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Wednesday January 9, 2013 - 05:43:18 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Alcoa kicks off earnings season on a strong note; JPY weakens on more BOJ easing speculation; AUD falls on weak retail data - Source TradeTheNews.com

- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.1% V +0.3%E (first decline in four months) - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV JOB VACANCIES Q/Q: -6.9% V +4.1% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 4.7% V 3.4% PRIOR (2nd straight increase) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -5.4% V -2.0% PRIOR (2nd month of decline) - (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.0% V 3.0%E - (MA) MALAYSIA NOV TRADE BALANCE (MYR): 9.3B V 8.8BE - (UK) UK DEC BRC SHOP PRICE INDEX Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.7%E ***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:00 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.6% - S&P/ASX +0.3% - Kospi -0.2% - Shanghai Composite +0.1% - Hang Seng +0.4% - Mar S&P500 +0.1% at 1,457 - Feb gold -0.2% at $1,658/oz - Feb Crude Oil -0.1% at $93.02/brl ***Notes/Observations*** - Asian equity markets are trading firmer despite the weak lead from Wall St as better than expected top line from Alcoa seems to have improved sentiment. Earnings came in as expected, but revenues were much stronger than consensus, while 2013 aluminum demand growth estimated was amped up to 7% from 6% in 2012 and 6.5% required to meet Alcoa's long-term targets. Shares are trading up over 1% afterhours despite the subsequent announcement of a resignation by Alcoa CFO. - AUD rose within 10 pips of 3-week highs at $1.0530 amid multi-month highs in iron ore prices before being knocked down by another disappointing economic report for November. After weaker than expected trade balance released overnight, retail sales contracted 0.1% on m/m basis - the first decline in 4 months - sending AUD/USD to $1.0485 session lows. Analysts are turning more mixed regarding further AUD strength, pointing to elevated leading inflation indicators out of China possibly requiring a less dovish than expected central bank. - JPY opened the session on firm footing as USD/JPY extended its recent consolidation below the 87 handle, before renewed speculation of more BOJ easing took the winds out of the profit-taking move. Financial press citing sources noted the BOJ will consider adopting a 2% inflation target and may also continue to expand its asset purchase program beyond the current 101T level. Cabinet officials also continued to insinuate that the govt will seek to appoint more like-minded officials to the policy board of the BOJ once the Gov Shirakawa and 2 Dep Gov terms expire this spring. Session lows in JPY hit once an analyst with Fitch noted a downgrade of Japan is not out of the question if the sovereign does not control its spending. ***Currencies/Fixed Income/Commodities*** - (JP) Fitch analyst: Would consider a downgrade of Japan without action on debt - USD/JPY: Rises to session highs above 87.50 following comments from Fitch - AUD/USD: Falls about 20 pips to $1.0495 after worse than expected retail sales data - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES CRUDE: +2.36M V +1.5ME (first build in 4 weeks); GASOLINE: +7.93M V +2.5ME; DISTILLATE: +5.85M V +1ME; UTILIZATION: 88.9% V 90.5% W/W - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 0.9 tons to 1,339.8 tons (lowest since Nov 15th) - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,112 tons from 10,061 tons - update as of Jan 7th ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reports late-Dec avg daily crude production -0.5% to 1.90M tons - financial press - (CN) Former World Bank Economist Lin Yifu: China economy has potential to grow above 8% for the next 20 years - SMH - (CN) According to chief economist of China's Industrial Bank, Dec economic data will be mixed with stronger retail sales but weaker industrial production and investment - Shanghai Daily - (CN) China Bank of Communications (BoCom): Recent data have confirmed economic recovery; Attention now shifting to CPI data in light of recent rise in food prices - Shanghai Daily - (CN) According to Shanghai Hudson Recruitment employment agency, 2 out of 3 applicants refuse final offers from employers because salaries are too low - Shanghai Daily - (CN) According to Shanghai Deovolente Realty Co, Shanghai transaction volume of pre-owned homes in 2012 rose nearly 50% to 188.2K units - Shanghai Daily - (JP) Japan stimulus set to exceed 20T - Yomiuri News - (KR) According to a survey by Yonhap, 15 out of 21 economists expect Bank of Korea (BOK) to keep rates unchanged for the 3rd consecutive meeting; 6 expect a 25bp rate cut - (VZ) Hugo Chavez reportedly will NOT be sworn in for a new term on Jan 10, as was previously scheduled - financial press ***Equities*** - FIG: Acquiring a services of bad debts and assets in China, Fan Ya Tai , on expectation of a sharp rise in China's non-performing loans - FT - Dongfeng 489.HK: Reports 2012 passenger vehicle sales +5.4% y/y at 2.45M units - financial press - Hyundai Motor 005380.KR: China sales said to have accounted for about 20% of total revenue in 2012 - Korean press - Kia 000270.KR: Unveils upgraded versions of its flagship K9 luxury sedan without a price increase at $49.2K - Korean press - AWC.AU: Exec: AWAC margins improved in Q4; sees signs of improving prices in Q1 - financial press - MAH.AU: Sembawang Australia said to have retained council after being denied access to conduct due diligence on MacMahon - AFR - Sharp 6753.JP: Planning to commercialize next generation panels for smartphones in 2014 with Qualcomm - Japan press - PC: CEO: Looking to capitalize on market demand for energy efficiency in homes and automobiles - Nikkei News - Japan Airline 9201.JP: Does not plan to change order for 38 Boeing 787 Dreamliner units following recent engine fire - financial press - Mitsubishi Material 5711.JP: May report 9-month pretax profit little changed y/y around 54B; Rev seen down about 10% below 1T - Nikkei News - Subaru 7270.JP: Subaru 2012 US sales +26% to 336.4k units (record) - Nikkei News - AA: Reports Q4 $0.06 (adj) v $0.06e, R$5.99B v $5.58Be; +1.1% afterhours >- AA: Appoints William F Oplinger as CFO; effective April 1st; to replace Charles D McLane - CLWR: Receives unsolicited proposal from Dish Network to purchase all shares of common stock at $3.30/shr; +8.9% afterhours - STX: Reports prelim Q2 Rev "at least" $3.6B v $3.53Be, Gross margin in excess of 27%; +2.1% afterhours - APOL: Reports Q1 $1.18 v $0.90e, R$1.06B v $1.03Be; -5.4% afterhours

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
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