Thursday January 31, 2013 - 03:48:14 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 31-Jan-2013 -0345 GMT
Dow Jones (13910.42, -0.32%) ended in the red as it could not break 14050-100 resistance, Also the advance US GDP was disappointing at -0.14% against the expectation of 1.30%. Significant resistance is seen in 14000-200 region on the monthly charts, we have reviewed our yesterday’s bullish stance on the Dow as we would rather be cautious than optimistic at current levels. FOMC will be continue the stimulus till unemployment declines to at lest 6.5%.
A-Pac is in the red today following the weak US GDP data yesterday. Australia (4894,-0.50%), Hang Seng (23671.85, -0.63%) and Taiwan (7807, -0.33%) are all trading lower.
Shanghai (2373, -0.39%) is also a bit soft today. We need to see where it closes for the week, a strong close above 2360-75 levels will be bullish.
Nikkei (11050, -0.57%) closed higher yesterday but has dipped again today. It either comes back in the 10400-11000 range or takes support at 11000 to move higher again. Weekly close will give a better idea.
Nifty (6055.75, +0.10%) was flat for the day. Today is the derivatives expiry and it can be volatile. With Dow at the resistance and Nifty being just sideways for the whole of Jan, we might just be tripped off in February series. Break of 6000 can be a sentiment changer.
Good rise in the Commodity space yesterday following the Fed's decision to leave the interest rates unchanged near zero until the unemployment rate falls to atleast 6.5% and to continue the stimulus until the employment situation improves substantially.
Crude remains strong. Both Nymex Crude (97.92) and the Brent (115.16) are looking bullish for an immediate target of 101-103 and 118 respectively. 122-123 on the Brent and 106-107 on the Nymex can be seen there after.
Gold (1677.90) has risen well within its 1625-1700 range and will have to be seen if it can gain further momentum to rise past 1700 this time.
Silver (32.05) has failed to see a strong break below 31 and has risen back very well over the last couple of days. 33.00-50 is a very important Resistance region which can be tested now and a strong break above this Resistance region will open doors for a rise to 35.50.
Copper (3.73) tested its important Resistance at 3.75 yesterday. A strong break/close above 3.75 will be very bullish and can take it up to 3.85-90. We will have to wait and see. To see the Resistance at 3.75, take a look at the 3-Day and Weekly Chart in the link below:
Euro (1.3567) trades above the 200-week MA (1.3527). There could be some to-fro movement around 1.3530 now. Some Resistance may be seen near 1.3605. Dollar-Yen (90.87) has come off a bit from yesterday's high near 91.40. The trend still remains strongly up while above 90.00-89.50. The Euro-Yen (123.23) trades right at an important Fibo retracement of the big fall from 169.92 (2008) to 94.10 (2012). Thus, there can be some chances of consolidation near current levels.
The Pound (1.5803) has recovered well from the low of 1.5697 earlier in the week and might be bought on dips. The Aussie (1.0425) could dip towards 1.0350 within an overall sideways range. The Swissy (0.9101) has seen a sharp gain yesterday. It now trades near the 21-mth MA. It can target 0.8850 after some consolidation near current levels.
Overall, the Euro, Euro-Yen and Swissy trade near some significant technical levels. The trend can continue in the longer term, but we could see some consolidation in the near term.
The Brazilian Real (1.9865) has strengthened further, but might find it difficult to gain beyond 1.9500. The Sing Dollar (1.2379) has been weakening for the last couple of weeks and could test the 200-day MA at 1.2417. The EUR-SGD, which was a popular Short last year is being bought back aggressively.
Dollar-Rupee (53.3050) could test important Supports near 53.10-00, maybe lower.
The US Fed yesterday said it would continue with stimulus and keep rates low till Unemployment does not fall to 6.5% at least. At the current pace, that will take at least 15-18 months in our estimate, if not longer. There's a lot of hope built around the Housing sector, but it might have a limited capacity to contribute to growth and employment.
The US 10-Yr (1.99%) has dipped back below 2.0%. While yields could move up a little more, the pace could slow down a bit.
Italian 10-Yr (4.32%) and Spanish 10-Yr (5.23%) yields have broken their downtrends since Jul-12 and are likely to inch up a little more. A lot of the good news is already in the market and people may turn a little cautious now.
Looking at the Euro-Yen v/s the Germany-Japan yield Spread, it would seem that the Euro-Yen has moved up much more than might be justified. Take a look at
12:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Personal Income
...Expected 0.7% ...Previous 0.6%
12:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.4% ...Previous 0.4%
12:30 GMT or 19:00 IST CA GDP
...Expected 0.2% ...Previous 0.0
23:15 GMT or 5:45 IST JP PMI
US ADP Emp
...Actual 192 K ...Previous 185K
...Actual -0.1% ...Previous 3.07%
US FOMC Meeting
...Actual <0.25% ...Previous <0.25%
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."