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Wednesday January 30, 2013 - 17:22:13 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Markets Shrug Off Negative Initial Q4 GDP Reading US Market Update: Markets Shrug Off Negative Initial Q4 GDP Reading
Wed, 30 Jan 2013 11:57 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil Dec Manufacturing PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 7.2% v 6.6% prior
- (PT) Portugal Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.3% v -3.2% prior; Y/Y: -4.1%v -4.1% prior
- (PT) Portugal Dec Retail Sales M/M: -1.8% v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: -9.7% v -5.6% prior
- (IE) Ireland Jan Live Register Monthly Change: -0.9K v -1.4K prior; Unemployment Rate: 14.6% v 14.6% prior; Live Register Level: 430.1 v 431.0 prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 25th: -8,1% v +7.0% prior
- (CL) Chile Dec Manufacturing Index: -2.5% v +1.0%e
- (CL) Chile Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 11.0% v 8.4%e
- (CL) Chile Dec Total Copper Production: 513.3K v 478.5K tons prior
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Budget Balance (ZAR): 20.5B v 19.6Be
- (BR) Brazil Dec Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): 3.2B v 17.0Be; Primary Budget Balance: 22.3B v 23.5Be; Net Debt to GDP Ratio: 35.1% v 35.2%e
- (US) Jan ADP Employment Change: +192K v +165Ke
- (US) Q4 Advanced GDP Q/Q Annualized: -0.1% v +1.1%e; Personal Consumption: 2.2% v 2.1%e
- (US) Q4 Advanced GDP Price Index: 0.6% v 1.5%e; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.9%e
- (BE) Belgium Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v -0.4% prior
- (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories: Crude: +5.95M v +2.5Me; Gasoline: -960K v +500Ke; Distillate: -2.32M v -1Me; Utilization: 85% v 83.6% prior

- US equity indices are back to the flatline this morning after a volatile initial two hours of cash trading. The negative initial reading of Q4 GDP surprised many people, however the data is being heavily discounted due to the impact of government spending on the data. The greater focus has been on the January ADP jobs report, which seems to augur well for another moderately positive monthly employment report on Friday. The DJIA and S&P500 are flat on the session, while the Nasdaq is up 0.15%.

- The first negative reading in quarterly US GDP since 2009 is being blamed on a sharp decline in defense spending, which was a big part of the decline in government fixed expenditure. Data showed that government spending on defense in the quarter fell by the greatest amount since the early 1970s. Investors were concentrating much more on the solid increases seen in business and consumer spending in the report. Few expect much out of the FOMC at its January meeting today, given the adoption of employment and inflation targets at the December meeting. The consensus is for a wait-and-see tone.

- Research in Motion unveils its new Blackberry 10 (BB10) operating system this morning and launched two new phones. The new models are the Q10, with a physical keyboard, and the Q10, which is touchscreen only. The firm also said it would change its name to Blackberry and its ticker to BBRY. Shares of RIMM are flat on the day.

- Controversial Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon has said that he would retire on April 1st, which is almost a year after news of controversial loans to him from the company came out. McClendon dropped his role as Chairman last June, and activist investor Carl Icahn took a stake in the firm to up the pressure on him. The company disclosed that the board's review of the matter to date has not uncovered an improper conduct by McClendon. Shares of CHK are up 6%.

- Investors are sending shares of Amazon higher this morning after a mixed Q4 earnings report. The firm missed top- and bottom-line expectations, although operating income was up considerably on a y/y basis. The firm's usual broad guidance range indicated that it would most likely lose money in Q1. Margins remain as slim as ever, but were up from Q3's paltry 0.8%. Shares of Amazon have been volatile in early trading, dropping from a gain of more than 5% after hours to the flatline in the first 40 minutes of trading, then bouncing back to +2.5% or so.

- Boeing's profits crushed expectations in its Q4 and its initial profit forecast for FY13 was well ahead of estimates. Note however that its FY13 revenue forecast was subpar. In regards to the 787 Dreamliner, the company said that progress is being made on narrowing the causes of the battery and production continues on plan. BA is up more than 1% this morning.

- Among the biggest gainers this morning is Freescale Semi, with shares up more than 16%. The firm's Q4 more or less met expectations, although its Q1 revenue outlook was very strong.

***Looking Ahead***
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 13:00 (DE) ECB member Weidmann (Germany) in Berlin
- 14:00 (IT) Italy PM Monti Speaks in Brussels
- 14:15 (US) FOMC Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 15:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 15:30 (MX) Mexico Dec YTD Budget Balance (MXP): No est v -204.50B prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: +4.1%e v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -5.6%e v -5.5% prior




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