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CURRENCY WARS: Weak JPY policy continues. 2% Inflation target unrealistic. U.S. Pending Homes Sales soft
|CURRENCY WARS: Weak JPY policy continues. 2% Inflation target unrealistic. U.S. Pending Homes Sales soft|
29 January 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR:Far East: No Major data. Europe: No Major data. North America: US- Case-Shiller, CB Confidence Survey, 5-yr, API.
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Case Shiller, CB Confidence Survey, 5-yr auction.
- CURRENCY WARS: Japan continues to favor a weakening of the JPY as one of several means to encourage economic growth. Chatter the REAL target for PM Abe is a weaker JPY as the 2.0% BOJ target is not realistic.
- Data from Europe remains mixed with stronger than forecast German IFO data on Friday reinforcing a robust ZEW survey earlier in the week. On the other hand, French flash manufacturing PMI were exceptionally weak, while a triple-dip recession in the U.K. is possible.
- U.S. data recently have been mixed but generally stronger.Monday saw a much weaker than expected Pending Homes Sales Survey. Key employment data are due at the end of the week.
- The markets are currently trying to decipher the likely impact of repayments of special ECB LTRO funding for banks which will start this week. Depending on HOW the funds are repaid, the repayments could result in a tightening of ECB monetary policy.
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3264. the 10-yr bund is 1.69%, +5 bp. European bourses are mixed. U.S. shares are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr is 1.97%, +4bp.
- Key Far East bourses were mixed. The 10-yr JGB is 0.75%, +2bp. the USDJPY 20-day average is 88.77. EURJPY 20-day average is 117.76.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com has been a forex trader and a FX analyst for a top N.Y. Fed watching service. Previously he was an FX consultant to major institutions. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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