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Friday January 25, 2013 - 10:57:02 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: UK Q4 GDP disappoints while German IFO exceeds expectations; focus turns to ECB LTRO repayments

Fri, 25 Jan 2013 5:32 AM EST

- Nikkei225 Index surges 2.9% at 10,926 (Sharpest gain since March 22, 2011) after Japan core cpi reading of 0.2 y/y puts pressure mounts on BoJ
- Japanese officials rejected charges they are manipulating the exchange rate.
-Japan Fin Min: BoJ easing aimed at beating deflation, not currency manipulation; excessive JPY strength being corrected
-Japan: Econ Min: Reiterates he will explain Japan FX stance & clarify misunderstandings of Japan policy at Davos
- IMF Lagarge: global economy was showing a timid recovery and would be slightly better in 2013 but uncertainties did remain
- ECB's Draghi: Positive contagion on markets had yet to be transmitted into the real economy
- German IFO survey registers MoM increases and beat analyst expectations
- UK Q4 GDP weaker than expected as it contracts by 0.3%
- Focus on amount of first ECB LTRO repayment announcement with 100B expected

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply Narrow w/e Jan 21st: 7.52T v 7.64& prior
- (FI) Finland Q4 House Prices Q/Q: -0.3 v +1.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.0% v 1.8% prior
- (HU) Hungary Nov Retail Trade Y/Y: -4.1% v -3.2%e
- (ES) Spain Dec Producer Prices M/M: -0.1% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.8% prior
- (EU) ECB: 0.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 210.3b parked in deposit facility vs. 206.8B prior
- (TW) Taiwan Dec M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.7 v 3.3% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: % v 3.7% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Jan Producer Confidence: -5.6 v -5.1e
- (DE) Germany Jan IFO Business Climate: 104.2 v 103.0e; Current Assessment: 108.0 v 107.3e; Expectations Survey: 100.5 v 98.5e
- (GR) Greece Nov Current Account: -850M v -684M prior
- (UK) Q4 Advanced GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.2%e
- (UK) Q4 Advanced Index of Services M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; 3M/3M: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (GR) Greece Q3 Household disposable income: 33.2B v 37.2B y/y

Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050 Bonds


- Indices: FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,273,
DAX +1% at 7,825, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3,772, IBEX-35 +0.50% at 8,711, FTSE MIB +0.40% at 17,832, SMI flat at 7,453, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,495

- European equity markets are mostly in positive territory, after opening broadly lower, as the German DAX has hit a new multi-year high, amid the release of better than expected IFO data. The FTSE 100 has lagged, as UK Q4 GDP missed market expectations. European banks are trading mostly higher ahead of the ECB's announcement related to LTRO payments. US companies due to report earnings later today include Honeywell and Procter & Gamble.

- UK movers [IAG +2% (broker commentary); LSE -1% (broker commentary), Anglo American -0.50% (Q4 production update)]
- Germany movers [Bayer +4% (broker commentary),TUI AG +1.5% (broker commentary) ;Salzgitter -2.5% (broker commentary), Wacker Chemie -1.5% (broker commentary),K+S -0.90% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [STMicroelectronics +4% (broker commentary),Credit Agricole +2% (asset sale),Technip +1.7% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Banca Monte Paschi +7% (largest shareholder to support capital plan),Pirelli -2.5% (broker commentary)Saipem -1.6% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Clariant +2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Dutch movers [SNS Reaal +9% (talks with possible investors),Akzo Nobel +0.30% (broker commentary)]

- IMF's Lagarde commented in Davos that the global economy was showing a timid recovery
and would be slightly better in 2013 but uncertainties did remain that included events like EMU crisis, US Debt and fiscal negotiations, BOJ policies and China. Central banks have been acting as fireman and action by them still needed. Unclear when govt would take over the baton from central banks. ECB had a little room to tweak rates if necessary
- ECB's Draghi commented in Davos that 2012 was the year of the re-launching of the Euro but more work needed to be done on the real side of the economy as the positive contagion on markets had yet to be transmitted into the real economy. Govt made extraordinary fiscal consolidation progress with fruits of such move were now being seen. Govt should be given credit for what they have done but the process of restarting European integration received momentum. OMT bond buying announcement was helpful in removing tail risk and the LTRO operations helped to tackle the banking sector funding problem. Market have experienced a renewed sense of tranquility and overcoming fragmentation was priority in 2013. He reiterated that EMU to have recovery in H2 2013 (in line with ECB press conference views)
- German IFO economists noted that domestic economy was making promising start to the year and forecasted Q1 GDP growth at 0.2% and added that a recession in country was not expected. German companies were starting to feel the effect from an easing in the EMU crisis as optimism was rising. Both capacity utilization and industrial output were rising. German Exporters had no fear of a currency war but could be a problem at some point.
- German BDB Banking Assoc Kemmer commented that Germany was seen presenting a proposal to split banks in the next 3-months
- Fitch commented on Portugal that its recent 5-year bond issue credit positive. The fall in Portuguese bond yields and successful bond issuance suggested that one of the positive rating triggers identified in our November review - a moderation of the Euro zone crisis - was having a positive effect on Portugal's fiscal financing position. Further evidence that the internal adjustment was working as planned, with continued reduction in the current and fiscal deficits, would lead to the Outlook being revised to Stable from Negative. It expected Portugal would not gain full market access before IMF-EU program ended (expected in 2013). Portugal will need additional funding support and a new program. Political risk remained significant
- UBS's Weber noted that the global economy bottomed out at the end of 2012. All fiscal and monetary policies were on extremely expansionary paths , which brought some risks. 2013 GDP for Europe would be just above flat y/y but was bullish on EU companies with exposure to China
- Finland President Niinistoe: EUR exchange rate too high
- France Labor Min Sapin: Domestic labor market remains "bad"
- Greece Asset development program chief Athanasopoulos commented that asset sales program was a key tool for growth and targeted 25B in asset sales by 2020
- DMO published results of consultation meeting with GEMMS (Gilt Edged Market Makers) with investors wanting more linkers sales in 2013-14. Gilt investors broadly content with maturity split, but govt consultations added to uncertainty

- The focus of the session was on the ECB LTRO repayment announcement.
Ahead of the announcement the Euro continued to exhibit strength across the major currency pairs with accounts positioning for more evidence that conditions in the euro zone were improving. German Jan IFO data did come in better-than-expected across the board. The EUR/USD and EUR/GBP pairs were at 11-month highs. The EUR/USD was firmly above the 1.34 handle. The Euro's resilience appeared based on the market's growing concern that LTRO repayments will be larger than expected (thus reducing the ECB balance sheet / tightening more than expected
- JPY extended to new trend lows after a weak CPI reading added further justification of Japan's more activist policy stance and pressure for BOJ actions. Japanese officials also rejected charges they were manipulating the exchange rate. The USD/JPY was at fresh 2 year highs as it approach the 91 handle while EUR/JPY cross tested above 122 level.
- GBP weaker after disappointing GDP data and hit a 5-month lows below 1.5750 level. There was chatter that the UK QoQ GDO might register a positive reading but it came in at -0.3% and below expectations

Political/ In the Papers:
- (EU) EU's Rehn: EU will decide on aid for Portugal and Ireland in mid April; evaluating many different types of aid; unclear whether the Euro is overvalued but currency wars must be avoided; Eurozone nations need skin in the game in bank recapitalizations; need substantial reduction in Cyprus sovereign and bank debt burdens; Cyprus bank problems pose systemically important risks for Europe.
- (EU) German Foreign Min Westerwelle says Eurozone crisis now past lowest point
- (EU) George Soros: Euro is here to stay and likely to appreciate as others seek to devalue via currency wars; Yen depreciation from BOJ policy is 'real' - Davos comments
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA): Successful T-bill auctions show that the govt has regained normal market access at the short end of the curve; Will probably go ahead with long term syndicated bond before resuming regular bond auction schedule; Access to the OMT bond buying program would be a positive factor.
-(ES) Spain PM Rajoy announces the extension of benefits to long-term unemployed until the unemployment rate drops below 20% -ABC
- (ES) Spain may extend short-selling ban on bank stocks - Spanish Press
-(NL) Netherlands PM Rutte: Confident his government will finish entire term.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (EU)ECB announces size of weekly repayments of 3-year LTRO
- 06:00 (IC) Iceland to Sell Bonds
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor fixing
- 06:30 (IN) Weekly India Forex Reserves
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.304T prior; Loans M/M: No est v 1.5% prior; Private Banks Lending (BRL): No est v 1.220T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 7.8% prior
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Jan Industrial Confidence: No est v 97.9 prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 73.6% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.2%e v 0.8% prior; Consumer Price Index: 121.6e v 121.9 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec CPI Core M/M: -0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.2% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: $0.9Be v -$1.3B prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec New Home Sales: 385Ke v 377K prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.00-3.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (FR) France Dec Net Change Jobseekers: +25.0Ke v +29.3K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.155Me v 3.1323M prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior




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