Tuesday July 12, 2005 - 00:45:47 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the Euro vs U.S. Dollar 12th July 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2114 ... 1.2156 ... 1.2184
Support....: 1.2032 ... 1.1990 ... 1.1955 ... 1.1918
The 1.2085-1.2114 area should cap for a while with risk of a move back to 1.1990-1.2030
A much stronger day than expected and there may be further gains to be seen. However, first thing we feel that the risk is lower towards 1.2021-32 (max 1.1990). However, while this support are holds there does seem to be a stronger risk of seeing a move above 1.2085 and 1.2114 with next resistance at 1.2156 and 1.2184.
The breach of 1.2040 implies we need place an immediate bearish stance on hold. It is probable that we should see a move back down to 1.2020-40 but this does stand a good chance of holding. (Max 1.1990). Thus a stronger bearish day will require a move below 1.1990, break of which would send the Euro lower to 1.1918.
Elliott Wave Commetns:
11th July 2005
While the rally from 1.1864 to 1.2040 would not appear to support the possibility of a complex correction the depth of the recovery from 1.1871 on Friday does raise the chance of a sideways consolidation - but this should turn into weakness once the consolidation is complete. Thus we tentatively label the 1.2040 peak as Wave a and we think it likely that 1.1871 was wave b. However, always keep in mind the downside risk with loss of 1.1864 suggesting direct resumption and a move to 1.1750-60 being a 138.2% projection of the intial wave down from 1.2040 - 1.1871.
12th July 2005
The degree of strength seen yesterday places a good deal of confusion over the wave structure from the 1.2283 corrective high. With Fibonacci relationships not matching too well we prefer to hold off for a while to observe the movements over the coming 1-2 days to get a better hold of the structure.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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