Monday February 4, 2013 - 04:09:37 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 04-Feb-2013 -0356 GMT
Dow Jones (14009.79, +1.06%) rose higher after taking support near 13900 levels though the NFP came lower at 157K against the expected of 160K. Dow has some resistance near current levels (14000-150) on the Monthly charts, which if crossed then it becomes further bullish. With the recent economic data points (US GDP, NFP and the Unemployment) being slightly on the weaker side, the QE-3 is unlikely to stop in the near future.
A-Pac is mostly in the green following a strong sessions in the US markets. Australia (4935.70, -0.13%), Hang Seng (23856, +0.57%) and Taiwan (7908, +0.66%).
Shanghai (2428.05, +0.37%) has been rising well without experiencing much profit taking. It looks to be targeting 2480-2500 in the coming days, after which we can see some corrective dip. Till then it looks good.
Nikkei (11245.37, +0.48%) has no immediate over head resistance now and is likely to rise further towards 12000-200 levels in the coming days. Dollar-Yen (92.70) is looking good for a further rise towards 94-95 after which both the Nikkei and the pair can see some profit taking.
Nifty (5998.90, -0.59%) ended in the red and finally a close below 6000 was seen. Dow being strongly up on Friday might also help the Nifty open on the green but still a corrective dip towards 5925-00 looks likely to be seen.
Nymex Crude (97.57, -0.20%) is mildly lower within its overall upbeat mood and is targeting 101-103 in the coming sessions.
Brent (116.60, -0.14%) has risen very well in the past few days and we can say the rise has been better than Nymex. Brent has to be watched after it reaches 118.00 which if broken can put it into further bullish mode. The break might not happen before we see some profit taking near 118.00, we need to wait and watch.
Gold (1672.30) is continuing to trade mixed and ranged between 1625 and 1700.
Silver (31.83) failed to see strong break below 31 last week and is ranged between 31 and 32.30 over the last three days. 33.00-50 can be tested this week while above 31.
Copper (3.78) has broken its important Resistance near 3.75 and is now bullish for a rise to 3.85-90 and even higher levels going forward.
Euro and Swiss are strong while the Yen and Pound are weak against the Dollar. Aussie is mixed and ranged. The Dollar-Index (79.25) has come down last week and looks weak. It has very important/crucial Supports near 78.98 and 78.60 which if broken can drag it sharply lower going forward.
The Euro (1.3624) has risen sharply above its important 1.3500-30 Resistance region and looks bullish for a rise to 1.3815-30. Dollar-Yen (92.69) remains strong and can target 94.00-15 ahead of the BOJ Meeting next week (14-Feb-13). 92.00-91.50 is a good Support region which can limit the downside. The Euro-Yen Cross (126.30) has moved up strongly breaking above 123.10 (Fibonaaci Resistance) and can rise further to 128.70 and even 132 now.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9082) fell sharply last week and has a threat to fall further towards 0.8900-8850 while below the Resistance in 0.9140-70 region. The Pound (1.5701) tanked in the final trading sessions last week and is in a danger to fall further to 1.5300-250 if it breaks below 1.5600. Aussie (1.0423) is retaining its 1.0350-600 sideways range and the outcome of the RBA Meeting tomorrow could decide whether it holds above 1.0350 or not.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2383) has risen last week and can rise further to 1.2500 while it remains above 1.2350. DOllar-Rupee (53.19/20) had closed lower last week and can move down to test 52.80 in the coming days.
Credible rise in the US 10-Yr yield to 2.05%. The 30-Yr (3.24%) is testing our target of 3.25%. Some more upside of 10-25 bp should be possible. The Yield Curve too may continue to steepen, but maybe at a slower pace.
The Germany-US 2-Yr spread (-0.01%) is vacillating around the 0.0% level, after having risen from less than -0.3% in November. Some sideways consolidation is likely after the relentless rise. This could bring about a consolidation in the Euro-Dollar as well.
The Spain-Germany 10-Yr spread (3.54%) has moved up a bit within the 3.25-3.60% range we've been talking of. A test of 3.60% seems likely. This too could limit the Euro's upside in the near term. Overall, there is need for caution in Europe as the Spain and Italy 10-Yr yields (5.21% and 4.33%) have increased over the last few weeks, after being in a steady decline since Sep-12.
Watch the Greek 10-Yr (10.7%) carefully. If it manages to fall back below 10.39% from current levels, it would be good news. A rise past 10.90% might be bad news.
5:45 GMT or 12:15 IST IN Trade bal Pre
...Expected -19.05$ Bln ...Previous -17.67 $ Bln
...Actual 40.20...Previous 44.30
...Actual 4.2% ...Previous 4.2%
...Actual 0.20% ...Previous 0.6%
...Actual 53.20...Previous 54.70
...Actual 47.90 ...Previous 46.10
...Actual 50.80 ...Previous 51.20
...Actual 11.7% ...Previous 11.7%
...Actual 157 K ...Previous 196K
US Unemployment Rate
...Actual 7.9% ...Previous 7.8%
US Manufacturing ISM
...Actual 53.1 ...Previous 50.20
...Actual 50.50...Previous 50.40
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