Monday January 21, 2013 - 03:36:22 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 21-Jan-2013 -0333 GMT
Dow Jones (13649.70, +0.39%) has moved up further towards its 13700 resistance which will now be a crucial level to watch. We need to see if this resistance breaks or holds. Earning or the Debt ceiling (Mid Feb-Early March) might well be the triggers. Till then the index might also remains ranged. Markets remains shut today on account of Martin Lutherís Birthday.
A-Pac is trading mixed with Australia (4802.50, +0.16%), Hang Seng (23613, +0.05%) and Taiwan (7713.72, +0.25%).
Shanghai (2319.51, +0.11%) is marginally in the green but remains below its important 2325-50 level which needs to be broken to see a further rise 2450-2500. A consolidation at current levels for some time is possible before we see an upside break of 2325-50.
Nikkei (10831.60, -0.75%) is slightly lower and currently near its intermediate support of 10800. A further dip to 10300 cannot be ruled out on a break of this support. BOJ is scheduled for tomorrow and the expectations are for further monitory easing and an inflationary target of 2%, current target is 1%.
Nifty (6064.40, +0.42%) moved further up as the OMCís rocketed further up on partial Diesel Deregulation. RILís better than expected earning which came in after the market hours on Friday can boost the sentiment on the D-Street today. A strong break above 6075-100 levels will push it towards 6250+ levels.
Nymex continues to look strong but Brent has not seen a break out yet. Gold remains ranged, Silver and Copper look good to rise further.
Nymex Crude (95.26, -0.31%) has dipped slightly but continues to look strong for a further rise towards 103.00 in the coming days.
Brent (111.65, 0.21%) is also slightly lower but has not given a strong break like Nymex. A break of 113.00 is highly desirable for a further rise towards 116-118 and higher.
Gold (1689.70, +0.16%) continues to trade in its 1700-1625 range. We will have to see if 1700 breaks which will be bullish for a rise to 1800.
Silver (31.99, +0.20%) continues to look strong and can see further rise towards 33.50-34.00 levels in the coming days.
Copper (3.67, -0.24%) is also looking good for a further rise to 3.75 levels. We need to see if 3.75 breaks which will be very good in the medium to long term.
Market continues remain mixed. Euro and the Aussie are ranged with a slight bearish bias for the near term while the Yen, Pound and the Swiss are looking weak. The Dollar-Index (80.07) is ranged and is now in the middle of its 79.00-80.70 sideways range. A rise to the upper end of this range is possible if the immediate 80.10-15 Resistance region is broken.
The Euro (1.3323) is continuing to get Resistance at 1.3400 and is ranged between 1.3250 and 1.3400. While below 1.3400, a test of 1.3200-3100 is possible before we see a rise to 1.3500-600. Dollar-Yen (89.77) remains strong and the market will be watching for the stimulus announcement from the BOJ tomorrow. 91-92 looks likely to be tested ahead of the BOJ and there can be a pull back from 92 levels. The Euro-Yen Cross (119.57) can rise to 121.50-70 on a strong rise past 120. But the chances of seeing 118-117 on the downside first before a rise cannot be ruled out.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9340) is holding well above 0.9300 and can rise further to test 0.9400-50 on the upside which is an important Resistance region. The Pound (1.5869) has broken its 1.6000-6300 range on the downside last week and fall further to 1.5800-700 while below 1.6000. Aussie (1.0517) is ranged between 1.0500-600 with a slight bearish bias to test 1.0450-00 on the downside while below 1.0550.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2277) remains sideways between 1.2200-2300. Dollar-Rupee (53.71/72) has broken below 54 last week and can come down further to 53.50-30 while below 54 now.
The Spanish 10Yr yield has come down to 5bps to 5.08%. Resistance is there at 5.15% and while it holds, there are good chances for the yield to come down below 5% towards 4.80% in the coming days. The Spain-German Yield spread remains higher at 3.52% and can rise further to 3.75%.
The US 10Yr yield has turned up from last week's low of 1.82% and is keeping the chances of seeing a rise to 2.20%-2.22%.
No major data release today.
No major data release on Friday.
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