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Wednesday January 16, 2013 - 11:44:16 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk aversion continues to find footing in the session

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk aversion continues to find footing in the session
Wed, 16 Jan 2013 5:52 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Niikei225 Index registers biggest 1-day percentage decline since May 2012 following the JPY's retracement; China and Hong Kong move off worst levels into their close
- Japan Nov Machine orders rise with as the JPY started to weaken
- World Bank cuts 2013 and 2014 global GDP forecasts
- China 2012 FDI registers its first annual decline in 3 years
- Outgoing Eurogroup President Juncker (Luxembourg PM): EUR exchange rate is dangerously high
- Spain PM Rajoy: should be more stimulus for Euro Zone creditor nations; Reiterates that there is no request for aid from ECB
- Fitch: Chances for Britain to lose its AAA rating are increasing
-(US) Fed's Rosengren (moderate, FOMC voter in 2013): Reiterates decline in unemployment to 7.25% would constitute "substantial improvement," would merit debate about halting asset purchases
- Japan grounds entire Dreamiliner fleet thru Thursday
- EU 27 Dec New Car registrations decline by largest amount in 2 years
- Italy registers 2012 trade surplus of 8.0B; first such surplus since 2002
- Germany sells new 10-year Bund with yield at a 3-month high


***Economic Data***
- (EU) Dec EU27 New Car Registrations: -16.3 v -10.3% prior, (largest decline in 2 years)
- (HU) Hungary Nov Final Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prelim; Y/Y: -6.9% v -6.9% prelim
- (TR) Turkey Dec Consumer Confidence: 89.0 v 89.2 prior
- (CH) Swiss Nov Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.4%e
- (AT) Austria Dec Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8% prior
- (IT) Italy Nov Total Trade Balance: 2.4B v 2.7Be; Trade Balance EU: 508M v 949M prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Kagiso PMI: 47.3 v 50.2e
- (NO) Q4 Existing Homes Q/Q: -0.7%% v +0.6% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.2%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (BR) Brazil Nov Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.3%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $60M in 7-Day USD Tender at fixed 0.65% vs. $60M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK10B vs. SEK10B indicated in 3-month Bills; Yield: 0.8811%
- (DE) Germany sold 4.007B in new 1.5% 2023 Bund; Avg Yield 1.56% v 1.40% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.7x v 1.5x prior
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold total 2.5B vs. 2.5B indicated in 3-month, 12-month and 18-month Bills
- Sold 300M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.667% v 1.936% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.8x v 5.1x prior
- Sold 1.2B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.609% v 2.101% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 2.5x prior
- Sold 1.0B in 18-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.963% v 2.990% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.7x v 1.9x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,086,
DAX -0.30% at 7,656, CAC-40 -0.40% at 3,682, IBEX-35 -0.80% at 8,534, FTSE MIB -1.3% at 17,245, SMI +0.10% at 7,276, S&P 500 Futures -0.25% at 1,461

- European equity markets have tracked the declines seen in the Japanese equity markets, ahead of earnings from US banks (including JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs). Today's weakness has been led by Italy's FTSE MIB and Spain's IBEX-35, amid the slight rise in peripheral bond yields. In terms of the banking sector, French banks have underperformed for the second straight session, following the recently announced changes to certain domestic saving rates. Resource related firms are broadly lower, tracking the declines in commodity prices.

- Germany movers [Gerresheimer -2.5% (broker commentary); Metro +1.5% (Q4 sales, reaffirmed outlook),Fresenius SE +1% (broker commentary),Lanxess +0.60% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- UK movers [French Connection -9.5%(sales update),Taylor Wimpey -4% (broker commentary), Thorntons -4% (sales update), Imperial Tobacco -3.5% (ex-dividend),JD Wetherspoon -2.8% (sales update), Bumi PLC -2.5% (concerns related to Bakrie proposal), Arm Holdings -1.5% (broker commentary), ITV -1.5% (broker commentary), Diageo -0.50% (broker commentary); Experian +0.50% (Q4 update)]
- France movers [Faurecia -7.5% (FY results, debt levels),Alcatel-Lucent +1% (contract award)]
- Norway movers [Marine Harvest -2% (Q4 update)]
- Dutch movers [Pharming -10% (convertible bond offering), SNS Reaal (EU ruling related to bank bad]
- Switzerland movers [Dufry -2.5% (share sale speculation),Barry Callebaut -1.6% (Q1 sales update)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Praet
(Belgium): ECB has no exchange rate target
- ECB's Nowotny commented at the Euromoney conference that there was no crisis of the Euro currency but only of some members. He did add that the crisis was not over and could still see decline of EMU economy in 2013. He did see a turning point in Q1 of 2013 with clear revival of economic growth in 2014.
- ECB Nowotny later spoke on CNBC and stated that he did not see long term upward trend in Euro exchange rate trend but that Euro exchange rate was not a matter of major concern. He saw neither inflation nor deflation at this time. 2013 to be slightly negative Euro Zone growth but positive for Germany. Banks repaying LTRO funds was a positive signal as banks were less dependent on ECB funding
- Sweden Central Banker (Riksbank) Svensson (dove) reiterated that its monetary policy was too tight and that the cost of tight policy on unemployment was high. The policy had also caused inflation to undershoot target
- EU's Barroso: Reiterates hope to have approval for single supervisor in coming weeks
- Russia PM Medvedev: Russia cannot continue to delay State asset sales
- Ireland PM Kenny: Reiterates country is determined to exit troika bailout program by end of 2013
- EU/IMF/ECB troika to visit Madrid in late January to check conditions of its banking sector bailout
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) First Dep Chairman Ulyukayev commented that monetary easing would be counterproductive. He saw Russia GDP growth close to potential sees GDP at 3.5% and that inflation to hit target of 5-6% from Q2. No decision on when to widen Ruble band and could change interest rates at its Feb meeting
- S&P's Kraemer: Euro zone credit quality may be bottoming, 2013 may be possible turning point
- Japan Chief Cabinet Secy Suga commented that the Govt was not deliberately making statements on the demerits of a weaker JPY currency and that excessive JPY currency strength was being corrected. Markets were over-reacting to Ishiba comments (**refers to weaker JPY was concerning for some industries and companies)
- IEA's Birol: Cut in production by Saudi Arabia was due to demand outlook

Currencies:
- Risk aversion found a footing in the session. The stronger JPY currency over the last 48 hours finally put a dent in the Nikkei225 Index rally. The Japanese equity market registered its largest one-day percentage decline since May 2012 as the JPY strengthened from 29-month lows. The world bank also cuts its global GDP growth forecast for both 2013 and 2014 period.
- The EUR/USD had trouble regaining any foothold above the 1.33 handle after Eurogroup head Juncker warned over an excessively high EUR FX rate on Tuesday. The pair did manage to retest the pivotal 1.3310 area as ECB Nowotny says Euro exchange rate was not a matter of major concern (refutes Juncker) but added he did not see long term upward trend in Euro exchange rate trend
- GBP tests below the 1.60 handle for 5-week lows as the currency appeared to be pressured by a poor economic outlook in the UK and cautious remarks from rating agencies on its AAA rating

Political/ In the Papers:
- (AT) Austria Chancellor Faymann: Can't say crisis is over given the level of youth unemployment
- (EU) Since the beginning of Jan, banks in Spain, Italy and Portugal have raised over $13B in the capital markets - FT; There was virtually zero issuance by peripheral banks during the same time period in 2012.
-(DE) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard believes that if Bundesbank seeks to repatriate some of its gold this could be a sign that trust among central banks is breaking down
-(CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): May still face severe situation in exports in 2013; Plans measures to increase imports in 2013; hopes trades in 2013 to keep pace with GDP
- (JP) Japan govt plans to present potential BoJ successors on Friday, 15th Feb
-(JP) BOJ set to commit to a 2% inflation target, as speculated - Japan press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the SELIC Target unchanged at 7.25%
- (IS) Israel Q3 Final GDP Annualized: No est v 2.8% prelim
- (RU) Russia to sell RUB25B in 10-year OFZ bonds; Yield guidance seen between 6.70-6.75%
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Econ Ministry annual economic report
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland PM Kenny
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Nov Trade Balance (first estimate): No est v 3.3B prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.6%e v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.0% prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 11th: No est v 11.7% prior
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on policy in MN
- 08:00 (DE) German Parliament hearing on high frequency trading
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec Core Inflation M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) Minutes
- 08:30 (US) Dec Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.9% prior

- 08:30 (US) Dec CPI NSA: 229.726e v 230.221 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 231.416e v 231.254 prior
- 09:00 (GR) IMF tentative date for Greece review
- 09:00 (FI) Finland PM Katainen with EU President Van Rompuy
- 09:00 (US) Nov Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$56.7B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: $25.0Be v $1.3B prior
- 09:15 (US) Dec Industrial Production: 0.3%e v 1.1% prior; Capacity Utilization: 78.5%e v 78.4% prior; Manufacturing Production: 0.6%e v 1.1% prior

- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flow
- 10:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on policy
- 10:00 (US) Jan NAHB Housing Market: 48e v 47 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) House Democrats press conference on Federal debt ceiling
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (DE) ECB's Asmussen speaks to students at Hohenhelm University in Stuttgart
- 13:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at Lower Saxony Election Rally in Osnabrueck
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Fisher on banking
- 14:00 (US) Federal Reserve releases Beige Book
- 14:30 (IT) Italian PM Monti
- 16:30 (AU) Australia Dec Employment Change: 4.5Ke v 13.9K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.4%e v 5.2% prior
- (IA) IAEA completes agreement to access Iran nuclear facilities

 

 

 

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Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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