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Friday February 1, 2013 - 17:09:48 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Investor Accentuate the Positive in a Mixed January Jobs Report US Market Update: Investor Accentuate the Positive in a Mixed January Jobs Report
Fri, 01 Feb 2013 11:44 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (RO) Romania Jan Total International Reserves: No est v $35.4B prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -3.6%-4.8%e
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jan 25th: $295.7B v $295.7B prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan PMI Manufacturing: 53.2 v 51.1 prior
- (CZ) Czech Jan Budget Balance (CZK): 42.4B v -101.0B prior
- (US) Jan Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +157K v +165Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +166K v +168Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +4K v +10Ke
- (US) Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.9% v 7.8%e; Underemployment Rate: 14.4% v 14.4% prior; Change in Household Employment: +17K v +28K prior
- (US) Jan Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.1%e v 2.1% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.4 v 34.5e
- (US) Jan Final Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 55.8 v 55.5e
- (CA) Canada Jan Manufacturing PMI: 50.5 v 50.4 prior
- (US) Jan Final University of Michigan Confidence: 73.8 v 71.5e
- (US) Jan ISM Manufacturing: 53.1 v 50.6e; Prices Paid: 56.5 v 56.0e
- (US) Dec Construction Spending M/M: 0.9% v 0.6%e
- (MX) Mexico Dec Remittances: $1.7B v $1.7Be

- The mixed jobs report this morning is proving no impediment to further equity gains, with European indices looking to close at their highs and all three leading US indices making solid gains. DJIA is up 1%, the S&P500 is up 0.95% and the Nasdaq is up 1%.

- The DJIA popped above 14,000 briefly for the first time since October 2007 this morning. This is chiefly a psychological development although analysts point out that this is where markets capped gains back in the fall of 2007. The market has only closed above 14,000 nine times.

- The headline non-farm payrolls numbers were not inspiring, with the +157K figure right in line with the original December number. However, the revisions to the December data to +196K from +155K were a big positive, thanks to the nine-month benchmark revisions. Moreover, analysts blame the weaker job growth, like much of the rest of the data softness this month, to shenanigans in Washington.

- The January ISM manufacturing report was better than expected, rising to 53.1 from the December reading of 50.7. Note that the new orders and employment components were solidly in growth territory. The final reading of the January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index ticked slightly higher to 73.8 from the initial 72.9 reading. This compares to the November reading of 82.7.

- The euro experienced a brief hiccup this morning following the ECB's announcement of three-year LTRO repayments at 3.5B versus the 20B expected. There were additional headwinds from corruption cases: Italian prosecutors opened an investigation into five banks over derivatives operations and more of Spain PM Rajoy's dirty laundry emerged in the press. EUR/USD was back to the upswing by mid-morning, approaching the 1.3710. USD/JPY continued to have difficulties to move above the 92.30 technical level, which was an objective from its move above the 85 handle a few weeks back. Cable has plunged on rumors circulating of a UK downgrade, dropping from 1.5880 to 1.5730 before finding support.

- US oil majors Chevron and Exxon both beat consensus earnings expectations on solid y/y profit growth. Analysts highlighted that profits at the two firms and the industry in general are benefitting from high margins on the fall cost of domestic crude thanks to shale production. XOM is flat on the session, CVX is up just shy of 1%.

- National Oilwell echoed comments from other oil services firms earlier in January, warning that headwinds in the North America land drilling markets are an issue for the firm. The firm's earnings and backlog were solid, but gas shale drilling slowdown remain the big obstacle for the firm. NOV is down 4%.

- Shares of Dell made another leg up in the premarket on press reports that the company's going-private deal could be announced as soon as Monday. Pricing remains unknown, but Michael dell would get a majority stake, with Silver Lake and Microsoft minority holders. DELL is up more than 4%.

- Shares of Brink's are down more than 10% this morning after the company's Q4 earnings missed expectations and the firm warned about challenging comps in Q1.

- The IPO of Pfizer's animal health unit came off quite well this morning, opening for trade well above its pricing level. Shares of ZTS are up 17% on the session. PFE is up 1.6%. Merck is flat after largely in-line earnings.

***Looking Ahead***
- (RU) Russia Jan Reserve Fund: no est v $62.1B prior; Wellbeing Fund: No est v $88.6B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -22.5% prior
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Trade Balance: -$3.4Be v +$2.3B prior; Exports: $16.9Be v $19.8B prior; Imports: $20.5Be v $17.5B prior
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Jan Budget Balance: No est v 14.1B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -48.5B prior
- 17:00 (US) Jan Total Vehicle Sales: 15.20e v 15.30M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 11.90Me v 11.97M prior

- 20:00 (CN) China Jan Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 56.1 prior



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