Wednesday July 13, 2005 - 01:23:02 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Swiss Franc 13th July 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.2763 ... 1.2788 ... 1.2808 ... 1.2848
Support....: 1.2698 ... 1.2675 ... 1.2655 ... 1.2630
We look for the recovery from 1.2699 to reach 1.2840-50 before lower again
Losses have been far stronger than anticipated and thus we need be slightly cautious of an overly bullish stance. However, we do feel the 1.2698 level was important and should cause a pullback. First stop should be the 1.2763 level where a small pullback is expected but we look for a move later towards the 1.2843-55 area which is expected to cap. Further resistance is found at 1.2887.
The drop below 1.2797 has implied a much larger downward correction. For today we look for a pullback first towards 1.2843-55. From there we look for further losses to develop that should decline back below 1.2699 and down to the 1.2655 corrective low at least and we suspect to 1.2609. Further support is seen at 1.2542-68.
Elliott Wave Comments:
13th July 2005
With the drop below 1.2797 the expanded flat Wave iv scenario has broken and it suggests the rally to 1.3075 was a short Wave v to complete Wave -c of Wave -v- and thus the conclusion of daily Wave (iii). We now expect a 38.2%-41.4% correction in Wave (iv) which implies an eventual test of 1.2413-64.
In the meantime we feel that the 1.2699 low marked Wave iii of the decline and thus a 38.2%-41.4% correction should stall in the 1.2840-55 area which is also marked by good pivot resistance. A 50% correction is at 1.2887 though we have doubts that this will be seen given the pivotal nature of 1.2840-55. From this peak look for losses to the 1.2609-19 area at least in Wave v.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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