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Wednesday January 9, 2013 - 11:09:31 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets look ahead to European rate decisions on Thursday; Japanese officials continue to hound BOJ on steps to take

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Markets look ahead to European rate decisions on Thursday; Japanese officials continue to hound BOJ on steps to take
Wed, 09 Jan 2013 5:53 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Alcoa CEO [AA]: China coming back, would not be surprised to see GDP growth above 8%
- IMF's Lagarde: IMF to maintain US 2013 GDP forecast of +2.1%
- Australia Nov Retail Sales data registered its first decline in 4 months
- Fitch analyst: Would consider a sovereign downgrade of Japan without action on debt (**Insight: Fitch current has Japan sovereign rating A+ with a negative outlook. It cut Japan's rating by two notches back on May 22nd 2012)
- Japan Chief Cabinet Secy Suga: To select a new BOJ govt who also sees the need for bold policy easing
- BoJ considering easing again in Jan, most likely via increase in asset purchases; considering 2% inflation target (**Note: BOJ meets on Jan 21-22nd)
- Portugal said not to be considering issuing bonds anytime soon
- UK Nov Trade Deficit come in wider than expectations but improve from month ago levels
- German 5-year BOBL yield climbs to highest level in 3-months at 0.53%


***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Oct GDP Indicator: -0.7% v -1.6% prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank Interest left its Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 2.75%; as expected
- (HU) Hungary Nov Preliminary Trade Balance: 703.8M v 782.5Me
- (CZ) Czech Dec CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e
- (DK) Denmark Nov Trade Balance ex-Shipping (DKK): 7.6B v 6.5Be; Current Account: 9.6B v 10.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Dec Unemployment Rate: 9.4% v 9.4%e; Share of Unemployed between ages 15-64: 7.4% v 6.8% prior
- (RO) Romania Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.5% prelim; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.6% prelim
- (EU) ECB: 121M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 105M prior; 243.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 244.5B prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Budget Balance (SEK): -79.3BB v 8.2B prior
- (NO) Norway Nov Retail Sales Volume M/M: 0.3% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 3.8% prior
- (IT) Italy Q3 YTD Deficit to GDP Ratio: 3.7% v 4.7% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Vehicle Sales: 1.8% v 7.3% prior
- (UK) Nov Visible Trade Balance: -9.2B v -9.0Be; Total Trade Balance: -3.5B v -3.0Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -4.5B v -4.2Be
- (ZA) South Africa Dec SACCI Business Confidence: 93.0 v 91.7 prior
- (GR) Greece Nov Industrial Production: -2.7% v +3.5% prior

Fixed Income:
- (TR) Turkey sold $1.5B in Mar 2023 at 3.473% (lowest yield on record); bid-to-cover: over 2x
- (EU) ECB allotted $60M in 7-Day USD Tender at fixed 0.66% vs. $980M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B vs. SEK3.5B indicated in 1.5% 2023 Bonds; Yield 1.8165% v 1.6158% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.72x v 2.55x prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold total CHF653.1M in 2015 and 2024 bonds
- (DE) Germany sold 4.086B in new 0.50% Feb 2018 BOBL; Avg yield 0.53% v 0.41% prior (highest since Oct); Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.9x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
- Indices: FTSE 100 -0.40% at 6,074
, DAX +0.10% at 7,705, CAC-40 +0.20% at 3,712, IBEX-35 +0.60% at 8,507, FTSE MIB +1.1% at 17,145, SMI +0.50% at 7,103, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,453

- European equity markets are broadly higher, although off of the session's best levels. The opening gains were partially attributed to Alcoa's quarterly results and the weakness in the yen. European banks are broadly higher. Outperformers in the sector include Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Lloyds , SocGen and Unicredit. Underperformers include BNP, Credit Suisse and the larger Spanish banks. Resource related firms are trading higher, tracking the gains in copper prices. In terms of the bond market, today has been another heavy day of corporate issuance. Peripheral companies which have come to the market include Bank of Ireland, CaixaBank, Gas Natural and Intesa.

- Germany movers [Rheinmetall +4% (broker commentary), Air Berlin +3.5% (Dec traffic), ProsiebenSat +2.5% (broker commentary),CropEnergies +2% (9-month results), Deutsche Telekom +2% (T-Mobile USA may begin selling iPhone in 3-4 months), Rational +1.7% (broker commentary), SAP +1% (planning to restructure North American distribution operations), Software AG +0.50% (sold North American service operations); Solarworld -8% (follows recent gains),Patrizia -3% (broker commentary), Lanxess -2% (broker commentary), Allianz -1.3% (broker commentary)]
- UK movers [Centamin Plc +13% (production update),Lloyds +3% (broker commentary),Galliford +1.5% (H1 guidance);First Group -5% (ex-dividend),Smiths News -4% (ex-dividend), Sainsbury -3% (Q3 sales update), Aviva -2% (broker commentary),Spirit Pub Company -1.8% (ex-dividend), British Land -0.50% (ex-dividend)]
- France movers [SocGen +2% (broker commentary);CGG Veritas -4.5% (Q4 update)Carrefour -3% (concern about Q4 sales), Faurecia -1.5% (Peugeot denied that it planning to sell stake), Peugeot -1% (2012 sales volumes)]
- Spain movers [Banco Popular +5% (outperforms European banking sector), Acciona +1% (said to be considering bid for 800M/year contract)]
- Denmark movers [Bang Olufsen -12% (Q2 results)]
- Dutch movers [Delta Lloyd +6% (Aviva sold shares)]
- Belgium movers [Galapagos +3% (milestone payment from GSK)]

Speakers:
- EU's Rehn:
reiterates view that risk of EMU breakup has been averted but officials must not become complacent
- Finland Fin Min Urpilainen: Country to be active in European crisis management; to maintain its strict stance and defend taxpayer interests
- France Fin Min Moscovci: Approx 30% of China's FX Reserves are in Euro (**implies over 1.0T). He added that China was shifting its economy to increase domestic consumption
- Norway Trade Min Giske: NOK currency at historic strong level and strength was worrisome; increases the necessity of keeping a prudent fiscal policy
- Fitch analyst Renwick commented on Ireland: Progress continued to be made and its recent debt sale added to momentum but market confidence remained fragile. He saw sizeable risks remaining for Ireland with no expectations of bank agreement to reduce debt soon. It remained uncertain whether the country would exit the bailout on time
- Japan Diet to convene on Jan 28th
- Poland PM aide Bielecki commented that Polish interest rate cuts would not stop in coming weeks and it was hard to see Polish CPI pressures in 2013
- India Foreign Min: Violation of cease fire along Line of Control in Kaskmir is a matter of great concern
- German BGA Federation
stated that 2013 Real Wholesales Sales could rise by 0.5% and saw Germany's GDP growth below 1%. It stressed that Germany needed to improve competiveness.
- Germany's DIW Institute forecasted Germany 2013 GDP at 0.9% and 2014 GDP growth at over 2.0%
- razil Treasury head Augustin: Brazil debt burden will keep falling even if primary budget surplus goal is not achieved in full
- Japan PM Abe reiterated his view that BOJ should take sufficient monetary steps to achieve the 2% inflation target and sought the upcoming monetary policy meeting (Jan 21-22nd) meeting to deepen cooperation with BoJ with the Govt
- Japan Fin Min Aso: Reiterates seeks stronger cooperation between BOJ and Govt
- UAE Oil Min expressed confidence that energy markets would remain stable. He noted that his country to be a net importer of gas within a few years. UAE to reach 3M bpd capacity during 2013 (Note: In late 2011, capacity was estimated at 2.7M bpd). Current production capacity is 2.8M bpd; produced 2.6M bpd in Dec
- Japan Econ Min Amari noted that its Fin Min Aso noted that monetary policy alone was not enough to revive Japanese economy. PM Abe asked BOJ to adopt 2% inflation target and that reviving economy was top priority. Abe called for fiscal reform plan compatible with economic revitalization
- IEA Head commented that Oil price may act as brake on world economy and saw a major reorientation of oil flows towards Asia. He added that US energy revolution would have a global impact. EU, China, India to be over 80% oil import dependent by 2035. Global shift was underpinned by huge energy investments

Currencies:
- EUR/USD should stay in the 1.30-1.3160 range and will likely hold ahead of key events tomorrow which include a Spanish bond auction and the ECB monetary policy meeting
- The JPY remained softer in the session against the major currency pairs. Dealers attributed its tone to comments from Fitch Rating Agency analyst who commented that it would consider another sovereign downgrade of Japan without action taken on its debt. (**Insight: Fitch current has Japan sovereign rating A+ with a negative outlook. It cut Japan's rating by two notches back on May 22nd 2012). Also weighing on the JPY were renewed reports that the upcoming BOJ rate decision on Jan 2122nd has the central bank considering another round of easing most likely via increase in asset purchases. The BOJ was also thought to seriously; consider the 2% inflation target sought by the new Govt.
- There were earlier reports that Portugal might issue bonds. The 10-year Portugal Govt Bond yield was higher by 20bps earlier today and have since pared the rise after reports that Portugla would not issue bonds. The 10-year yield was last at 6.36%, up 6bps in session
- Spain 2-year/10-year Govt Bond curve at 265bps, widest level in two-months ahead of Thursday's bond auction

Political/ In the Papers:
- (EU) World Economic Forum (WEF) believes that the euro zone will continue to present risks for the global economy in 2013 - London Telegraph
- (FR) Senior France Official: Rumors of a sovereign downgrade of France are false
- (ES) Bank of Spain to reform supervisory model- Cinco Dias; Will include semi-annual reviews of institutions under surveillance
- (CH) As a percentage of GDP, the SNB's asset purchases are larger than those of the Fed - US financial press; Notes the SNB's currency purchases make it vulnerable to changes in exchange rates, but the central bank is not allowed to hedge fx risk; Suggests if the euro declined by 10% it could have a significant impact on the central bank's capital level.
-(JP) BOJ said to be evaluating conducting additional monetary policy easing in January through asset purchases - financial press; May set 2% inflation target and double the price goals.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU President Van Rompuy meets Irish Officials in Dublin
- (PL) Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut the Base Rate by 25bps to 4.00%
- (RU) Russia Dec Final Consumer Prices M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prelim; Y/Y: 6.6%e v 6.6% prelim; CPI YTD: 6.6%e v 6.0% prior
- (RU) Russia Dec Final CPI Core M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prelim; Core YTD: No est v 5.3% prior
- (RU) Russia Dec Reserve Fund: No est v $61.4B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $87.5B prior
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Nov Industrial Production M/M: +1.0%e v -2.6% prior; Y/Y: -2.9%e v -3.7% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Trade Balance: No est v -1.1B prior
- (EU) OECD Nov Inflation Y/Y: No est v 2.2% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 2017 and 2019 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 4th: No est v -10.4% prior
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Dec Housing Starts (annualized): 195.0Ke v 196.1K prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Final Trade Balance: -$1.3Be v -$1.3B prelim
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 4.2% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly Currency Flows
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Commodity Price Index M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 8.2% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 15:00 (IT) Italy PM Monti, MEP Goulard to present book in Rome

 

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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