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Tuesday January 29, 2013 - 22:08:19 GMT
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CURRENCY WARS: Marking time into the Fed on Wednesday. U.S. ADP and GDP data due. Weak Conference Board report.
|CURRENCY WARS: Marking time into the Fed on Wednesday. U.S. ADP and GDP data due. Weak Conference Board report.|
30 January 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: JP- Retail Sales. Europe: CH- KOF Index. EZ- Sentiment Indices, Consumer Confidence. North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Jobs, GDP, Weekly Crude, 7-yr, Fed Decision
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- Retail Sales, EZ- Sentiment Indices, Consumer Confidence, US- ADP Private Jobs. GDP, Weekly Crude, 7-yr, Fed Decision.
- CURRENCY WARS: Trading was mostly cautious Tuesday as the markets awaited the Fed policy decision Wednesday and a slew of data reports at the back end of the week.
- The focus of trade was in the EUR, as reportedly Hedge Funds to a run at 1.3500, but were rebuffed by option protection activities.
- During the day, U.S. Conference Board Sentiment Survey for January was disturbingly weak. We have not seen this gloomy sentiment translate into depressed economic activity yet.
- The Fed policy decision on Wednesday will come before the full January employment data is known. Key employment data are due on Friday. ADP private employment and 4Q12 advance GDP data are due on Wednesday.
- Data from Europe remains mixed with stronger than expected German data mixed with weaker data elsewhere.
- On Wednesday, the markets once again will have to figure out the likely impact of repayments of special ECB LTRO funding for banks. Depending on HOW the funds are repaid, the repayments could result in a tightening of ECB monetary policy.
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3277. the 10-yr bund is 1.69%, 0 bp. European bourses are mixed. U.S. shares are mixed. The U.S. 10-yr is 1.96%, -1bp.
- Key Far East bourses were mixed. The 10-yr JGB is 0.77%, +2bp. The USDJPY 20-day average is 88.97. EURJPY 20-day average is 118.16.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com has been a forex trader and a FX analyst for a top N.Y. Fed watching service. Previously he was an FX consultant to major institutions. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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