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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Peripheral bond auctions continue remain 'solid' in early 2013; Fitch fires warning shot on US Debt ceiling debate

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Peripheral bond auctions continue remain 'solid' in early 2013; Fitch fires warning shot on US Debt ceiling debate
Tue, 15 Jan 2013 5:49 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-BoJ cuts econ assessment for 8 of 9 regions for the 2nd straight quarterly cut
-Japan Econ Min: Yen is correcting in-line with fundamentals; excessively weak Yen has negative effects
- Germany 2012 GDP of +0.7% comes in a touch below expectations; Q4 GDP seen -0.5%
- Germany said to cut 2013 GDP growth to 0.4-0.5% from +1.0% prior official view
- Euro Working Group approved the disbursement of 9.2B tranche to Greece, to be ratified by the Eurogroup on Mon Jan 21st
- UK inflation data comes in mixed; CPI YoY reading of 2.7% stays that the highest level seen since last May for a third consecutive month
- Various periphery bill and bond auctions in session (Spain, Greece and Italy) seen as solid; nonetheless periphery yields off recent lows as markets position for Thursday auctions
- Fed Chairman Bernanke: economy still not out the woods; Housing positive factor; Still in relatively fragile economy; Important that congress takes action to raise debt ceiling

Debt Ceiling:
-President Obama: again rejected any negotiations regarding debt ceiling
-Treasury's Geithner: Special debt-limit steps used to stay under debt limit may end by mid-March; Urges Congress to act
-House Speaker Boehner: Debt ceiling cannot be raised without spending cuts
-White House: Warns agencies to prepare for forthcoming budget and spending cut uncertainty
- Fitch: Debt ceiling delay would prompt a formal review of the US sovereign rating and put at risk for downgrade



***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left Key rates unchanged (as expected); Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.25%; Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Overnight Auction-Based Repo unchanged at 5.50%

- (DE) Germany Dec Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.9% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e
- (DE) Germany Dec Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.9% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.1%e
- (FR) France Nov Central Govt Balance: - v -92.5Be
- (TR)) Turkey Oct Unemployment Rate: 9.1% v 9.1% prior
- (DE) Germany 2012 GDP Y/Y: 0.7%% v 0.8%e; Budget to GDP Ratio: +0.1%% v -0.1%e
- (ES) Spain Dec Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1%% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9%e
- (ES) Spain Dec Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e
- (ES) Spain Dec CPI Core M/M: 0.0%% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.3%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Consumer Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2%e
- (CZ) Czech Dec PPI (Industrial) M/M: -0.3% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.6%e
- (CZ) Czech Nov Export Price Index Y/Y: 0.3% v 1.3% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: 1.3 v 2.2% prior
- (DK) Denmark Dec Wholesale Prices M/M: -0.4% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.4% prior
- (FI) Finland Nov Current Account: +200M v -50M prior
- (EU) ECB: 1.05B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 151M prior; 230.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 222.6B prior
- (RU) Russia Dec Light Vehicle & Car Sales Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.0% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Nov Trade Balance: 4.3B v 4.2B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Nov Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.1% prior
- (NO) Norway Trade Balance (NOK): 35.2B v 31.9B prior
- (IT) Italy Dec Final CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e
- (UK) Dec PPI Input M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.4%e
- (UK) Dec PPI Output M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.4%e
- (UK) Dec PPI Output Core M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e

- (UK) Nov ONS House Price Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.6%e
- (UK) Dec CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.6%e
- (UK) Dec RPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.0%e; RPI-X Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.0%e; Retail Price Index: 246.8 v 246.6e

- (ZA) South Africa Nov Gold Production Y/Y: -32.2% v -45.7% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: -4.5% v -6.2%e
- (RU) Russia Nov Trade Balance: $15.4B v $15.1Be; Exports: $45.4B v $45.5Be; Imports: $30.1B v $30.0Be
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Trade Balance seasonally adj: 11.0B v 8.0Be; Trade Balance unadj: 13.7B v 10.0Be


Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened book sale of 15-year syndicated BTP bond; guidance seen +35bps over 4.5% Mar 2026 BTP
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.81Bvs. 4.5-5.5B indicated range in 12-Month and 18-Month Bills (Dec 11th)
- Sold 3.25B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.472% v 2.556% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.21x v 2.46x prior; Max Yield 1.520% v 2.650% prior; Tail: 4.8bps v 9.4bps prior
- Sold 2.51B in 18-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.687% v 2.778% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.71x v 2.70x prior; Max Yield 1.790% v 2.888% prior; Tail: 10.3bps v 11.0bps prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B in 2023, 2026 and 2041 Bonds
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF998M in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield -0.099% v -0.210% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.625B 1.25B in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield 4.07% v 4.11% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.75x v 1.73x prior (Dec 18th)
- (EU) ECB allotted 131.2B vs. 78Be in 7-day Main Refi Operationat fixed 0.75%
- (EU) ECB allotted 10.5B vs. 15.0Be in 1-month Tender at fixed 0.75%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated 3-Months Bills; Avg Yield 5.45% v 5.45% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.73x v 2.29x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 3.17B vs. 3.0-3.5B indicated range in 3-month and 12 Bills
- Sold 1.65B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.012% v -0.006% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.34x v 2.65x prior
- Sold 1.521B in 12-month Bills; Avg yield 0..11% v -0.0039% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.06x v 2.84x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
-Indices: FTSE 100 flat at 6,109,
DAX -0.20% at 7,718, CAC-40 +0.10% at 3,710, IBEX-35 -0.50% at 8,593, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 17,437, SMI +0.60% at 7,247, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,462.50

- European equity markets are currently mixed, following the lower open. Switzerland's SMI and the Italian FTSE MIB indices have has outperformed, while the Spanish IBEX has lagged. Banks are currently mixed. French financials have underperformed following the announced changes to certain domestic savings rates. Outperformers include Intesa and Swiss banks. Resources related firms are mostly higher, supported by the gains in platinum and oil prices.

- Germany movers [Lufthansa -2% (share placement), RWE -2% (broker commentary), E.ON -1% (asset sale), Fraport -0.60% (Dec traffic), K+S -0.50% (broker commentary); Hochtief +3% (broker commentary), Infineon +2.2% (broker commentary), Siemens +0.30% (reaffirmed FY13 guidance),Allianz flat (reaffirmed FY op profit guidance)]
- UK movers [Lavendon +7% (FY guidance),Lonmin +4% (planned production cuts by Anglo Platinum),Imagination Technologies +4% (extended licensing agreement),Burberry +3.5% (Q3 sales), Ocado +3% (sales update),Halfords +1.5% (sales update, guidance), Rio Tinto +1% (Q4 production update), WPP +1% (CEO comments on Q4), Michael Page +0.50% (trading update); ARM Holdings -4% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [EDF +2.5% (follow-through buying); BNP -1.4% (changes to Livret savings rates),Lagardere -1.5% (broker commentary), Air Liquide -0.50% (broker commentary]
- Italy movers [Ferragamo +2.9% (planned price increases),Snam Rete +2.5% (Eni exchangeable bond sale)]
- Spain movers [Santander -2.5% (ex-dividend)]
- Switzerland movers [Geberit +3% (FY sales), Lindt +2% (FY sales)]
- Sweden movers [H&M +3.5% (Dec sales]

Speakers:
- Germany said to cut its 2013 GDP forecast to 0.5% from 1.0% prior
view while unemployment was seen little changed in 2013 (**Note: In Nov, Germany's Labor Office said it saw 2013 unemployment at 2.9M under a 1% growth scenario)
- One German Econ Ministry did confirm cut in 2013 GDP growth forecast to +0.4% from +1.0% prior view and saw 2014 GDP growth at +1.6%
- France Fin Min Moscovci: confirms to lower Livret A saving scheme to 1.75% from 2.25%
- France Budget Min Cahuzac: Spending remains under control; deficit continues to remain close to forecast - French press
- EU's Barroso: Seeks final ECB oversight agreement in weeks not months
- Spain FROB might delay sale of Catalua Banc indefinitely if bids are too low. Govt priority was to get a good price and has until 2017 to sell the entity
- Cyprus President Christofias stated that the country would not leave the Euro as it had borrowed enough on domestic market to meet financial obligations in the coming months
- Fitch commented that AAA sovereign ratings remained under pressure in 2013 and beyond as Euro area structural solutions were still elusive. Other risk factors included hard landing for China and US fiscal policy. Includes US, UK and France
- Various BOE members testified to the UK parliament; BOE's Haldane noted that solving the 'too big to fail' issue was not enough to ensure enough UK banking competition
- Fitch: Debt ceiling delay would prompt a formal review of the US sovereign rating
- Fitch analyst Riley reiterated that the ECB's OMT bond buying program had given euro zone sovereigns breathing room.
- Eurozone needs to maintain deficit reduction, reform pace. He saw risk of a hard landing in China (**Note: not base scenario of Fitch) and did not see significant risk of EMU breakup
- German Debt chief Daube to step down from position today (**Note: Prior reports suggested that Diemer would succeed Daube by April 1st.)
- Japan minutes from Jan 9th Economic & Fiscal Council saw BoJ Gov Shirakawa note that fiscal consolidation wass important and sought to discuss with Govt how to strengthen ties; Econ Min Amari expected BOJ to implement aggressive easing under clear price target; PM Abe: BOJ's independence was important when fighting deflation. He noted that without beating deflation Japan could not increase tax revenues and reform finances
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Osaka Branch Head: Likely to take a long time for Yen's fall to start affecting volume of exports. Yen fall will improve corp profits and business sentiment after some time.
- Japan to sell 7.8T more bonds than in FY12 to fund construction and pension
- Japan Fin Min Aso noted that the priority was to escape recession. He declined to comment on bond yields but that the FY13 budget to be compiled in line with medium-term fiscal reconstruction plans
- China Premier Wen Jiabao: China to set up property taxes and would implement a value added tax reform in the near term. China to gradually tax property trading and ownership
- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): 2013 foreign direct investment (FDI) to be similar to 2012 levels

Currencies:
- The EUR/USD continued to hold above the key hourly support of 1.3310. The peripheral bond auctions continued to post solid results in early 2013 with Spain and Greece selling bills today and Italy's 15-year bond syndicated said to have an order book over 6.0B. The yield on both the Spanish and Italian 10-year govt bonds reverse its initial move higher to enter the NY morning around 1bps lower at 4.99% and 4.17% respectively.
- The JPY continued to retrace after its 8+ week of weakness. Dealers were latching onto comments made on Monday from the Japanese Econ Min Amari who stated that he yen had come to a good level (was near 90 against the USD and 120 against the Euro) and that further sharp drop in the yen could harm the country's economy
- Mixed UK inflation data kept the GBP below the 1.61 handle in the session

Political/ In the Papers:
- (EU) Unnamed senior German Lawmaker: Not all member states absolutely must remain in the eurozone; risks are manageable even if Greece cannot execute on its reforms; There are no plans to introduce a new austerity program in Germany to balance the budget as it would be unnecessary to do so
- (FI) S&P revises Finland outlook to Stable from Negative; affirms AAA rating
- (LU) S&P revises Luxembourg outlook to Stable from Negative
- (NL) S&P affirms Netherlands sovereign rating at AAA, outlook negative
- (DE) Recent FT report indicating Econ Min Roesler would resign as the party leader of FDP if it does not make it into govt at the Lower Saxony elections this coming Sunday
- (IT) Italy PM Monti: Many social groups are suffering due to the economic slowdown, but would be even worse if Italy defaulted; Italy would be worse off now if it had kept the Lira as its currency. - press interview
- (IT) Milan court denies former PM Berlusconi request to delay sex trial till after Italy elections- financial press
- (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Pace of economic growth since the beginning of the recovery has not been as strong as normally needed to improve the labor market, yet we have seen some improvement in the jobs market; Things are moving in the right direction though not as fast as we'd like; "I'm cautiously optimistic."
- (US) Fed's Lockhart: Asset purchases must be flexible, no immediate threats seen to financial stability from the monetary policy; Cannot speculate on timing for stoppage or reduction in the QE program; 2013 will be a pivotal year for the US economy. - comments to reporters
- (US) Fed's Williams: Confident the monetary policy tools will remain effective, have flexibility to adjust the programs up or down - comments to reporters; Expecting rates to rise well before the 2H of 2015 when unemployment may reach 6.5%; QE will probably be necessary into 2H of 2013
- (US) Treasury: Special debt-limit measures may expire by mid Feb-March - financial press
- (US) More House Republicans are said to be prepared to support a government shutdown or default in debt ceiling standoff with President Obama - Politico

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) World Bank releases Global Economic Prospects Report
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Q3 GDP No est v +0.2% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov Retail Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 8.3%e v 9.1% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 14.5% prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell New Zero 2014 Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt bond purchases; To drain 208.5B
- 07:00 (IC) Iceland Dec Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.4% prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Rosengren speaks on economic outlook in RI
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec CPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Empire Manufacturing: 0.0e v -8.1 prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Advance Retail Sales: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.4%e v 0.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Producer Price Index M/M: -0.1%e v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 08:50 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on policy in Mn
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Dec YTD Budget Level (PLN): No est v -30.4B prior; Budget Performance YTD: No est v 86.9% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Nov Trade Balance: No est v 177.9M prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Nov Business Inventories: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (UK) DMO to announce size of 4% 2022 Gilt auction for Jan 22nd
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.75-1.00B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 11:30 (IS) Israel Dec Consumer Prices M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Economic Outlook in Rochester, NY
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.0% prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 10.6% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- (EG) Egypt resumes Loan Negotiations with the IMF
- (EG) Egypt Court Hears Case on Constitution Committee Legitimacy

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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