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Wednesday January 30, 2013 - 03:40:20 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 30-Jan-2013 -0337 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Dow Jones (13954.42, +0.52%) moved further up and is nearing 14050-100 resistance which can also be broken for further gains. The S&P case Schiller met street expectations as it came in at 5.55%.

A-Pac is mostly in the green with Australia (4922.10, +0.23%), Hang Seng (23888, +0.98%) and Taiwan (7821.16, +0.25%).

Shanghai (2364.93, +0.25%) is trading above its 2350-60 level and if manages to sustain these gains, then it will be very bullish in the coming days.

Nikkei (10986, +1.10%) is trading higher near its resistance level of 11000 and as mentioned yesterday a failure to rise past this level can keep the index in the 10400-11000 range for some time.

Nifty (6049.90, -0.41%) rose up initially after the RBI cut the Repo rate and the CRR by 25 Basis Points but then ended the day in the red as it could not hold on to its gains. Good news could not hold the markets up so what will? A break below 6025-00 can push it at least towards 5900 in the coming sessions.


COMMODITIES
Oil continues to look good, Gold remains ranged, Silver is mixed while Copper is near an important resistance.

Nymex Crude (97.59, +0.02%) has risen further and looks bullish for a further rise towards 103.00 in the coming days.

Brent (114.39, +0.03%) is also looking good and is targeting 118.00 in the coming days. Further higher levels also cannot be ruled out.

Gold (1663, +0.13%) was slightly up in its 1625-1700 range. 1660 is an important support on the weekly charts and has to be watched. A failure to hold will mean that a dip at least to 1625 is seen.

Silver (31.44, +0.84%) has risen and currently looks mixed. But a dip to 30.50-30.00 cannot be completely ruled out.

Copper (3.70, +0.43%) has risen further towards its 3.73-75 resistance on the daily charts. A break if seen will be bullish for a further rise towards 3.90 at least.


CURRENCIES
Risky assets have bounced back well while the Yen remains weak and is consolidating now. The Dollar-Index (79.57) has come down as expected and can move down to test its important Support at 79.30. The US Fed meeting and the US GDP will be the key events to be watched today.

The Euro (1.3492) has risen well and can rise further to 1.3530-60 which will be an important Resistance region now that has to be broken to see further rise. Dollar-Yen (90.95) remains strong for a rise to 92.00-20 and is now consolidating between 90.30 and 91.20 over the last few days. The Euro-Yen Cross (122.74) has risen back and is nearing its important Resistance at 123.10 which if broken can take it further higher to 124.30-50.

Dollar-Swiss (0.9220) is trading just above its important Support at 0.9200. Whether this Support holds or break will decide whether the pair is going back up to 0.9300-50 or coming down to 0.9100. The Pound (1.5759) has bounced back well from its low of 1.5674 and can rise further to 1.5800-30. Aussie (1.0473) has risen back well from its 1.0400-370 Support region and can rise to 1.0520 and 1.0600 as well. It is retaining its 1.0350-600 sideways range.

In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2339) has come off well failing to rise past 1.2400 and can move down to test 1.2300. Dollar-Rupee (53.76/77) is looking mixed and is not gaining momentum to rise past 54. It can be ranged between 54.30 and 54.00 for some time.


INTEREST RATES
The RBI lowered the Repo and CRR rates by 25bp yesterday. The 10-Yr GOI traded slightly lower at 7.85%. The charts suggest it can remain below 8.0% and drift lower towards 7.75-7.60%.

The US 10-Yr (2.02%) has risen past 2.0%. The 30-Yr (3.20%) has risen from 3.15% and targets 3.25%. The market will look for indications on when the current QE3 will be halted, whether in middle/ late 2013 or in early 2014. Our guess is the Fed will want to see Unemployment below 7.2% at least before it eases back on QE3.

The Spain 10-Yr (5.16%) has come down below 5.20% again. It suggests rates may stabilise sideways between 5.0-5.4% for some time now. The Spain-Germany 10-Yr Spread (3.47%) is likely to stabilise between 3.25-3.65% for a few weeks. Look for a breakout after that.


DATA TODAY
12:15 GMT or 18:45 IST US ADP Emp
...Expected 164 K ...Previous 215K

12:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 1.3% ...Previous 3.07%

18:00 GMT or 0:30 IST US FOMC Meeting
...Expected <0.25% ...Previous <0.25%


DATA YESTERDAY
RBI Repo Rate
...Actual 7.75% ...Previous 8.00%

RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Actual 7.00%...Previous 7.00%

RBI CRR
...Actual 4.00% ...Previous 4.25%

US Case Schiller
...Actual 5.55% ...Previous 4.2%

US Cons Conf
...Actual 58.6 ...Previous 66.7

 

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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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