Sunday February 3, 2013 - 20:14:37 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Monday 4 February 2013
Stronger US and European economic data boosted sentiment on Friday night. US payrolls, the highlight of the evening’s calendar, beat estimates (after revisions) as did PMI, consumer confidence and construction spending shortly afterwards. The outturns boosted the S&P500 by 1.0% to a fresh five year high and the DJIA to within 1% of an all-time high. The CRB commodities index rose 0.4%, copper +1.4% and Brent oil +1.1%. US 10yr treasury yields were volatile, initially plunging after the still QE-friendly payrolls report from 2.02% to 1.92% but rebounding following the remaining data releases to 2.04%. Moderate Fed member Bullard may also have encouraged the bond selloff with his comments an unemployment rate in the low 7’s may see QE curtailed.
The US dollar index (DXY) gyrated wildly post-payrolls but ended the day little changed. EUR overcame a dip to 1.3586 to make a fresh 14-month high of 1.3711, slipping into the close at 1.3640. Speculative futures positioning increased further last week but is well short of historical highs. USD/JPY surged from 91.80 to 92.97 – a fresh 31-month high. AUD extended its post-China PMI decline to 1.0361 before the Eurozone and US data revived it to 1.0425. NZD outperformed most, rising from 0.8397 to 0.8471 – a 6-week high. AUD/NZD extended its breakdown to 1.2295, technical and relative fundamental developments attracting more into this trade.
US non-farm payrolls rose 157k in Jan. Annual revisions to the seasonal factors on top of the usual previous two months’ revisions saw Q4 revised up from 453k to 603k (ie 151k month average revised to 201k), so 157k in Jan represents a slowdown from 247k in Nov last year. For comparison, Q3 jobs growth averaged 152k, Q2 108k and Q1 262k. So Q4 and Q1 so far have failed to match the jobs growth high point of a year ago. Also, the separate household survey showed up just 17k, and with the labour force rising 143k most of that went straight into unemployment, so the jobless rate rose from 7.8% to 7.9%, its highest since August last year. Hourly earnings and aggregate hours worked have both shown slower growth in the past two months, from 0.4% in Nov to 0.2% and 0.5% to 0.1% respectively. The industry breakdown showed across the board gains in Jan outside of temp hiring and the public sector. US factory ISM rose from 50.2 to 50.7 in Jan, its highest since April last year. Orders, jobs and production all contributed to the rise. Also the Uni of Michigan consumer sentiment index was revised up from 71.3 to 73.8, now a partial rebound after Dec’s 9.8 pts fall top 72.9, rather than an extension of that fall. The revision was almost entirely due to the outlook component (up 3.9 pts vs 0.2 pts for current conditions). US construction spending rose 0.9% in Dec, with revisions the ninth straight month of gain, once again led by a surge in residential spending, up 2.1%, although non-res rose just 0.3%.
Euroland CPI slowed from 2.2% yr to 2.0% yr in Jan, according to the flash estimate, its lowest since late 2010. Unemployment was steady at 11.7% in Dec, but with Nov revised down from 11.8%, that jobless rate is still a record high. The factory PMI was revised up from 47.5 to 47.9 in the final Jan report (Germany revised from 48.8 to 49.8 but France unrevised at 42.9).
UK factory PMI edged down from 51.2 to 50.8 in Jan, the first back to back readings >50 since March-April last year.
AUD and NZD Outlooks: Locally there’s only minor data today - Australian building permits and an inflation indicator.
NZD/USD 1 day: A test of key 0.8477 above is likely today, corrections supported at 0.8400.
NZD/USD 1 month: The positive trend since May remains intact as long as 0.8215 holds, targeting 0.8475 and beyond (0.8570 next, 0.8840 sometime this year).
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening today 2bp higher at 2.93%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 month: With the 2.94% medium term target almost attained, our next major target level is 3.18%, supported by improving NZ data and higher US yields
AUD/USD 1 day: 1.0360 below is vulnerable, the 1.0450-1.0475 area capping today.
AUD/USD 1 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle, awaiting a break higher.
AUD/NZD 1month: The break below 1.2400 points to 1.2100. The technical picture is consistent with relative data flow and central bank biases.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 4 Febriary 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change withoutnotice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantiall
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