User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday July 12, 2005 - 21:03:52 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Dollar Slides On Expectations That Trade Deficit Will Increase

DailyFX Fundamentals 07-12-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

· Dollar Slides On Expectations That Trade Deficit Will Increase
· Euro Shrugs Off Weaker Growth Forecasts
· Pound Skyrockets On Higher Inflation

US Dollar

The dollar has sold off once again and this time in force. Yesterday's pause at the 20-day SMA seemed to be nothing more than a pause with the EURUSD breaking the point of resistance to climb another 200 pips. The market has been fairly quite today except for the rebound in oil prices. It has been no more than a few days since we have felt the wrath of Hurricane Dennis that we are already beginning to learn about the potential fury of Tropical Storm Emily. As we cautioned yesterday, oil prices could very well continue higher especially since we are only at the start of the Hurricane season with at least four more months left to go. After two days of a fairly empty US economic calendar, we could get some excitement following tomorrow’s trade balance report. Although most of the other relesases expected out this week (CPI, PPI, and retail sales) are predicted to move higher, the trade deficit is forecasted to remain unchanged at $57 billion for the month of May. There have been rumors circulating in the market though that the trade deficit could move closer to the record high of $60 billion that we saw back in February. If this is really the case, we could easily see the EURUSD back up above 1.2350. For the most part though, the market is still convinced that we will be chugging ahead with rate hikes. On the back of Friday’s non-farm payrolls release, the Fed Fund futures contracts are pricing in an increased likelihood of at least 2 more interest rate hikes by October. Meanwhile potential Greenspan replacement Ben Bernanke was fairly upbeat on the economy today citing a “healthy and sustainable” expansion and stable core inflation.


The Euro rallied strongly against the dollar, not allowing more pessimistic growth predictions to rain on their parade. According to European finance ministers, oil prices going forward will be taking a more substantial toll on the region’s growth than what could be offset by the previous slide in the euro. The ministers announced that economic growth in the region will come in below the original 2005 forecasts that they laid out back in April. Waning confidence, rising oil prices and recessionary conditions in Italy should only allow the country to grow by 1.3 percent instead of the initial forecasts of 1.6 percent. At the first meeting of the European Parliament under the UK Presidency, UK foreign secretary Jack Straw spent most of the time talking abiout the attacks in London and urging other members to assist in battling terrorism by supporting plans to hold mobile data to help trace terrorists. The UK did not outline any specific goals or plans, but did call for a “digestion pause” when it comes EU enlargement even though they still stand behind previous commitments to countries such as Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey and Croatia.” So for the time being, there is no exact timetable for when the group will take the next steps towards addressing the breakdown of the EU Constitution.

British Pound

Market participants saw inflation spike for the first time in June since May of 1998 today, rising 2 percent in the month and sparking some far fetched rate hike whispers. However, in light of a handful of hopes for higher interest rate considerations, it seems as though the Bank of England’s next move will be to cut the benchmark repurchase figure on confirmations of a decline in consumer spending. Lending further to the notion, it seems as though policy makers have already priced in an abnormal spike on rising commodity prices when they last convened. Subsequently, it has come to the attention of the market that inflationary concerns are no longer at the forefront of monetary thought for the central bank. Taking its place seems to be the increasing attention being focused on recently lackluster consumption data. For the first time in two years, the widely expected rate cuts could not come at a better time to boost demand. With the summer sales season quickly approaching as we move into August, lower short term interest rates could in fact boost the individual’s propensity to consume at bargain prices. The lone consideration still resides in the fears of a consumer credit problem. Lower short term interest rates would offer consumers even more a reason to rack up a balance and contribute to an already growing figure. However, policy makers may be siding with the positive effects of improved demand in curing this factor as well.

Japanese Yen

Same old news in the land of the rising sun today as continued evidence of deflationary pressures was presented through reports earlier on. The day’s surprise came as export prices increased a whopping 0.5 percent on a monthly basis against an expected decline of 1.3 percent. Higher oil prices look to be culprit yet again as burdened exporters looked to have passed on higher energy costs to their foreign counterparts. Although the higher figure may raise some top level eyebrows, the higher price may only be temporarily reflective of bottom line costs and not suggestive of real price increases. Also surprising was what seemed to be declining consumer confidence in the month. Declining after nine monthly rises, it looks as though the individual’s positive outlook on the economy, which has underpinned near term growth, may be turning. Attributed to the new pessimistic impressions seems to be the Japanese government’s planned income tax increase. Parliament has recently approved to halve the individual tax rebate, which was initiated in 1999, to 10 percent in January 2006. Policymakers would then contemplate abolishing the second half in 2007 adding an estimated $29.6 billion to a taxpayer’s burden. Adding injury to earlier insult, the tax rebate repeal comes after new larger pension requirements were instituted last year in order to save for an aging generation. As a result, this may leave some proponents of expansion confused as the idea would ultimately place the current recovery at risk.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105