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Wednesday January 30, 2013 - 11:44:04 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB allotment in 3-month LTRO confirms improvement in banking sector health appears to be for real

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB allotment in 3-month LTRO confirms improvement in banking sector health appears to be for real
Wed, 30 Jan 2013 5:43 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- S&P continues to hit fresh 5 year highs ahead of FOMC decision; Index having best yearly start since 1997.
- Nikkei225 index closed higher by +2.3% at 11,113; first close above 11K in 33 months
- Rising violence in Egypt pushes country to the brink of collapse.
- Australia: PM Gillard calls for September 14 elections.
- Spanish Q4 GDP disappointed, with a contraction of 0.7% q/q, weaker than the 0.6% q/q dip
- UK Dec Mortgage Approvals highest since Jan 2012
- ECB short-term allotment shows no rollover from last week's


***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Dec M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.2% v 6.2%e; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 10.1% v 9.7%e
- (CH) Swiss Dec UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.34 v 1.23 prior
- (ES) Spain Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.7% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.7%e
- (CH) Swiss Jan KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: 1.05 v 1.20e
- (EU) ECB: 4M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 526.0M prior; 208.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 211.8B prior
- (AT) Austria Dec Producer Price Index M/M: -0.4 v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.4% prior
- (SE) Sweden Jan Consumer Confidence: -2.9 v -8.8e; Economic Tendency Survey: 89.4 v 91.0e; Manufacturing Confidence: -18 v -14e
- (SE) Sweden Nov Non-Manual Workers Wages Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.7% prior
- (IT) Italy Jan Business Confidence: 88.2 v 89.5e; Economic Sentiment: 79.9 v 75.4 prior
- (NO) Norway Nov AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.2%e
- (IC) Iceland Q4 Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 5.0% prior
- (UK) Dec Net Consumer Credit: 0.6Bv 0.2Be; Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings: 1.0B v 0.5Be
- (UK) Dec Mortgage Approvals: 55.8K v 54.5Ke; highest since Jan 2012
- (UK) Dec M4 Money Supply M/M: % v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: % v -2.8% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: % v 3.4%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Business Climate Indicator: -1.09 v -1.00e; Consumer Confidence: -23.9 v -23.9e; Economic Confidence: 89.2 v 88.2e; Industrial Confidence: -13.9 v -13.5e; Services Confidence: -8.8 v -9.0e
- (PT) Portugal Jan Consumer Confidence: -58.7 v -59.8 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -4.3 v -4.4 prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGP-M (M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 7.9% v 7.9%e
- (BE) Belgium Jan CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 2.2% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (RU) Russia sold RUB18B in 2023 OFZ bonds; Yield: 6.75%
- (EU) ECB allotted $1.0B in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.63% vs. $20M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $392.0M in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.63% vs. $863.2M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK15B in 3-month Bills; Yield 0.9355%
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 6.5B vs. 4.5-6.5B indicated range in 5-year and 10-year BTP Bonds
- Sold 3.0B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated in 3.5% Nov 2017 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 2.94% v 3.26% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.30X v 1.29x prior
- Sold 3.5B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated in 5.5% Nov 2022 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 4.17% v 4.48% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.32x v 1.47x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 3.7B in 3-month LTRO at fixed 0.75% vs. 10Be
- (DE) Germany sold 1.637B in 2.5% July 2044 Bunds; Avg Yield 2.45% v 2.34% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.7x prior (Jan 25 2012 in 3.25% July 2042 Bund (record low yield)

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,346,
DAX -0.10% at 7,836, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3,783, IBEX-35 flat at 8,642, FTSE MIB -1.9% at 17,551, SMI -0.50% at 7,425, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,505

- European equity markets are trading mixed ahead of later today event risks which include the US FOMC decision, US GDP data and US earnings (including Boeing). In terms of European banks Deutsche Bank has outperformed as the firm is due to give its Q4 results on Thursday's session. Resource related firms are mostly higher, in line with the gains being seen for copper prices

- UK movers [Imagination Technologies +6.5% (broker commentary),WPP +2% (broker commentary), United Utilities +1% (trading update); Antofagasta -4.5% (2013 production guidance),Renishaw -4.5% (H1 results), Johnson Matthey -3% (Q3 results), Ferrexpo -2.5% (9-month results)]
- Germany movers [Qiagen +3% (Q4 results), HeidelbergCement +2.5% (broker commentary), ThyssenKrupp +1% (interest in Alabama plant); Salzgitter -2% (broker commentary),Fresenius SE -0.50% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Ipsen +1% (Q4 sales)]
- Italy movers [Luxottica +2% (Q4 sales),Fiat +1% (reports Q4 earnings later today); Saipem -35% ( profit warning),Eni -4% (profit warning by Saipem)]
- Switzerland movers [Roche -1% (FY12 profits, outlook),UBS -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Sweden movers [Swedbank +9% (FY results); H&M -2% (Q4 results, Jan sales guidance)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Asmussen
(Germany) commented in the press that the: Euro Zone periphery remained challenged with weak economies and fiscal matters. Spain's finances continued to be bogged down by an overburdened health system. Portugal's development was also closely linked to the recovery of its neighbor Spain. The situation in Greece was still serious, despite it having run "two-thirds" of the race already
- ECB's Nowotny reiterates that the ECB view that Euro exchange rate was within normal long term range and its recent rise was due to an improved economic outlook. Real economy indicators like IFO showed upward trend. He saw no deleveraging in Central Eastern Europe (CEE) from Austrian banks
- ECB's Noyer: French bank proposal is well balanced
- Spain PM Rajoy commented that changing deficit targets would send the wrong message and would present package of stimulus measures "shortly"
- Germany could be willing to ease opposition to bailout for Cyprus following pressure from the ECB
- Germany CDU's Meister: No decision yet on Cyprus
- Cyprus President Christofias: Received assurances from Russia that it would be ready to help with bailout
- ECB Q4 Bank Lending Survey noted that banks made it harder for firms
to borrow in the fourth quarter and expect to toughen loan
requirements further in the months ahead even though their own funding constraints had eased
- German opposition SPD leader Steinbrueck: No coalition with left party
- South Africa Minerals Min stated that it would not nationalize any assets and was committed to attracting investments. Must ensure enough coal for both local and overseas markets
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Subbarao: Reiterates view that future interest rate cuts to be driven by both inflationary trajectory and current account deficit
- Egypt opposition said to have called for urgent meeting with President in bid to end violence

Currencies:
- The JPY currency continued its trend to weaken. The USD/JPY pair tested above 91.30 in the session for fresh 2 year highs in the pair. Dealer cited the pickup in US Treasury yields as a factor in price action after the US 10-year yields move firmly over 2%.
- The EUR/USD finally moved above the 1.35 option barrier aided by cross-related flows in EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP pairs. The 7-day MRO on Wednesday did not hold any surprises for the market (allotted 124.2B vs. 125.3B maturing). The focus was now on the 3-month LTRO allotment. Reports noted that Spanish banks repaid almost a third of their 3-year LTRO borrowings. This helped the Euro sentiment as prior views were that LTRO repayments were mainly from banks from core euro zone countries . The 3-month data confirmed that banks did NOT roll funds from the 3-year into shorter unlimited allocations (7-day and 3-month funds).

Political/ In the Papers:
- (EU) EU Commission softens position on ringfencing - British press
- (EU) Fitch: Expecting a "pick-up" in peripheral euro zone
- EUR/USD: The reversal in Euro carry trade has weighed on commodity currencies - FT
- (CY) ECB President Draghi indicated that a default by Cyprus could pose systemic risks - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
- (CY) Russia President Putin said to have spoken with Cyprus President
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: 100% certian that 2013 will be Greece's last year in recession, towards Q4 there will start to be a recovery - Greek press; Would welcome a reduction of the level of debt - but there are many ways to achieve that.
- (PT) Portugal casinos to suspend paying taxes after decline in Revenues- Economico
-(ES) Sources close to the ECB have said that Spanish banks have repaid 44B (out of 137B total repaid) in LTRO last Friday- El Pais
- (ES) Catalonia region formally requests 9.07B from Spain govt liquidity fund - press
- (UK) PIMCO's El-Erian believes that the UK should remain in the EU - London Telegraph
- (US) Fitch: Reiterates may cut US sovereign rating if there is no consensus on debt ceiling issue - financial press
- (US) Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV): Democrats will evaluate additional deferrals for short periods of the planned spending cuts (sequester); new delays would encompass new revenue and other spending cuts

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) EU barroso meets with Italy PM Monti in Brussels
- (EU) ECB LTRO repayments begin
- (RU) Russia to sell 7-year OFZ Bonds
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Manufacturing PPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.6% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Industrial Production M/M: No est v -3.3% prior; Y/Y: No est
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Retail Sales M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -5.3% prior
-06:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -1.4K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 14.6% prior; Live Register Level: No est v 430.9 prior
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 25th: No est v 7.0% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Manufacturing Index: 1.0%e v 0.8% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 8.4%e v 10.7% prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Total Copper Production: No est v 478.5K tons prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Budget Balance (ZAR): +19.6Be v -33.3B prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -21.8B prior; Primary Budget Balance: +23.5Be v -5.5B prior; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 35.2%e v 35.0% prior
- 08:15 (US) Jan ADP Employment Change: +165Ke v +215K prior
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Advanced GDP Q/Q Annualized: 1.2%e v 3.1% prior; Personal Consumption: 2.1%e v 1.6% prior

- 08:30 (US) Q4 Advanced GDP Price Index: 1.5%e v 2.7% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.0%e v 1.1% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Central Bank currency flows
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 13:00 (DE) ECB member Weidmann (Germany) in Berlin
- 14:00 (IT) Italy PM Monti Speaks in Brussels
- 14:15 (US) FOMC Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 15:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%

- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Dec YTD Budget Balance (MXP): No est v -204.50B prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +4.1%e v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -5.6%e v -5.5%

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
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Fri 24 Nov
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09:00 DE- IFO Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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