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Monday July 11, 2005 - 22:03:35 GMT
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Euro Rebounds But Not Out Of The Woods Yet

DailyFX Fundamentals 07-11-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

· Euro Rebounds But Not Out Of The Woods Yet
· Pound Rebounds On Stronger Inflation Data
· No Surprises Expected From The BoJ

US Dollar

For once, it was the dollar that sold off significantly against the euro and not the opposite. Over the past few weeks, the market has become conditioned to a strong dollar rally, but with the fifth consecutive day of gains, the euro may appear to have taken over the reins for the time being. Yet despite today’s move it may still be too early to jump on the reversal bandwagon. Although we rarely inject technicals into our Daily Fundamentals report, we can not help but mention that the EURUSD has failed multiple times at the 20-day SMA. This time around we are testing the SMA once again, which means that we need to see a significant break above the moving average before we can expect prices to make a meaningful test of the 1.2300 level. This week is inflation week across the globe with the US releasing both consumer and producer price indexes. Energy prices increased as much as 19 percent over the past month, suggesting that headline inflation indexes around the world could experience sharp rebounds in the month of June. Most data expected from the US this week including retail sales are expected to be bullish for the dollar. If this is really the case, traders should be even more cautious of the strength of the recent move in the dollar. Meanwhile, oil prices received some respite today on the relief that Hurricane Dennis missed the oil rigs in the Gulf. However Hurricane Dennis is only the first hurricane of many expected this summer – this means that even though the oil rigs have been spared this time around, they are not completely out of the woods. The hurricane season generally extends to November 30th.

Euro

The Euro has finally been able to muster a fairly respectable rally thanks to Luxembourg’s support of the EU Constitution. Although Luxembourg’s vote does not help to revive the EU Constitution, it is certainly a measure of confidence for those who have laid down hopes that the UK will be delivering an actionable and agreeable proposal on reforming the EU tomorrow. With a population of only 465,000, Luxembourg has little sway on the entire region, especially since the votes were fairly close with 56.5 percent voting in favor of the constitution while 43.5 percent voted against it. The Euro also benefited from the first of the Paris Club payments by Russia. A few months ago we began talking about the payments which are loans made to countries in distress. Meanwhile French industrial production rebounded in May but came in slightly softer than expected, highlighting the divergence between French and German economic performance. Germany has benefited significantly from the lower value of the Euro while France seems to only be experiencing minimal respite. Much of Europe is still focused on the terror attacks in London and some of the speeches and announcements scheduled for tomorrow from the EU and ECB could touch on the same topic.

British Pound

Once again, fundamental news dominated the currency market, convincing traders to push the British pound higher through both the $1.74 and $1.75 levels. Most notably on the session, market participants focused on higher producer prices. Paid at the manufacturer’s level, prices surged to near 20 year highs at 12.1 percent in the month of June. Mostly higher on rising crude oil prices, the report suggested that inflation may still be looming in the economy in spite of previous data that indicated otherwise. As a result, the report sparked speculation that central bankers may not be readily considering an interest rate reduction as has widely been accepted, keeping a lot of carry trade expectations intact. Separately, tomorrow marks the day that British Prime Minister Tony Blair will release his proposed agenda that will be the focus of his six month EU presidency. Including both climate change and trade issues, Mr. Blair looks to be focusing on including an end to agricultural export subsidies in 2010 and closer EU and US cooperation in increasing energy efficiency. This will no doubt raise concerns over further confrontations with French President Jacques Chirac as the two had locked horns earlier over the EU referendum and its subsequent subsidies. Ultimately, if tensions persist, further fears of political instability may come to surface creating more downward pressure on the common currency.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen gained some footing in the session as crude oil prices declined from all time highs set on Friday. Although slightly abated, fears still persist that higher energy prices will crimp the world’s second largest economy’s charge in the second half of the year. However, it seems as though climbing prices still have no effect on the current deflationary environment plaguing the region. As a result, market participants have all but accepted the fact that Bank of Japan officials will likely keep benchmark interest rates at zero when they meet tomorrow. In light of pick ups in consumer spending and heightened confidence on behalf of business executives, the current expansion remains insufficient to warrant any rate hike considerations. As a result, holding off until after higher output and growth figures are released, the central bank is expected to continually pump cash into the market in support of a quantitative monetary easing policy.

 

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