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Monday January 14, 2013 - 11:03:31 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro maintains steady tone despite weaker Italian and Euro Zone Industrial Production data

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro maintains steady tone despite weaker Italian and Euro Zone Industrial Production data
Mon, 14 Jan 2013 5:32 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China Shanghai Composite surges over 3% in session after CSRC stated it could increase by 10x the level of RQFII (Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) and QFII investment as a means to develop the market
- China sets up new unit (SAFE Co Financing unit) to help diversify FX reserves.
- Japan PM Abe: BOJ to support a non-binding medium-term 2% "inflation target" as part of a joint statement with the govt at its upcoming Jan 22nd decision
- US Corp earnings kick into a higher gear with key financial reporting this week [GS JPM BAC MS]
- India Wholesale Price Index hits an 11-month low at 7.2%
- Euro Zone Nov Industrial Production data registers weakest YoY reading in over three years; Italian IP data comes in below expectations
- Fed kills idea of issuing $1 trillion coin
- Dealers eyeing Fed's Bernanke speech later today at University of Michigan


***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Dec Monthly Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 7.2% v 7.4%e (11-month low)

- (DE) Germany Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: 0.0% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Dec CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e
- (FI) Finland Nov Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.7% prior
- (ES) Spain Nov House transactions Y/Y: -6.1% v +12.8% prior
- (EU) ECB: 151M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 192M prior; 222.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 231.5B prior
- (IT) Italy Nov Industrial Production M/M: -1.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -7.6% v -0.3% prior; Industrial Production wda Y/Y: -7.6% v -6.0%e
- (ES) Spain Banks Dec Net borrowings from ECB: 313.1B v 340.8B (4th straight decline)
- (IT) Italy Nov General Government Debt: 2.021T v 2.015T prior
- (EU) Euro-Zone Nov Industrial Production M/M: -0.3% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.7% v -3.1%e; weakest YoY reading since Nov 2009)

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell new 15-year BTP bond subject to market conditions -

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
-Indices: FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,133,
DAX +0.80% at 7,777, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3,728, IBEX-35 +0.60% at 8,714, FTSE MIB +1% at 17,679, SMI +0.50% at 7,225, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,470

- Equity markets in European are broadly higher, led by gains in Italy's FTSE MIB. The UK's FTSE 100 has hit yet another multi-year high on today's session and the DAX has traded just below a new 2013 and multi-year high. The Greek Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) has hit highs not seen since Aug 2011. European banks are broadly higher, led by gains in the - French banking sector and Commerzbank. Resource related firms are mixed, despite the gains seen in commodity prices. Focal points for markets during the current week include Fed commentary (Bernanke to speak later today), US corporate earnings (to be dominated by banks and industrials) and Q4 GDP data out of China (to be released on Thursday Jan 17th).

- Germany movers [Tom Tailor +4% (2013 outlook), Sky Deutschland +3% (capital raise, reaffirmed targets), MunichRe +1.5% (broker commentary), Fresenius Medical Care +1% (broker commentary) Continental flat (FY12 sales, FY13 guidance); Dialog Semi -4.5% (underperforms overall market)]
- UK movers [Optimal Payments +9.5% (raised FY12 forecasts),Shanks +3% (contract award),Greene King +1.5% (sales update), G4S +1% (broker commentary), Taylor Wimpey flat (trading update); New World Resources -4.5% (trading update), Big Yellow Group -2.5% (Q3 update),Sage Group -1.5% (broker downgrade)]
- France movers [Peugeot +5% (confirmed financing agreement), Cap Gemini +4% (broker commentary),EDF +3.5% (compensation agreement with French government), Saint-Gobain +3% (asset sale), SocGen +3% (broker commentary); Dassault Systems -0.75% (broker commentary), Axa -0.70% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Swatch +3.5% (acquisition),Novartis +0.80% (Phase III data for BEXSERO)]
- Dutch movers [TNT Express -42% (UPS withdrew offer)]
- Italy movers [Generali -0.50% (strategy update)]

Speakers:
- UK PM Cameron
stated that the UK would not join the Euro while he was PM as he was not happy with every aspect of the EU. He added that the UK did need to be part of Europe although there was too much interference and business from Europe
- ECB's Praet stated that the ECB was in 'wait and see' mode; Sees no deflation even in country's with severe recession. There was no real improvement in EMU economic outlook since Dec ECB staff forecasts. He reiterated the central bank majority view that economic risks were on the downside, but the self-reinforcing spiral had been halted. It added that there was a good chance the worst was over in EMU crisis. Addressing Euro zone break-up fears much more important than cutting rates
- Poland Central Bank member Glapinski stated that he supported one more rate cut but that th Dec data would be critical whether there would be another Base Rate cut at the February policy meeting. He added that he saw the Base Rate holding steady between 3.75 to 4.00% range through 2013 after Feb decision
- Czech Central Bank Gov Singer: Weakening of the CZK currency (crown) can be the next monetary step with possible intervention in H1
- Hungary Econ Min Matolcsy: HUF currency (fornit) is under speculative attack
- China Sovereign Wealth Fund (CIC) chief Lou Jiwei expressed confidence that its returns would be over 10% during CNBC interview. He added that the fund needed to distinguish between Western countries
- India PM Economic Adviser Rangarajan: WPI to move towards 7.0% by March

Currencies:
- JPY currency did hit fresh 19-month lows during the Asian session on reports that Japan PM Abe and the BOJ to support a non-binding medium-term 2% "inflation target" as part of a joint statement with the govt at its upcoming Jan 22nd decision. During the European morning the JPY consolidated its trend lows with USD/JPY around 89.35 and EUR/JPY back below the 120 handle to hover around 119.30. Japan Econ Min Amari noted that the yen had come to a good level cautioning that a further sharp drop could harm the country's economy
- The EUR/USD remains steady in the session despite weaker Italian d Euro Zone Industrial Production data. Dealers seen to be set on testing the psychological 1.35 level. The key support remains at the 1.3310 level with some light stops building below.
- EUR/CHF cross hit a 13-month high as it approached the 1.2270 level

Political/ In the Papers:
- The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said China can increase by 10x the level of RQFII (Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) and QFII investment. They also are planning for mutual recognition for funds registered in HK and China.
- Prime Minister Abe and the BOJ agreed to support a x 2% inflation target to be formally announced at the next BOJ meeting on Jan 22nd. No deadline will be set for reaching the 2% target but they believe the target should be achieved over the medium-term and not the long-term
- EU Commission has opened the door of giving Spain more time to meet its budget deficit target; EU has prepared less harsh measures for Spain and a number of countries. - No announcement to be made until February when Q4 GDP data is presented and 2013 growth forecasts are known - Spanish press
- (EU) According to a draft of a plan circulated among eurozone fin mins last year, countries in danger of bank collapses will still have to contribute to future bailout funds to have access to the ESM - FT
- (EU) ECB's Knot: Resolution mechanism does not act an European bailout, but is necessary for the short term; Adjustment process in Southern Europe to take approximately 3 years.
- (FR) France employer's and unions agree on draft deal for labor market reforms - press
- (GR) Greece PM Samaras: No longer in danger of a euro exit but need to stay on course with fiscal reforms - Greek press
- (IT) Berlusconi's centre-right coalition is gaining popularity ahead of Feb elections; Could result in the Left struggling to form a stable majority - Italian press
- The Fed's Evans (FOMC voter in 2013, dovish) spoke over the weekend saying he was hopeful for a deal on the US debt ceiling. Evans sees substantial improvement in the US labor market forecasting a 7.4% unemployment rate by the end of the year and 7.0% by the end of 2014.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (PE) Peru Dec Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.9% prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Nov Leading Indicators: No est v 100.2 prior
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell Bills and Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to Sell T-Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IC) Iceland Dec Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.4% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec M3 Money Supply M/M: 2.3%e v 0.1% prior;
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 6.0-7.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:30 (EU) ECB call for bids in Main 7-day Refi Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces amount to be drain in next 7-Day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond purchases
- 10:00 (PE) Peru Nov Economic Activity Index Y/ Y: 6.5%e v 6.7% prior
- 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Q4 Senior Loan Officer Survey: No est v -15.8 prior; Business Outlook Future Sales: 10.0e v 0.0 prior
- 11:00 (IC) Iceland Dec International Reserves (ISK): No est v 527B prior
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at Lower Saxony State Election Rally: Stadthagen
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 11:55 (US) Fed's Williams speaks in Half Moon Bay, California
- 12:40 (US) Fed's Lockhart to speak on U.S. Economy in Atlanta
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at Lower Saxony State Election Rally: Hildesheim
- 14:30 (EU) ECB member Praet
- 15:30 (NZ) New Zealand Dec Housing Price Index: No est v 3544.4 prior
- 16:00 (US) Fed Gov Bernanke in Ann Arber, MI
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 Business Opinion: No est v 8 prior
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Dec Food Prices M/M: No est v -0.8% prior

 

 

 

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