Thursday January 17, 2013 - 03:53:24 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 17-Jan-2013 -0350 GMT
Dow Jones (13511.23, -0.17%) was flat near its 13550-750 resistance region. Only a firm break on the upside will give further strength to the markets, but the good thing is that the index is not giving up near crucial resistances as yet. US industrial production was up at 0.31% against expected of 0.20% (MoM).
A-Pac is mostly in the green with Australia (4806.60, -0.87%), Hang Seng (23384.92, +0.12%) and Taiwan (7743, +0.56%) with no major cues from the US.
Shanghai (2295, -0.63%) is down as expected, a further dip towards 2250 is likely now.
Nikkei (10620, +0.19%) has given a slight bounce from its 10600 support but a break of this for a dip towards 10300 cannot be ruled out yet.
Nifty (6001.85, -0.90%) has wrong footed us twice now. It has some support near 5950 which if broken can then see further dip towards 5925-5875.
Nymex is in a tight range but Brent is looking slightly weak as it stays below its resistances. Gold and Silver look ranged in the near/medium term while Copper can dip further.
Nymex Crude (94.08, -0.17%) continues to trade in a tight 95-93 range as it is not able to break on either direction. A strong break of 95 is required for a rise towards 103.00.
Brent (109.64, -0.04%) is looking weaker than Nymex which also indicates that Nymex might not break on the upside. Oil is giving a mixed picture, we need to wait and watch. Break of 109-08 in Brent will be bearish for a fall towards 99.00.
Gold (1679.40, -0.23%) is flat in its 1700-1625 range. We need to see if it breaks/holds 1700, which will decide if it rises further or has some consolidation/fall remaining.
Silver (31.42, -0.39%) is near the upper end of the 29.75-31.75 trading range. A break above 31.75 will push it higher towards 34.00 in the coming days.
Copper (3.61, +0.28%) has dipped slightly yesterday but is holding on to its intermediate support at 3.60. A further fall towards 3.50 looks possible now.
Risky assets remain lower but are not gaining downside momentum reflecting that the overall sentiment is to see a weaker dollar. Although there are chances to see slight dip in the coming days, we expect the risky assets to rebound after this slight dip in the coming days/weeks. The Dollar-Index (79.80) remains higher but has good Resistance in 80.00-10 region which can restrict the upside.
The Euro (1.3300) is ranged between 1.3250 and 1.3330. The downside could be capped to 1.3200-180 and the overall bullish outlook remains intact for a rise to 1.3500-600. A rise from current levels itself cannot be ruled out. Dollar-Yen (88.48) has risen back from its 88.00-87.70 Support region as expected and can rise to 89.00-50 and even higher now ahead of the BOJ Meeting next week (22-Jan-13). The Euro-Yen Cross (117.68) has bounced back from its low of 116.47 but will need a strong break above 118 to rise higher. While below 118, a fall to 116-115 cannot be ruled out.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9313) is holding higher but will need a strong break above 0.9330 to rise further. Else a fall back to 0.9250-00 is possible. Cable (1.5997) has broken below 1.6000 and can dip further to 1.5950-5900 after which a fresh rise back to 1.6000-6100 levels is possible. Aussie (1.0528) has come off sharply within its 1.0500-600 range after the weak unemployment data release today. A break below 1.0500 can take it down to 1.0450-400.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2240) is trading flat in a narrow range of 1.2215-75 over the last few day. Dollar-Rupee (54.69/70) is ranged between 54.30 and 54.90
The Spanish 10Yr yield (5.03%) stays flat above 5% there by leaving the immediate outlook to be mixed/unclear. 50-50 chances for it to go up to 5.15%-5.20% or come down to 4.80% from current levels. We will have to wait and see.
The US 10Yr Treasury yield (1.82%, -3 bps) is coming down over the last ten days and can fall to 1.70%-1.65% if it dips below 1.80%.
0:30 GMT or 7:00 IST Australia Labour Force
...Expected 4.6 K ...Previous 13.9 K
12:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Housing Starts
...Expected 0.890 Mln ...Previous 0.861 Mln
14:00 GMT or 20:30 IST US Philifed Index
...Expected 7.1 ...Previous 8.1
EU CPI (YoY)
...Actual 2.2% ...Previous 2.2%
US Core CPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.1% ...Previous 0.1%
US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Actual $ 52.3 Bln ...Previous $ 1.3 Bln
US Industrial Production
...Actual 0.31% ...Previous 1.03%
US Capacity Utilization
...Actual 78.8% ...Previous 78.7%
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."