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Thursday January 31, 2013 - 19:12:06 GMT
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Forex - Morning Report

Morning Report Friday 1 February 2013


Market wrap
Sentiment was mildly downbeat, the news flow mixed. Standard & Poor’s warning that China could be at risk of an investment-led collapse was an early catalyst, followed by a disappointing German retail sales report (but balanced by a drop in unemployment). From the US, the stronger Chicago PMI provided only a brief boost. European equities closed 1.1% lower, while the S&P500 is down 0.2%. Copper is down 0.6%, gold -0.9% but iron ore rose 2.1%. US 10yr treasury yields fell and rose for no net change at 1.99%.

The US dollar index (DXY) is slightly lower and near critical technical support at 79.0. EUR initially fell from 1.3585 to 1.3541 but rebounded in NY to 1.3594 – a fresh 15-month high. USD/JPY rose from 90.80 to 91.38 – testing 2 ˝ year highs. AUD recovered from a week of selling to bounce from 1.0380 to 1.0444. NZD extended its post-RBNZ rally (the outcome was a mildly hawkish surprise) from 0.8345 to 0.8413. That pushed AUD/NZD even lower to 1.2410 – a 4-month low.

Economic wrap
US core PCE deflator 0.0% in Dec. No surprise given the quarterly data yesterday including the 0.9% annualised core PCE deflator in Q4. The monthly deflator has rounded down to zero is four of the last five months. The report also showed a 2.6% surge in personal income (fastest rise in eight years) as firms paid dividends and bonuses earlier than usual to beat 2013 tax increases; that income gain will be reversed in coming months. personal spending rose 0.2% in Dec. Accelerating spending in Q4 vs Q3 was actually due to a sharp monthly rise back in Sep: monthly spending rose by an average of 0.5% in Q3 vs less than 0.2% in Q4 so the recent spending profile is somewhat subdued and at risk of slowdown in 2013 as lower confidence and higher taxes bite.

US employment costs rose 0.5% in Q4 reflecting wages growth of 0.3% and benefits growth of 0.6%, broadly similar to the previous four quarterly outcomes when the ECI rose by either 0.4% or 0.5%. Annual ECI growth edged down from 2.0% yr to 1.9% yr.

US initial jobless claims jumped 38k to 368k in the week ended Jan 26, reversing much of 45k fall over the prior two weeks, reflecting seasonal adjustment difficulties rather than any underlying shift in job market conditions. In Jan, corporate layoff announcements fell 24.4% yr.

US Chicago PMI rose from 50.0 to 55.6 in Jan, its highest since April last year but way down from 59.2 in Jan 2012, 66.6 in Jan 2011 and 59.8 in Jan 2010. Meanwhile the Milwaukee PMI edged down from 52.2 to 51.3 in Jan.

Canadian GDP grew 0.3% in Nov, its fastest monthly gain since April. Industrial product prices were flat in Dec after falling in Oct and Nov.

German retail sales fell 1.7% in Dec, pulling the annual pace of contraction down to –4.7% yr, the weakest early 2009 when the economy was in recession. French consumer spending was flat in Dec for an annual pace of –0.1% yr. In Jan, German unemployment fell 16k and Dec’s 3k rise was revised to –2k. These falls were the first since Q1 last year. The jobless rate eased from 6.9% to 6.8% in Jan, its first fall since Dec 2011. German inflation dipped from 2.1% yr to 1.7% yr, matching the cycle low of 1.7% yr recorded in June-July 2012.

Market outlook
AUD and NZD Outlooks: Locally there’s NZ migration, Australian PPI, house prices and PMI – none of which are major market movers. NZD followers may keep an eye on RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s lunchtime speech in Christchurch. More important for both currencies will be China’s PMI reports (both official and HSBC versions), and of course, the monthly US payrolls report tonight.

NZD/USD 1 day: 0.8370 should limit any mini-correction, a test of 0.8445 above likely.
NZD/USD 1 month: The positive trend since May remains intact as long as 0.8215 holds, targeting 0.8475 and beyond.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening today 1bp higher at 2.90%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 month: The break above 2.80% heralds 2.94%, supported by improving NZ data and higher offshore yields.
AUD/USD 1 day: 1.0475 should cap this 12-hour rally, 1.0385 below looking vulnerable.
AUD/USD 1 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle, awaiting a break higher.
AUD/NZD 1month: Eventually should break below 1.2400, heralding 1.2100. The technical picture is consistent with relative data flow and central bank biases.





Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 1 February 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.




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