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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Better US Data Aids Risk Appetite

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Better US Data Aids Risk Appetite
Thu, 17 Jan 2013 11:21 AM EST


***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Dec CPI M/M: +0.1 v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.8% prior
- (IE) Ireland Dec CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6% prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jan 11th: $526.4B v $537.4B prior
- (BR) Brazil Nov CNI Capacity Utilization: 81.4% v 81.1%e
- (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 335K v 368Ke; Continuing Claims: 3.214M v 3.150Me
- (US) Dec Housing Starts: 954K v 890Ke; Building Permits: 903K v 905Ke
- (CA) Canada Nov Int'l Securities Transactions: C$5.6B v C$10Be
- (US) Jan Philadelphia Fed: 6.0e v 8.1 prior
- (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories: -148 bcf v -135 to -140 bcf expected range

- US equity indices have seen modest gains this morning from the premarket through mid morning, breaking two consecutive sessions of lower open/higher close sessions. A handful of good US economic data is sending equities higher, helping investors look past the poor quarterly reports from Citi and BoA. The DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq are all up about 0.4% as of writing. Note that a big round of China December data is on tap later today.

- The most recent US economic data has been very good. Yesterday's beige book report was decent and reported that the economy expanded modestly in the final month of 2012. The initial jobless claims fell to levels last seen in January of 2008. The December housing starts were much better than expected, with huge gains seen in multi-family construction.

- USD/JPY reversed course overnight and the yen has given up most of its recent gains against the dollar as of writing. Japanese officials were out in full force overnight to reverse their recent verbal missteps. USD/JPY is back at 29-month highs above 89.55 and EUR/JPY is holding just below the 120 handle. Both of these areas present psychological resistance and should provide headwinds in further yen weakening. EUR/USD stayed above 1.3350 aided by the good Spanish auction and the recent IMF approval of funds for Greece.

- Citigroup had a tough Q4. Net income rose slightly y/y, however EPS was well below expectations after taking into account huge legal costs and a corporate restructuring charges. In addition, negative DVA thanks to improving credit spreads took its toll as well. Shares of C are down 2.5%.

- Bank of America is in the red along with Citi, with shares of BAC down 3.0%. BoA was weighed down by the recently announced $5B in MBS repurchase charges. However, there were a few bright spots in the report, with mortgage loan volumes up 42% y/y and more progress seen in cutting non-performing loans.

- The FAA and the Japanese and European air safety regulators have grounded Boeing's 787 Dreamliner fleet. In addition, Qatar Airways has also grounded its planes until further notice. Operators will have to prove that the new plane's battery systems are safe before the planes fly again. Shares of BA gave up a little more ground in the premarket but are basically flat on the session as of mid morning.

- Investors like CBS's initiative to shake up its outdoor advertising segment. The US side of the business will be converted into a REIT while the Europe and Asia units will be spun off. Shares of CBS are up more than 10%.

- Multi-level marketing firms Nu Skin and Herbalife both offered preliminary looks at their Q4. NUS's guidance was much better than expected, while Herbalife's was less impressive. NUS is up 10% while HLF is flat on the session.

- Williams-Sonoma earned itself multiple analyst downgrades after reaffirming its FY12 outlook yesterday afternoon. Analysts were hoping for more, and shares of WSM are down more than 5%.

- Shares of NLS are up more than 14% after offering good preliminary Q4 guidance.

***Looking Ahead***
- (AR) Argentina Jan Consumer Confidence: No est v 46.43 prior
- (US) Fed's Fisher speaks on banks in Washington
- 12:05 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks at summit
- 13:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel attends Lower Saxony Election Rally in Oldenburg
- 14:00 (DE) German Bundesbank member Dombert
- 16:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Nominal Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Nov Trade Balance: $137.0Be v $22.4M prior; Imports: No est v $5.2B prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Q4 Real GDP Q/Q: 2.2%e v 2.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.8%e v 7.4% prior; Real GDP YTD Y/Y: 7.7%e v 7.7% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 10.2%e v 10.1% prior; Industrial Production YTD Y/Y: 10.0%e v 10.0% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Dec YTD Fixed Urban Assets Y/Y: No est v 20.7% prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 15.1%e v 14.9% prior; Retail Sales YTD Y/Y: 14.3%e v 14.2% prior
- 23:30 (JP) Japan Nov Final Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -5.8% prior; Capacity Utilization M/M: No est v 1.6% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
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