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Friday February 1, 2013 - 11:25:35 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Manufacturing data continues to show improvement; Euro hits new trend highs against major pairs

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Manufacturing data continues to show improvement; Euro hits new trend highs against major pairs
Fri, 01 Feb 2013 5:38 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (JP) Nikkei225 Index ends session up 0.5% at 11,191 (highest since Apr 2010); longest weekly winning streak in 54 years

- SPX ends month with best Jan since 1989
- China Shanghai Composite at fresh 7-month high and 7 best weekly performance since Oct 2011
- Mixed overnight Chinese manufacturing PMI data (official and non-official) the recent positive tone to broad risk sentiment has been maintained with both reading remaining in expansion territory
-China Jan PMI Manufacturing (official reading) missed; 50.4 vs 51.0e
-China HSBC PMI Manufacturing beats; 52.3 vs 52.0e to 2-year high
- Australia Jan manufacturing PMI at 3.5 year lows
- Japan Jobless data missed expectations with first increase since April 2012 (4.2% vs 4.1%e)
-Japan Dec household spending misses: -0.7% vs -0.2%e
- European Manufacturing PMI data generally show improvement but still in contraction territory; German reading came in much better than expected.
- USD Index falls below the 79 handle for first time since Oct
- Netherlands Gov't confirmed it would nationalize SNS Reaal [SR.NL]
- Senate approves bill temporarily suspending debt ceiling

***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Jan NCB Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 v 51.4 prior; 9-month low but 6th straight reading in expansion territory)
- (SE) Sweden Jan Swedbank PMI Survey:49.2 46.1e
- (FR) France Jan New Car Registrations -15% y/y
- (NO) Norway Jan PMI Survey: 50.5 v 50.4e
- (HU) Hungary Nov Final Trade Balance: 181.6B v 703.8M prelim
- (HU) Hungary Jan PMI Survey: 55.9 v 48.9 prior; highest since March 2012
- (TR) Turkey Jan Manufacturing PMI: 54.0 v 53.1 prior; 22-month high
- (PL) Poland Jan Manufacturing PMI: 48.6 v 48.8e
- (EU) ECB: 335M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 3.0B prior; 185.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 165.9B prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Manufacturing PMI: 46.1 v 45.5e; 21st straight reading in contraction territory
- (AT) Austria Jan unemployment rate: 9.3% v 8.6% prior
- (CZ) Czech Republic Jan Manufacturing PMI: 48.3 v 46.0 prior; 9th straight month of contraction
- (CH) Swiss Jan PMI Manufacturing: 50.5e v 49.5 prior; first growth in 10 months
- (CN) China Q4 Current Account: $65.0B v $70.8B prior
- (IT) Italy Jan PMI Manufacturing: 47.8 v 47.4e; highest since March 2012 but 18th straight month of contraction
- (FR) France Jan Final PMI Manufacturing: 42.9 v 42.9e; 11th straight month of contraction
- (DE) Germany Jan Final PMI Manufacturing: 49.8 v 48.8e; 11th straight month of contraction
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Final PMI Manufacturing: 47.9 v 47.5e; 11th month high but also 11th straight month of contraction

- (GR) Greece Jan Manufacturing PMI: 41.7 v 41.4 prior; 41st straight month of contraction
- (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 11.2% v 11.2%e; highest since 1999
- (NO) Norway Jan Unemployment Rate: 2.7% v 2.7%e
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Kagiso PMI: 49.1 v 47.4 prior
- (UK) Jan PMI Manufacturing: 50.8 v 51.0e; second straight month of expansion
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan CPI Estimate Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Unemployment Rate: 11.7% v 11.9%e

- (DK) Denmark Jan PMI Survey: 56.1 v 57.0 prior

Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050 bonds
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 2020, 2025 and 2042 bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
-Indices: FTSE 100 +0.70% at 6,319
, DAX +0.70% at 7,830, CAC-40 +1% at 3,768, IBEX-35 -1.2% at 8,267, FTSE MIB +0.10% at 17,457, SMI +0.30% at 7,415, S&P 500 Futures +0.40% at 1,499

- European equity markets are mostly higher ahead of the later today release of payrolls data out of the US. Spain's IBEX-35 has lagged, amid declines in financials after the country's market regulator failed to extend the ban related to the shorting selling of financial companies. Overall European banks are mixed, as French banks have outperformed. Resources related firms are broadly higher, tracking the gains in copper prices. In terms of the major European PMI data, m/m improvements were seen for Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain and Switzerland. UK PMI was below market expectations, while the French data was in line.

- UK movers [De La Rue +6% (trading update),BT +5% (Q3 results), Qinetiq +4% (contract award); Tate & Lyle -3% (trading update),Shell -0.90% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Porsche +3% (settlement agreement), Deutsche Bank +0.50% (broker commentary); Bayer -0.30% (EU proposed suspension of neonicotinoids)]
- France movers [BNP +1.3% (broker commentary)LVMH +0.50% (FY12 results)]
- Spain movers [BBVA +0.30% (Q4, FY results)]
- Italy moves [Autogril +3% (may consider options for certain units),Banca Popolare di Milano +6% (speculation related to governance changes)]
- Sweden movers [Electrolux -2.6% (Q4 results)]
- Austria movers [Raiffeisen Bank -5% (profit warning, OMV -1% (Q4 trading update)]

Speakers:
- Portugal PM Coelho
: Have recovered credibility with creditors - comments from Parliament
- EU's Almunia: Received proposals from Google related to settling antitrust matters
- Italian election polls saw Berlusconi narrowing Bersani's lead to 5 pts. Bersani's coalition seen withl 32.8%, Berlusconi 27.8% (*Note: As recently as a month ago Bersani was seen with a lead of over 15 points)
- Japan Econ Min Amari: No comment on currencies (reply to reporters in Tokyo)
- China ex Vice Commerce Min Wei Jianguo: Foreign trade faces greater severity in 2013

Currencies:
- USD maintained a softer tone against the European currencies. The USD Index falls below the 79 handle for first time since Oct
- EUR/USD continued to move higher to new trend highs with dealers noting improvements in PMI Manufacturing data throughout most of Europe as the current catalyst. Also Euro was supported by another new low in 2 year forward points. Another key event will be the ECB's announcement of repayments of the 3 year LTRO funds. Dealers summed up its price action noting that it was 'pretty overbought' but hesitant calling the top. The Euro continued to be aided by cross-related flows. The EUR/JPY pair tested above the 126 handle for the first time since April 2010. The EUR/USD was at 1.3670 just ahead of the NY morning
- USD/JPY paused during the European morning. Some dealers noted that pair had achieved one technical objective at 92.30 from the breakout above 85 a few weeks back

Political/ In the Papers:
- (US) Senate approves debt ceiling suspension legislation; as expected; Bill will suspend the debt ceiling until May 19
- (ES) Spain market regulator allows short selling ban to end, will not further extend it
- (ES) El Pais has obtained internal accounting ledgers of the ruling Popluar party which show the group's leading members have taken payments on the side for years
- Dexia [DEXB.BE]: Seeking to reduce reliance on ECB funding - FT
- Barclays [BARC.UK]: UK's FSA is probing allegations that the firm lent Qatar's sovereign wealth fund money to acquire shares in the bank - FT
- (CN) China may defer expansion of property tax trials - China Securities Journal
- (JP) Fitch analyst: Risk of a funding shock in Japan is still remote - financial press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia Jan Reserve Fund: no est v $62.1B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $88.6B prior
- (RO) Romania Jan Total International Reserves: No est v $35.4B prior
- (PE) Peru Jan Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.7% prior; Wholesale Prices M/M: No est v -0.1% prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.4%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -4.8%e v -1.0% prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces size of weekly LTRO repayment 20B v 137.2B prior
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jan PMI Manufacturing: No est v 51.1 prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +165Ke v +155K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +168Ke v +168K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +10Ke v +25K prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.8%e v 7.8% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 14.4% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +28K prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.1% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior

- 08:30 (US) Fed member Dudley
- 08:58 (US) Jan Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 55.5e v 56.1 prelim:
- 09:00 (EU) ECB member Costa (Portugal)
- 09:55 (US) Jan Final University of Michigan Confidence: 71.5e v 71.3 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Jan ISM Manufacturing: 50.6e v 50.7 prior; Prices Paid: 56.0e v 55.5 prior

- 10:00 (US) Dec Construction Spending M/M: +0.6%e v -0.3% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Remittances: $1.7Be v $1.7B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -22.5% prior
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Trade Balance: -$3.4Be v +$2.3B prior; Exports: $16.9Be v $19.8B prior; Imports: $20.5Be v $17.5B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan Budget Balance: No est v 14.1B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -48.5B prior
- 17:00 (US) Jan Total Vehicle Sales: 15.20e v 15.30M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 11.90Me v 11.97M prior

 

 

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