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CURRENCY WARS: EURO underpinned vs. USD and JPY. European officials can't be pleased. Will Draghi comment on forex Thursday?
|CURRENCY WARS: EURO underpinned vs. USD and JPY. European officials can't be pleased. Will Draghi comment on forex Thursday?|
4 February 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: JA- No Major Data. Europe: EZ- PPI. North America: US- Factory Orders
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: EZ- PPI, US- Factory Orders
- CURRENCY WARS: The EUR worked higher vs. the USD and JPY early in the day Friday but then faded against the USD following mostly solid U.S. data over the day. The headline U.S. employment report appeared initially to be weak, however revisions to earlier data suggested that the data were not as weak as initially feared. U.S. Manufacturing PMI data were also stronger than forecast.
- Final January manufacturing PMI readings from Europe were mostly better than expected as well, however,. U.K. PMI data were weaker than expected, but still barely in expansion. The EZ flash HICP (CPI) estimate of 2.0% yy for January brought the ECB back in line with its target for the first time since December 2010.
- Chinese PMI data (NBS and HSBC) were mixed. but still suggest that the economy is expanding.
- The first half of this week sees the final wave of PMI releases. This is also the first full week of the month so there will be a number of central bank meetings starting with the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday. It has not met since early December. The tone of the RBA policy statement will be watched as closely as their rate posture. On Thursday, both the Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce their latest policy decisions. No rate changes are foreseen. a slew of U.K. data are due over the week while this is a relatively slow period for high-impact data items from the U.S. .
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3351. the 10-yr bund is 1.66%, -2 bp. European bourses are up. U.S. shares are higher. The U.S. 10-yr is 2.01%, +4bp.
- Key Far East bourses were mixed to higher. The 10-yr JGB is 0.77%, +2bp. The USDJPY 20-day average is 89.61. EURJPY 20-day average is 119.68.
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com has been a forex trader and a FX analyst for a top N.Y. Fed watching service. Previously he was an FX consultant to major institutions. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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