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CURRENCY WARS: Weak JPY policy persists. Key U.S. employment data due at the end of the week
|CURRENCY WARS: Weak JPY policy persists. Key U.S. employment data due at the end of the week|
28 January 2013 11:00 gmt
CALENDAR: North America: US- Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, 2-yr.
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Durable Goods, Pending Homes Sales.
- CURRENCY WARS: Japan continues to favor a weakening of the JPY as one of several means to encourage economic growth. At the end of last week, it was announced that Japanese December core CPI remained in contraction declining by -0.2% y/y. Chatter the REAL target for PM Abe is a weaker JPY as the 2.0% BOJ target is not realistic. Its our best guess that Tokyo is targeting a USDJPY level of around 100.00. That would work out to a rough devaluation of the JPY vs. the USD of 20-30% from previously prevailing levels.
- Data from Europe remains mixed with stronger than forecast German IFO data on Friday reinforcing a robust ZEW survey earlier in the week. On the other hand, French flash manufacturing PMI were exceptionally weak, while a triple-dip recession in the U.K. is possible.
- U.S. data recently have been mixed but generally stronger. Key employment data are due at the end of the week.
- The markets are currently trying to decipher the likely impact of repayments of special ECB LTRO funding for banks which will start this week. Depending on HOW the funds are repaid, the repayments could result in a tightening of ECB monetary policy.
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3250. the 10-yr bund is 1.65%, +1 bp. European bourses are mixed. U.S. shares are steady. The U.S. 10-yr is 1.94%, +1bp.
- Key Far East bourses were mixed. The 10-yr JGB is 0.75%, +2bp. the USDJPY 20-day average is 88.25. EURJPY 20-day average is 116.82.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com has been a forex trader and a FX analyst for a top N.Y. Fed watching service. Previously he was an FX consultant to major institutions. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
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