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Wednesday January 23, 2013 - 03:40:33 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 23-Jan-2013 -0337 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Dow Jones (13712, +0.46%) climbed further up breaking through its 13700 resistance. On the weekly line chart though the exact resistance is a little higher near 13725-50 but the index does look comfortable for a further rise towards 14000 in the near term. Existing Home sale numbers came lower at 4.94Mln as against the expectation of 5.09 Mln.

A-Pac is trading mixed with Australia (4817.70, +0.31%), Hang Seng (23639, -0.08%) and Taiwan (7746, -0.16%).

Shanghai (2312.28, -0.12%) is trading lower. As mentioned earlier, it is likely to consolidate for some time below 2350 or see a corrective fall which will be healthy for the index going forward.

Nikkei (10627.46, -0.77%) closed below 10800-775 and is likely to dip further towards 10300. We can expect a stronger Yen for the coming days as the Nikkei corrects. This is long awaited/Healthy corrective dip and the major bull trend remains intact.

Nifty (6048.50, -0.56%) fell a bit yesterday and is likely to see some further correction/profit taking. Immediate level to be watched is 6000 a break below which can take it down to 5925-00 levels.


COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (96.61) remains strong and has risen up further. This current upmove can extend very well towards 101-103 in the coming days. However, Brent (112.33) remains mixed and ranged between 109 and 113. It will need a strong break above 113 to bring in strength to see higher levels.

Gold (1692.70) is nearing the upper end of its 1625-1700 sideways range. A strong break above 1700 can take it up towards 1750-1800 in the coming days. We will have wait and see whether Gold is going to see a breakout or is going to remain in this range for some more time.

Silver (32.16) looks stronger than Gold and looks good for a rise to 34-35.

Copper (3.69) is looking mixed as it is nearing an important Resistance at 3.73. A strong break above this Resistance will be very bullish and can take it further up to 3.90-4.00.

 

CURRENCIES
Market continues to remain calm. The Euro, Aussie and Swiss remains ranged while Cable is mixed and weak for the near term. Yen has strengthened after the BOJ Meeting yesterday. The Dollar-Index (79.87) has failed to rise past its 80.10-15 Resistance region and can now dip to 79.50-35 while below 80.

The Euro (1.3316) fell to 1.3267 and has risen back from there. It retains its 1.3250-3400 sideways range. Dollar-Yen (88.69) has come off sharply following the BOJ decision for an open ended asset purchase from next year and setting an inflation target of 2%. While below 89, it can come down further to test 88. The Euro-Yen Cross (118.10) is continuing to get Resistance at 120 and can test 117.50-00 on the downside.

Dollar-Swiss (0.9301) has come down, but the Support near 0.9270 is holding well and is keeping alive the chances of a rise to 0.9400-50. A break below 0.9270 can take it down to 0.9200-180. The Pound (1.5828) remains weak below 1.5800 and can fall further to 1.5700. Aussie (1.0536) is still ranged between 1.0500-600.

In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2278) tested 1.2300 as expected and has come off from there. The 1.2150-2350 sideways range remains intact. Dollar-Rupee (53.8150) has closed higher yesterday and has good chances of rising further towards 54.10-20.


INTEREST RATES
US Yields are rising overall. The 10-Yr (1.84%) can target 2.0% while the 30-Yr (3.03%) may stay above 3.0%. At the same time, the US 6 and 12 month Libors (0.48% and 0.81% respectively) have been coming down over the last month. Thus the US Yield Curve has been steepening.

German yields are also rising relative to US and the 2-Yr Bund-Bond spread (-0.07%) is heading towards Zero, sharply up from -0.32% in December. This can help keep the Euro strong.

Spanish yields have been rising over the last couple of weeks, but could stabilise now as the Spain 10-Yr (5.115%) may find Resistance near current levels.

There are a number of central bank meetings over the next 7 days. There's Bank of Canada today (no change expected from 1%), RBI next week (29th, market wants a cut, the RBI may not oblige) and FOMC on 30th.


DATA TODAY
1:30 GMT or 8:00 IST AU CPI
...Expected 0.4% ...Previous 1.4%

8:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 ...Previous 0-0-9

8:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK Unemp
...Expected 7.9% ...Previous 7.8%

13:00 GMT or 19:30 IST BOC Meeting
...Expected 1.0% ...Previous 1.0%


DATA YESTERDAY

BOJ Meeting
...Actual <0.10% ...Previous <0.10%


US Existing Home Sales
...Actual 4.94 Mln...Previous 4.99 Mln

 

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
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13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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