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Friday January 11, 2013 - 11:23:00 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Industrial Production data disappoints; Italy 2-year BTP auction goes smooth

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Industrial Production data disappoints; Italy 2-year BTP auction goes smooth
Fri, 11 Jan 2013 5:43 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Nikkei225 Index registers its 9th straight weekly gain and 23 month high
- Japanese Cabinet approves 20T in fresh stimulus spending to add 2 percent to domestic GDP and create 600K jobs
- Japan's 2nd largest Current Account deficit will increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to implement even more monetary stimulus
- China Dec CPI hits 7-month high at 2.5% as food price spike
- Bank of Korea leaves 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.75%, as expected and cuts 2013 GDP and inflation outlook (**hints to more easing)
- Moody's cuts Cyprus sovereign rating by another 3 notches to Caa3 (has cut by 9 notches in 10 months)
- Spain Industrial Output declines for the 15th straight month
- UK Nov Industrial and Manufacturing data come in well below market expectations
- Italy 2-year Bond auctions goes smooth; Yields decline with better bid-to-cover ratio
- US Fed's Kocherlakota (hawkish non-voter): US GDP to rise by 2% in 2013, 3% in 2014; monetary policy is too tight at the moment, inflation expected to remain subdued
- Fed's Bullard: New bond buying program makes monetary policy more potent, but monetary policy is not a panacea.

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Nov Industrial Production Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.2%e

- (SE) Sweden Dec PES Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.8%e
- (FR) France Nov Current Account: -2.9B v -2.9B prior
- (ES) Spain Nov Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -7.2% v -4.0%e (15th straight monthly decline); Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -7.3% v 0.6% prior
- (CZ) Czech Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.8% v 0.0%e
- (DK) Denmark Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v -1.4% prior; Industrial Orders M/M: +5.9 v -11.0% prior
- (TR) Turkey Nov Current Account: -$4.5B v -$1.9B prior
- (EU) ECB: 192M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 231.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 233.6B prior
- (CH) Swiss Dec CPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.3%e
- (CH) Swiss Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.1% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.1% prior
- (SE) Sweden Nov Average House Prices (SEK): 2.016M v 1.976M prior
- (NL) Netherlands Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.0%e v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.7%e v -1.7% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: No est v 3.3% prior
- (IN) India Dec Trade Balance: -$17.6B v -$19.2B prior; Imports Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.4% prior; Exports Y/Y: -1.9% v -4.2% prior
- (IT) Italy Q3 housing prices -1.1% q/q, -3.2% y/y - Istat
- (UK) Nov Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -2.4% v -1.9%e
- (UK) Nov Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.3% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -1.3%e

- (PT) Portugal Dec Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- (PT) Portugal Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 3.5B vs. 3.5B indicated in Dec 2.75% 2015 BTP Bonds; Avg Yield 1.85% v 2.50% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.45x v 1.36x prior
- Sold 813M in Jun 2017 CCTeu Floating Rate Note; Avg yield 2.17% v 4.56% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.77v 2.18x prior
- Sold 687M in Oct 2017 CCTeu Floating Rate Note; Avg yield 2.34% v 5.59% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.12v 1.98x prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR305M in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
- FTSE 100 flat at 6,100,
DAX flat at 7,707, CAC-40 -0.50% at 3,686, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 8,609, FTSE MIB -0.50% at 17,358, SMI +0.40% at 7,172, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,466

- European equity indices opened the session broadly higher, following the more than 1.3% gains on Japan's Nikkei (Japan approved stimulus package). Markets have since pared gains, as commodity prices are broadly lower, following higher than expected monthly CPI data out of China .Earlier during the session, the FTSE 100 retested its multi-year high, which was seen on Thursday's session (near 6,118). Banks are trading mixed, as UK financials have outperformed their continental European counterparts, following yesterday's commentary out of ECB President Draghi. In banking sector news, Wells Fargo is due to provide an early look at the quarterly results for US banks, as the firm reports its figures later today.

- Germany movers [Praktiker +5% (broker commentary), Hugo Boss +2% (CFO commentary), SAP +1.5% (comments related to mid-term outlook); Commerzbank -3.5% (rights issue speculation),Sky Deutschland -3.5% (broker commentary), Salzgitter -3% (broker commentary), Wacker Chemie -1.5% (cautious commentary by Norway's REC), Continental -1.3% (broker commentary), BMW -1% (broker commentary), Lufthansa -0.50% (broker commentary)]
- UK movers [International Ferro Metals +8% (furnace update), Moneysupermaket.com +7% (FY guidance), Mecom Group +3% (trading update); Aga Rangemaster -8% (trading update),Tullow Oil -4.5% (trading update, write down), BHP -2.5% (broker downgrade)]
- France movers [Faurecia +4.5% (broker commentary),Cap Gemini +4% (better than expected quarter results from Infosys); Michelin -3.5% (broker commentary), EDF -2% (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- German Econ Min Roesler
: Reiterates that Q4 GDP likely to have contracted; growth to revive as 2013 progresses
- EU Commissioner Rehn commented that Europe must continue reforms but EU nations could get more time to reduce their deficits and to judge deficit reduction in structural terms. He saw some easing of credit conditions but not enough
- France President Hollande: Stability and integrity of Euro zone now assured; Euro austerity measures have caused suffering
- S&P Kraemer: Expects Ireland to remain at investment grade throughout 2013
- China PBoC: Reiterates to maintain prudent monetary policy in 2013 and continue with FX reserve diversification
- (IT) Japan rating agency R&I cuts Italy sovereign rating to A; Removes from monitor
- (ES) Japan rating agency R&I cuts Spain's sovereign rating to BBB; removes from monitor

- German Foreign Min Westerwelle: Cyprus bailout not in sight; country had to significantly improve the transparency of its banking sector
- IAEA's Amano: Not optimistic on upcoming Iran nuclear talks on getting access to a military base suspected of use for atomic-weapons related work

Currencies:
- The USD and JPY currencies consolidated their earlier weakness during the European morning. Both currencies were softer in Asia in follow-thru trading stemming from ECB's Draghi post rate decision press conference and Japan PM Abe continued tough rhetoric on policy. The EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs were now encountering some resistance at psychological levels of 1.33 and 90 respectively. The EUR/USD continued to have difficulty in breeching the 1.33 level, which has plague the pair's upside since mid-Dec.
- The USD/JPY hovered around the 89 handle throughout the session. Japan new Govt did formally announce its long-awaited stimulus plan. Also dealers noted that the recent data that showed its Current Account deficit to be the second highest on record would increase the pressure on the Bank of Japan to implement even more monetary stimulus
- The GBP drifted lower after weaker-than-expected industrial production data. The GBP/USD was off 50pips from its Far East open and was near 1.6115 ahead of the NY morning.

Political/ In the Papers:
- (DE) IFW sees Germany 2012 net borrowing at 22.8B vs. 28.1B planned - German press; Expects Germany to borrow 16.5B in 2013 vs. 17.1B planned
- (CY) Moodys cuts Cyprus govt bond rating to Caa3 from B3 (3-notches); outlook negative; See probability of default at 50%
- (GR) Greece Fin Min: Greece may balance its current account for the first time in decades in 2013; Greek bank deposits have risen by 8.3B since June.
- (PT) Portugal to receive and additional 3-4B from Troika - Jornal de Negocios
-(ES) Foreign investors believed to have purchased a net of 22.5B in Spain's bonds since Aug - US financial press
- (ES) 7233 companies file bankruptcy in Spain in 2012, +35% y/y - PWC study
- (ES) Spain and US to release double taxation agreement - Cinco Dias
- (US) US Fed's Kocherlakota (hawkish non-voter): US GDP to rise by 2% in 2013, 3% in 2014; monetary policy is too tight at the moment, inflation expected to remain subdued; Unemployment will fall only slowly; Sees 7.5% by end of 2013 and 7.0% in 2014; Sees some positive signs in housing, particularly increasing home values; Even 5.5% jobless rate not likely to spark inflation; Fed forecasts hints that unemployment can come down considerably without generating inflation pressures.
- (US) Fed's Bullard: Must continue to be aggressive on monetary policy while being cognizant of risks to inflation; A little disturbed" by Japan FX rate policy; Unemployment will likely decline to 6.5% threshold by the middle of 2014, prompting a rethink of Fed zero rate policy; Fed is not prepared to exit policy now, but it might be time to examine the exit plan this year.
-(US) Fed's George (moderate, FOMC voter): Current policy risks fueling possible poor outcomes; recovery momentum is building; Uneasy about ongoing Fed asset purchases

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU's Almunia speaks at King's College London
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jan 7th (RUB): No est v 7.53T prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jan 4th: $ v $532.0B prior
- 06:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends EPP Leaders' Meeting in Limassol, Cyprus
- 06:00 (EU) European Conservative Leaders hold meeting in Cyprus
- 06:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves
- 06:30 (US) Libor
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Consumer Confidence: No est v 63.8 prior
- 07:00 (PT) Portugal PM Coelho
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$600Me v -C$170M prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Import Price Index M/M: +0.1%e v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: -1.5%e v -1.6% prior
- 08:30 (US) Nov Trade Balance: -$41.3Be v -$42.2B prior

- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Industrial Production M/M: +1.2%e v -0.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.2%e v 3.6% prior
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Economic Outlook in Somerset, NJ
- 10:00 (UK) Dec NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.1% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.75-5.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (US) WASDE
- 12:00 (US) USDA Quarterly
- 13:15 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble speaks on EU integration
- 14:00 (US) Dec Monthly Budget Statement: -$22.5Be v -$20.0B prior

weekend
11-12 JAN (CZ) Czech Republic holds Presidential Elections

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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