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Thursday January 10, 2013 - 11:33:58 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Spain begins 2013 bond issuance on solid footing with 10-year yield back below 5%; Focus turns to ECB post rate decision press conference EU Market Update: Spain begins 2013 bond issuance on solid footing with 10-year yield back below 5%; Focus turns to ECB post rate decision press conference
Thu, 10 Jan 2013 5:38 AM EST

- China money supply and loans data come lower than expected. Trade surplus bigger than expected with both imports and exports coming in higher than market expectations
- Focus on ECB press conference. Dealers noting that highly unlikely ease or any future possibility of an ease is mentioned
- S&P: 2013 could be watershed year for Europe as it could start to overcome debt crisis
- No use of the ECB marginal lending facility for first time since Aug 2011
- UK 10-year Index-Linked Gilt yield at -0.97%, record low after Office of National Stats (ONS) presented its RPI recommendations
- Spain begins 2013 bond issuance on solid footing; sells total 5.8B vs.
4-5B range with lower yields to boot
- Italy 12-month Bill auction also respectable with yield at 3-year low
- Spanish 10-year gov't yield moves below 5%; lowest level since March 2012
- USDA on Friday is expected to estimate last year's drought-decimated
corn crop at a six-year low

***Economic Data***
- Indonesia Central Bank leaves Reference Rate unchanged at 5.75%; as expected

- (FI) Finland Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.9% v -0.3% prior
- (FR) Bank of France Dec Business Sentiment: 91 v 91e
- (FR) France Dec Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 125.02 v 125.12e

- (FR) France Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (FR) France Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -3.6% v -4.0%e
- (FR) France Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: +0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -4.6% v -5.1%e

- (DK) Denmark Dec CPI M/M: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.3%e
- (DK) Denmark Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.3%e
- ECB: 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 121.0M prior; 233.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 243.5B prior (**Note: No use of the ECB marginal lending facility for first time since Aug 2011)
- (SE) Sweden Dec CPI Headline Rate M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.2%e; CPI Level: 314.61v 314.07e
- (SE) Sweden Dec CPI Underlying Rate (CPIF) M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Industrial Production M/M: -1.3%% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -4.3% v -3.3%e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Industrial Orders M/M: -5.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -2.1% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Dec CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.6%e
- (NL) Netherlands Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.0%e
- (DE) German Nov plant, equipments orders Y/Y: -3.0%; Orders YTD: +5.0% y/y - VDMA
- (NO) Norway Dec CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (NO) Norway Dec CPI Underlying M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.3%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Producer Prices incl. Oil M/M: 0.0% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v 0.0% prior
- UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Dec Food Price Index: 209.0 v 210.9 prior (lowest reading since June 2012)
- (GR) Greece Dec Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 0.8 v 1.0% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.3%e
- (GR) Greece Oct Unemployment Rate: 26.8% v 26.2% prior (fresh record high)

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency
(Tesoro) sold total 5.8B vs. 4.0-5.0B indicated range in 2015, 2018 and 2026 bonds
- Sold 3.4B in new March 2.75% 2015 Bono bond; Avg Yield 2.476% v 3.282% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.07x v 2.03x prior; Maximum Yield 2.58% v 3.391% prior; Tail 11.1bps v 10.9bps prior
- Sold 1.95B in Jan 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 3.988% v 4.680% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.59x v 1.57x prior; Maximum Yield 4.033% v 4.769% prior; Tail bps 4.5v 8.9bps prior
- Sold 470M in 5.9% Jul 2026 Bono; Avg Yield 5.555% v 6.191% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.9x v 2.08x prior; Max Yield: 5.569% v 6.218% prior; Tail 1.4bps
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 9.5B vs. 8.5B indicated in 12-month Bills; Avg yield 0.864% (lowest since Jan 2010) v 1.456% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.79x v 1.94x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF70,5B vs. HUF47B indicated in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds

FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,107,
DAX +0.30% at 7,739, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3,713, IBEX-35 +0.20% at 8,619, FTSE MIB +0.70% at 17,442, SMI flat at 7,150, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,460

- European equity markets are broadly higher, following the release of better than expected Chinese trade data and bond auction results out of Spain. Today's gains have so far been led by the Italian FTSE MIB, while the FTSE 100 is trading below the more than 4-year highs seen on Wednesday's session. European banks are mixed. Outperformers include Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, Intesa, RBS and SocGen. Laggards include Barclays, BBVA, BNP and UBS. Resources related firms are mostly higher, supported by Chinese trade data. Looking ahead, markets are expected to focus on rate decisions out of the ECB and the Bank of England (BoE).

- UK movers [Sig +7% (FY12 guidance), TT Electronics +7% (trading update), Bunzl +3.5% (acquisition),Tesco +2% (sales update), Lonmin +2% (broker commentary), Pace +2% (FY sales guidance), Hays +2% (Q2 update); Marks & Spencer -4.5% (Q3 sales)]
- France movers [ArcelorMittal +2.3% (priced capital raise), EADS +1% (broker commentary); GDF Suez -1.4% (broker commentary),France Telecom -1% (comments related to 2013 mobile rates)]
- Spain movers [Bankia +5% (outperforms banking sector), Fomento +4% (speculated related to CEO change); Caixabank -4% (underperforms banking sector)]
- Switzerland movers [Swatch -2% (FY sales), Sika +1% (FY sales)]
- Italy movers [Finmeccanica +3.5% (asset sale speculation)]
- Dutch movers [Philips +3.5% (broker commentary), Delta Lloyd +2.5% (broker commentary)]

- UK Office of National Stats (ONS) presented its RPI recommendations and noted that the index would remain unchanged
but to incorporate a new formula. The new index would be published alongside RPI. It saw "significant value" in keeping RPI
- UK Treasury Min noted that future linker cash flow to continue to be RPI based and it would continue issuing RPI-Linked Gilts. It would consider other implications in due course
- Senior German Chancellor Merkel ally: Cyprus cannot get help if it is not ready to apply EU rules on transparency, money laundering
- Belgium Fin Min Vanackere: Europe still has a long way to go, though there are signs of recovery
- Bank of Italy money & banking report noted that Nov Business Loan volumes -3.4% y/y; Household Loan volume -0.3% y/y ; Bad loans +16.7% and Bank Deposits: +6.6% y/y
- Poland Fin Min Rostowski: Reiterates view that ending interest rate cuts at this time would be a serious mistake
- Greece Pasok MP Aidonis to become independent MP (**Note: The coalition govt still has a majority in the 300 member Parliament with 163 seats following the move
- Ex-ECB's Orphanides: ECB should cut rates today to fight the region's worst recession in its history; Rate cut won't compromise price stability; OMT bond buying has given Europe a false sense of security. Without OMT govts would have acted
- EU's Juncker stated during his last appearance before EU Parliament as head of Eurogroup that 2012 was a pretty good year for EMU as the region was in better shape compare to prior year. Remaining ratifications of treaty must not be taken for granted
- ESM must be toolbox able to recap banks directly and must have some degree of retroactivity
- Stimulus Draft on Japan showed that Gov to urge BOJ to pursue bold monetary measures with a clear price target. Japan weighed steps to stabilize FX markets using special account
- Japan PM Abe: Reiterates view that is important to revive the domestic economy and escape from strong JPY currency
- Japan New Komeito (coalition partner) leader Yamaguchi: Stimulus to be 10T
- BOJ said to consider increasing FY14 inflation forecast at upcoming policy meeting
- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco: CPI seen within target for 2013 and 2014
- Indonesia Central Bank: 2012 GDP growth likely around 6.3% with growth accelerating in 2013 and 2014 period
- Saudi Arabia Dec Oil Production at 9.02M bps vs. 9.49M bps prior month

- The EUR and GBP currencies maintain narrow ranges ahead of today's policy decisions from the BoE and ECB with no changes expected in either central bank's key rates. The main focus will be ECB's Draghi post rate decision press conference and whether the door would be open for possible future rate cuts. Dealers noted that highly it would be unlikely for the ECB to cut rates today or give hints towards possibility of any future ease be mentioned. The 1.3000 level remained key support in the pair with Euro sell-stops building below 1.2970.
- The EUD/USD did drift higher to test 1.31 following solid auction results from both Spain and Italy. Spain began 2013 funding in similar fashion as last year sell well above its intended range with yield declining.
- PM Abe formally asked the BoJ to introduce a 2% inflation target at its next meeting and to weigh further easing. Reports again circulated that BOJ would consider increasing FY14 inflation forecast at its upcoming policy meeting on Jan 21-22nd. The USD/JPY remained above 88 level after a s timulus Draft noted that the Gov urged BOJ to pursue bold monetary measures with a clear price target and that Japan weighed steps to stabilize FX markets using special account
- The AUD currency was well supported in early Europe trading following the improvement in China trade data

Political/ In the Papers:
- White House: Reiterates President Obama has no intention of using the 14th amendment to increase the debt limit; there is no alternative to Congress raising the debt ceiling
- (US) President Obama said to have chosen to nominate current White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew for Treasury Secretary, replacing outgoing Geithner - press
- (US) Moody's: Risk of US default on treasury debt is 'extremely low' - financial press; See debt-to-GDP ratio peaking at about 80% in 2014.
-AIG: decides not to join lawsuit against US govt regarding terms of its rescue
- (EU) IFO/Insee/Istat cut EMU Q4 GDP forecast to -0.4% from -0.1% in forecast in Oct
- EUR/USD: Danske analyst: LTRO repayment might push up Eonia and Euro
- (EU) S&P: The eurozone economy will shrink by another 0.1% in 2013, could be a watershed year for the debt crisis; believes that the EMU still faces formidable challenges.
- (EU) EU finance ministers are planning to make decision on financial transaction tax (Tobin Tax) at meeting on Feb 12th - financial press; 11 EU member states are said to be in favor of the tax.
- (DE) Germany's Nov industrial production data reinforced concerns that the economy may contract in Q4 - London Telegraph
- (PT) IMF report on reducing spending in Portugal : Privatization can fund the layoffs in the public sector - Portugal press; Recommends a 20% headcount reduction to save 2.7B, and a 7% pay cut to save 760M; Suggests raising the retirement age
- (UK) Some analysts believe that the Nov trade data increased the likelihood that the economy will contract in Q4 -
- Continued speculation that the BOJ will introduce a 2% inflation target and announce purchase of additional assets as part of its next meeting

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (VZ) Venezuela Presidential Inauguration
- (EU) EU's Barroso, Ireland PM Kenny press briefing in Ireland
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 5.8%e v 5.5% prior
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jan 4th: No est v $532.0B prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.3%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: -1.1%e v 2.5% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Nov Construction Works Index: No est v 55 prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 9-month Bills
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Main Refi Rate unchanged at 0.75% and leave Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%

- 08:00 (US) Jan RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 46.9 prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 365Ke v 372K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.228Me v 3.245M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.4% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Building Permits M/M: -5.0%e v+ 15.0% prior

- 08:30 (US) Net Export Sales crop data
- 08:30 (EU) ECB chief Draghi holds post rate decision press conference
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018 Bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Gross Fixed Investment: 8.1%e v 3.1% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Oct Global Economic Indicator: 3.9%e v 1.3% prior
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 10:00 (US) Nov Wholesale Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov JOLTs Job Openings: 3.683Me v 3.675M prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 12:00 (DE) ECB's Asmussen (Germany) speaks in Berlin
- 12:20 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends Trade Chamber Event in Baden-Wuerttemberg
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 13:10 (US) Fed's George speaks on Economic Outlook in Kansas City
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on Economy in Madison, Wisconsin
- 16:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Dep Gov Macklem
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Nov Total Current Account: -17.1Be v +376.9B prior; Adj Current Account: 277.4Be v 414.1B prior
- 20:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks in Town Hall Meeting in Minneapolis
- 20:30 (CN) China Dec Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.0% prior; Producer Price Index Y/Y: -1.8%e v -2.2% prior




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