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Monday January 14, 2013 - 07:01:42 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day : 14-Jan-2013 -0658 GMT

Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at

Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below

USD-CHF @ 0.9134/37...Bearish, 0.9080 is to be watched
R: 0.9180 / 0.9255-70 /0.9300
S: 0.9080 / 0.9000 / 0.8950

Dollar-Swiss was weak in the second half of last week as the Dollar weakened against most of the currencies. It rose slightly towards 0.9275 which is its trend line resistance on the daily charts from where it collapsed. It now does look weak for a further fall towards 0.9080 which is its support on the monthly charts which if broken it can take it further lower towards 0.9000. It seems to have good momentum on the down side as the ADX is rising well and also it could not gain any ground after a sharp fall on Thursday last week. Our view remains bearish for a further fall, also the fact that Dollar-Index is looking weak for a further dip towards 79.00 in the coming days is making our bias bearish on the pair. Now it would be very interesting to see if it breaks its all important support of 79.00-78.80 or not which would be very crucial for the pair.

Limit Sell Order
Sell USD 10K at 0.9250, SL 0.9320, TP 0.9125
Sell USD 10K at 0.9290, SL 0.9340, TP 0.9210
GBP-USD @ 1.6140/43...Mixed but slight bias for a further rise
R: 1.6180 / 1.6200-45 / 1.6300
S: 1.6080-50 / 1.6000 /

Cable had a mildly positive week as it benefited from the weak dollar in the later part of the week. We had been mentioning that the pair is relatively weak as compared to the other currencies but then it did rise. Having said that the charts are not looking very strong currently as the only thing that is moving the pair seem to be a weaker Dollar-Rather than a stronger Pound. We still prefer a dip towards 1.6080-50 and even 1.6000 but that might not come. With the Dollar expected to weaken further in the coming days there is a good chance for Cable to rise towards 1.6200 above which it has been unable to close on a weekly basis from the past few weeks. We would avoid taking any positions in the pair till the time it gives clearer signal of any particular direction or reaches any significant support. It also seems to be trading in a downward trending triangle on the daily charts since November end with the lower end near 1.6000. We will be watching 1.6000 closely and we will take longs on a bounce from this support.

AUD-USD @ 1.0548/51...Mixed
R: 1.0580 / 1.0620-50 /1.0750
S: 1.0480 / 1.0350 / 1.0150

Aussie also had a mildly positive week as it gained 63 pips. It was looking strong till Friday evening to give a break above trend line on the weekly charts at 1.0530. But then it lost ground in the later part of the day to give a weak close not strong enough to give a confirm break of the weekly resistance. Now the outlook remains mixed for the next week as well and only a very strong move above 1.0580 and 1.0620 levels will confirm further bullishness. We would prefer to wait the break of the resistance on the upside or a complete break down of the pair below its important supports. The longer term forecast also depends on whether 1.0580-620 are broken for a weekly and for a monthly closing which would then make it quite bullish for a further rise towards 1.0750 and 1.0850 levels.


Happy Trading!


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