Wednesday January 16, 2013 - 04:01:27 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 16-Jan-2013 -0358 GMT
Dow Jones (13534.89, +0.20%) continues to crawl up. It has series of resistances from 13550-750. The mood does not seem to be bearish and the index is not giving up. Only some negative news can drag the markets down.
A-Pac is trading mixed with Australia (4757.60, +0.31%), Hang Seng (23340.65, -0.17%) and Taiwan (7734.23, -0.40%).
Shanghai (2322.84, -0.12%) seems to have taken resistance near 2325-50 levels. It can now see a corrective fall towards 2250 which should be healthy for the index.
Nikkei (10712, -1.54%) has also dipped after it took resistance near 11000 levels yesterday. Intermediate support is seen near 10600 which may not hold well and a further corrective fall to 10300 looks likely now.
Nifty (6056.60, +0.54%) continued its rise and is targeting 6250+ levels in the coming days/weeks.
Oil has dipped a bit and can slip if it breaks immediate support levels, Gold and Silver have risen in their short term ranges while Copper looks weak.
Nymex Crude (93.56, +0.30%) is not breaking above 95.00 and has dipped slightly from there. While above 93-92 levels the downside is safe but I would be worried if these levels break.
Brent (110.70, +0.36%) has also dipped a bit. In the very near term it is trading in the 113-10 range. We will have to wait and watch before a break is seen in either direction. I am getting slightly worried about oil not breaking on the upside and the break of support if seen will make the mood bearish.
Gold (1683.20, -0.04%) has risen in its 1700-1625 range. The picture seems to have turned from bearish to ranged. A move above 1700 can make it bullish.
Silver (31.38, -0.46%) rose inside its 29.75-31.75 range and can see a further rise towards 34.00 in the coming days.
Copper (3.64, +0.16%) dipped yesterday but found support near 3.60 to bounce just a bit, but the chances of 3.60 breaking for a fall towards 3.50 remain
Market remains mixed and diversed. The Euro and the Swiss has weakened after the comments from the Euro Zone Finance Ministers' Chairman that the Euro is "dangerously high". Yen has strengthened a bit. Aussie and the Pound are ranged but looks relatively much stronger against the Dollar as compared to the others. The Dollar Index (79.77) has risen well from near its 200-Week-MA Support (currently at 79.30) and can rise to 80.00-10 again if it stays above 79.60.
The Euro (1.3286) has come off below 1.3300 and can dip futher to 1.3200-180. But there is no threat of a reversal and the overall uptrend can resume from this 1.3200-180 region. Dollar-Yen (88.28) has dipped towards 88.00 as expected and has very good Support in 88.00-87.70 from where a rise can be seen again. The Euro-Yen Cross (117.32) has come down sharply following the fall in the Euro and the Dollar-Yen and it can fall further to 116-115 even.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9315) has risen sharply but has important Resistance near current levels at 0.9330 which if holds can trigger a pull back to 0.9200 and even 0.9100 in the coming days. The Pound (1.6064) is holding above 1.6000 and is retaining its 1.6000-6300 sideways range. The bias is bullish within this range. Aussie (1.0563) is also mixed and ranged between 1.0500 and 1.0600. A strong break above 1.0600 will be very bullish.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2248) remains flat and ranged between 1.2200 and 1.2300. Dollar-Rupee (54.62) has back well from 54.33 yesterday and can be ranged between 54.30-54.80 for some time.
The Spanish 10Yr yield (5.02%, down 1bps) remains above 5% and is keeping alive the chances of a rise to 5,15%-5.20%. Similarly the Spain-German 10Yr Yield spread has risen further by 3bps and could head towards 3.75% as mentioned yesterday. As such, the Euro could be pressured on the downside for a while and can see further dip.
The US 10Yr yield has come down 3bps to 1.82% and can fall to 1.70%-1.65% if it dips below 1.80%.
0:00 GMT or 16:30 IST EU CPI (YoY)
...Expected 2.2% ...Previous 2.2%
12:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Core CPI (MoM)
...Expected 0.2% ...Previous 0.1%
13:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Expected $ 14.8 Bln ...Previous $ 1.3 Bln
13:15 GMT or 19:45 IST US Industrial Production
...Expected 0.2% ...Previous 1.04%
13:15 GMT or 19:45 IST US Capacity Utilization
...Expected 78.6% ...Previous 78.4%
EU Trade Bal
...Actual 11.0 Bln ...Previous 7.4 Bln
UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 2.70% ...Previous 2.70%
US PPI ex Food & Energy (YoY)
...Actual 2.00% ...Previous 2.17%
US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
...Actual 0.10% ...Previous 0.10%
US Retail Sales
...Actual 0.4% ...Previous 0.3%
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