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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI data shows 2-speed Europe

Thursday, January 24, 2013 5:41:38 AM

 TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI data shows 2-speed Europe

***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Dec PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.3% prior
- (FI) Finland Dec Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.2% v +1.4% prior
- (FR) France Jan Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 42.9 v 44.9e (11th straight month of contraction); PMI Services: 43.6 45.5e (5th straight month of contraction)
- (ES) Spain Q4 Unemployment Rate: 26.0% v 26.0%e (record high)
- (CZ) Czech Jan Business Confidence: 1.7 v 1.6 prior; Consumer Confidence: -27.8 v -26 prior; Composite: -4.2 v -3.9 prior
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 3.50%
- (AT) Austria Nov Industrial Production M/M: -1.3 v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.5% v 2.2% prior
- (EU) ECB: 0.0 borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 530.0M prior; 206.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 203.6B prior
- (DE) Germany Jan Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 48.8 v 46.8e; PMI Services: 55.3 v 52.0e (services registers second consecutive month of growth and 19 month high)
- (NL) Netherlands Nov Consumer Spending Y/Y: -3.0 v -2.2% prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -2.4% v -3.1% prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.8%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 7.8% v 8.1%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Trade Balance (HKD): -48.0B v -50.3Be; Exports Y/Y: 14.4% v 9.2%e; Imports Y/Y: 11.9% v 8.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 47.5 v 46.6e; PMI Services: 48.3 v 48.0e; PMI Composite: 48.2 v 47.5e (all at 10-month highs)
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Current Account nsa: 19.8B v 11.6B prior; Current Account Seasonally adj: 14.9B v 8.0B prior
- (IT) Italy Nov Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -3.1% v -3.8% prior
- (PL) Poland Dec Retail Sales M/M: 15.1% v 19.2%e; Y/Y: -2.5% v +1.3%e
- (PL) Poland Dec Unemployment Rate: 13.4% v 13.3%e
- (UK) Dec BBA Loans for House Purchase: 33.6K v 34.1Ke
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Consumer Confidence: 117.9 v 118.7 prior (fourth straight MoM decline)
- (PL) Central/Eastern European Jan ZEW Indicator: +27.0 v +6.1 prior

Fixed Income:
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF54B vs. HUF45B indicated in 2016, 2018 and 2023 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities*** </
>Indices: FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,218, DAX flat at 7,706, CAC-40 +0.25% at 3,734, IBEX-35 +0.20% at 8,630, FTSE MIB +0.24% at 17,621, SMI +0.25% at 7,410, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,488

- European equity markets opened the session mostly lower amid the release of quarterly results from Apple, better than expected China PMI manufacturing data and mixed euro zone PMIs. Currently, markets have pared losses, as banks have rebounded. Resource-related firms are broadly higher, tracking the gains in oil prices. Companies due to report quarterly results during the US morning include 3M, Bristol-Myers, Nokia and Xerox.

- UK movers [Chemring +5.5% (FY12 results),International Ferro Metals +4% (Q4 production report), EasyJet +3.5% (Q1 sales), LSE flat (Q3 sales), Invensys flat (trading update); ICAP -5% (concerns related to Libor probe), Arm Holdings -0.50% (Apple results)]
- Germany movers [Prosieben +0.50% (broker commentary); Dialog Semi -3% (Apple results),Siemens -3% (ex-dividend),Commerzbank -0.70% (job cuts),Sky Deutschland -0.50% (broker commentary),Beiersdorf flat (FY12 sales)]
- France movers [Ipsen +3.2% (asset purchase agreement),Plastic Omnium +1% (Q4 sales); CGG Veritas -2% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Roche +1% (FDA approval related to Avastin); Logitech -7.5% (quarterly earnings),Lonza -4% (FY results)]
- Italy movers [Banca Monte Paschi -5% (concerns related to derivatives losses)]
- Dutch movers [Ziggo -1.5% (Q4 earnings), Sligro Foods -1.5% (FY profits)]

Speakers: </
>- German Bundesbank's Dombret commented that clear rules were need to avoid a currency warand that FX Interventions needed to be temporary, targeted and transparent. He agreed largely with IMF capital flow proposal and added that capital flow restrictions could hurt economies and should be used for very limited expectations
- Ireland PM Kenny commented at Davos that the domestic economy was making progress but remained in a fragile state but the govt has stabilized the situation. Ireland remained in talks with ECB on debt
- UK PM Cameron: Trade is being choked off by barriers and red tape; wants to push for more serious G8 debate on tax evasion
- Italy PM Monti: Domestic policy in EU countries must favor growth
- (NL) Netherlands PM Rutte: Aim is to keep the EMU intact but exit should be possible
- ESM chief Regling commented from Davos that Ireland and Portugal were making good progress with structural reforms and confident that a solution would be found for Cyprus. ESM has fully invested its paid-in capital
- German Econ Min Roesler: Expect German GDP to improve this year and be significantly above the +0.4% official growtn target
- Sweden Fin Min Borg reiterated his view that it too early to declare victory in EMU crisis and needed more expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. He wanted to see signs of solid demand
- SNB's Danthine reiterated view that CHF remained too strong and not sustainable. He did welcome the recent easing of pressure on currency. He noted that EUR/CHF floor was not designed for small adjustments (reply to question on raising floor to 1.25) but further measures might be needed. Deflation was expected to continue for several months
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) First Dep Chairman Ulyukayev commented that it would continue buying gold and other precious metals for reserve purposes. USDs share in fx reserves about 46%, Euro 40.5%, Canadian dollar 3%, Australian dollar 2%, Sterling 9%. Inflation seen at 7% in Jan-Feb period
- Poland Central Bank official Hausner commented that he saw 2013 domestic economic slowdown as being deeper and longer than the one experienced in 2009 but nothing indicated a recession for the country
- Italy PM-candidate Bersani denied press reports that he might ask Italy President for 2nd Senate vote if Monti coalition failed to assemble a majority (**Note this was the case in 1953 and 1958)
- OECD chief Gurria: Can never have too much structural reform - Davos comments
- Japan PM Abe commented that Govt wanted to keep possible BOJ law revision in sight and that bold monetary easing was necessary
- Japan Fin Min Aso: Too early to discuss amount of new JBG issuance for the year
- Moody's: Growth in China will moderate with no hard landing
- Former PBoC advisor Li Daokui: Worried about US fiscal issues; sees only minor changes in China buying US debt. Europe was working hard to carry out reforms and stated that China would be reluctant to ease monetary policy
- Former PBoC Advisor Fan Gang said overheating is a risk for China, as the economy has recovered
- Brazil Govt issues Presidential decree cutting electricity costs

Currencies:
- The European session started off with mixed sentiment despite better China flash manufacturing PMI data hitting a two year high. Other factors in the Far East ebbed away from risk appetite including dismal Japanese trade numbers, weak South Korea GDP data and ramifications after Apple earnings disappointed. The major European PMI data was also missed with France disappointing while Germany and Euro Zone numbers beat expectations.
- The JPY found its groove again and exhibited weakness aided by more verbal intervention. Japan Dep Econ Min Nishimura stated that USD/JPY at 100 would not pose a problem for Japan and added that Europe was not in a position to criticize Japan on the JPY. EUR/JPY cross got a boost after dealers noted that Japan's largest hedge fund would be back in market for EFSF bonds after a two year absence adding to the growing confidence in Europe
- EUR/USD trading continued to be listless with the pair well contained within the 1.3250-1.3400 range despite the pop up in the EUR/JPY cross. LTRO chatter supporting the Euro likely to intensify ahead of Friday report in which the ECB begins to provide the size of weekly repayments of 3-year LTRO

Political/ In the Papers:
- (BE) Fitch revises sovereign outlook on Belgium to Stable from Negative; Affirms AA rating
- IMF updates World Economic Outlook (WEO) cuts global 2013 GDP growth forecast to +3.5% from +3.6% Oct view
- (PT) Portugal 2012 deficit 5.0% of GDP, better than 5.4% agreed with Troika
- (ES) Catalonia Parliament passes non-binding declaration of sovereignty stating its citizens have the right to decide their own sovereignty

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (CH) World Economic Forum Holds Annual Meeting in Davos
- (RO) Romania Dec Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 7.5% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 5.00%
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec PPI M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior
- 06:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jan 18th: No est v $526.4B prior
- 06:00 (UK) Jan CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 15e v 19 prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor fixing
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 08:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speaks at Davos
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 355Ke v 335K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.200Me v 3.214M prior
- 08:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2016 Bills
- 08:58 (US) Jan Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 53.0e v 53.5 prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Jan Business Confidence: -11.0e v -11.8 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Global Economic Indicator: 3.1%e v 4.3% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Leading Indicators: +0.4%e v -0.2% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Jan Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: +1e v -2 prior
- 11:00 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 2-year, 5-year and 7-year refunding announcement
- 11:30 (UL) BOE member Salmon
- 12:30 (UK) BOE member Weale
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $15B in 10-Year TIPS
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Industrial Production M/M: No est v -2.1% prior; Y/Y: +0.3%e v -1.4% prior
- 18:30 (JP) Japan Dec National CPI Y/Y: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; CPI Ex Food, Energy Y/Y: -0.5%e v -0.5% prior

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
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