 period. It cut 2013 gold forecast by 12.1% to $1856/oz, 2014 by 5% to $1900/oz. For silver it cut its 2013 silver forecast by 16.8% to $37/oz, 2014 by 5% to $38/oz

- The EUR/USD maintained a steady, firm tone in the session. The price action was relative quiet given the vast amount of economic data and debt issuance as most participants appeared to be waiting for Thursday's ECB decision. Expectations of ruling out any rate cuts should keep the pair supported above the 1.30 handle. The Euro sentiment was also boosted by commented during Asia from Japan finance minister Aso thatJapan would buy ESM bonds using FX reserves to help stabilize EUR and JPY.
- The JPY was firmer against the major pairs in its continued retracement from its recent 6-week downtrend. The USD/JPY was at 87.45 just ahead of the NY morning and EUR/JPY cross back below the 115 handle.

Political/ In the Papers:
- (EU) Japan MoF official: To purchase ESM Bonds as early as today - financial press
- (EU) OECD's Gurria: Europe economy expected to further contract going into 2014
- (IR) Ireland Debt Agency to raise new money by selling 2017 syndicated bond in near future; May seek to raise 2B in the offering
- (UK) CFOs believe that the risk of a "triple-dip" recession is declining - London Telegraph
- (CN) China top four banks saw Dec lending at approx CNY164B - Chinese press
- (JP) Japan BoJ member Shirai: Current policy commitment equivalent to inflation target; does not rule out reserve rate cut - financial press
- (JP) Japan govt, BoJ mulling plans to issue policy accord setting shared goals of job stability, 2% inflation target - financial press
- (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Secy Suga: Has no confirmation regarding content of any govt/BoJ policy accord - financial press
- (JP) Japan PM Abe: To compile stimulus package on Friday, 11th Jan - financial press
- USD/JPY: (JP) Some top execs in Japan are concerned the weakness in JPY is too fast - US financial press
- (JP) Fitch: Will not change Japan sovereign rating based on LDP campaign pledges - financial press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ES) Spain Treasury to provide 2013 funding plan
- (EU) EU Commission Rehn at Economic Summit in Berlin
- (UK) Parliament vote on social spending to be capped at 1%
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Industrial Production M/M: No est v 2.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v -16.7% prior
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Nov Factory Orders M/M: -1.4%e v +3.9% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v -2.4% prior
- 06:00 (CL) Chile Dec CPI M/M: 0.1%e v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 2.1% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: +0.1%e v -0.2% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Industrial Sales M/M: No est v 7.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ESM to sell up to 2B in 3-month bills; Avg yield % v -0.047% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.6x prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2015 and 2022 bonds
- To sell new fixed rate 2015 Bonds
- To sell 8.5% 2022 Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB drains vs. 208.5B target in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt bond purchases
- 07:30 (US) Dec NFIB Small Business Optimism: 87.2e v 87.5 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- (PT) Bank of Portugal releases Winter Economic Bulletin
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) ECB Weekly Forex Reserves
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Consumer Confidence: 95.6e v 94.2 prior
- 10:00 (UK) Foreign Min Hague in Parliament
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Jan IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 46.5e v 45.1 prior
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Dec YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -691.7B prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2018, 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.00-3.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $65B in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Jan Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $32B in 3-Year Notes
- 15:00 (US) Nov Consumer Credit: $13.3Be v $14.2B prior
- 15:00 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks on Economic Outlook in Columbia, SC
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories




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