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Monday July 11, 2005 - 20:46:06 GMT
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Forex: Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

New Zealand Dollar: Payrolls pay off for the NZD
NZD/USD briefly reached 0.6800 on Monday, the rally an extension of the poor US payrolls data released on Friday. With little data out the market was left to ponder last weeks numbers and the USD gave back some of its recent surge in strength against all major currencies. The recent NZD downtrend has run out of momentum and looks to have (temporarily) run its course. The NZD opened near the low around 0.6740 yesterday and in lethargic trading drifted between this level and 0.6765 until the offshore markets awoke. Profit-taking from the recent downtrend and position cutting lead the NZD higher from 0.6746 to 0.6803 overnight, and it opens at 0.6790 this morning.

Australian Dollar: AUD on the up again
After 3 weeks of being driven lower, the AUD was again on the up during yesterday's trading session. The currency initially opened around 0.7400, pushed to this level by Friday's weaker than expected US employment data. The AUD traded a tight range ahead of May housing finance data which fell 0.4%, slightly below market expectation. The rest of the afternoon saw the AUD better bid out of Asia helped in part by stronger commodity prices out of Shanghai. The AUD carried on its upward momentum during the offshore session where it rallied to an intraday high of 0.7488 on broad USD weakness. It opens around 0.7470 this morning.

Major Currencies: Major currencies consolidate ahead of US trade data
Despite a solid overall US jobs report on Friday, disappointment that the headline number came out below market expectations took some of the gloss from the USD, causing major currencies to consolidate against the greenback. Both the euro and the yen improved from lows posted immediately after the US payroll release, 1.1875 and 112.61 respectively and during the domestic session yesterday ranges of 1.1959 - 1.2030 and 111.82 - 112.25 were established. With no data releases of any note, yesterday, the recovery of major currencies against their US counterpart continued during the offshore session. The euro established ground above 1.20 amid reports that the UAE Central Bank was considering a strategic purchase of euros and on news that Luxembourg had ratified the EU constitution. With the market now focusing on Wednesday's US trade data, USD/JPY gave back some recent gains to trade between 111.68 and 112.10 overnight and Sterling improved from 19 month lows, seen after last week's London bombings, to once again settle above 1.75.

No major US data. The Kansas City Fed index rose from 9 to 19 in June, its first rise since the March survey. However the index is not seasonally adjusted, and it comes out after the national ISM manufacturing survey, so is of little interest. Jeff Lacker, the Richmond Fed president (and hence not a voter on the FOMC this year) said "I think it's still too early to be forecasting a pause [in Fed rate increases]... I'm comfortable with the measured pace".

Canadian housing starts jump 7.2% in June. Although strong at first glance, the bounce in housing starts was not broad-based, being driven by a 17% surge in the volatile multiples component. Single urban starts were up just 0.1%. Regionally, Ontario was exceptionally strong and Quebec also rose, but the other provinces all recorded declines. That aside, the construction sector is robust, supported by low interest rates.

UK trade deficit narrows from £5.1bn to £5.0bn in May. A slight pull-back in imports coupled with exports edging higher saw the trade deficit narrow slightly in May. The figures were flattered, however, by a £382mn oil surplus, up from just £28mn the previous month. Even so, trends in both exports and imports are strong, with strong growth in capital goods a signal that business investment may make a stronger contribution to Q2 domestic demand.

UK input prices surged 2.1% in June, mainly due to higher crude oil prices. Despite this, there was no evidence of pass-through into core output prices, though firms may be forced to pass costs on soon.

Events Today
Country Release Last Forecast
NZ Q2 NZIER Business Confid -28.2% n/f
Aust Jun NAB Business Survey 13 n/f
Jpn Jun Corporate Goods Prices %yr 1.8% 1.6%
Jun Consumer Confidence 48.2 48.4
Bank of Japan Meeting
UK Jun CPI %yr 1.9% 1.9%
Can May New House Prices 0.6% n/f
Bank of Canada Rate Decision 2.5% 2.5%

Latest Research papers/Publication
• NZ Q2 CPI Preview (11 July)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (11 July)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (11 July)
• NZ Q2 Employment Confidence Index (6 July)
• NZ Economic Overview July 2005 (4 July)
• NZ Weekly Forex Outlook (4 July)
• NZ Weekly Interest Rate Wrap-up (4 July)
• A capital idea (1 July)
These papers/publications are available on Online Research on
Westpac Institutional Bank’s website (

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 24 May 2005. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
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AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
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Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

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